Monsoon rain reached Kerala three days later than usual, according to reports from multiple news blocs. In June 2026, India received 99.5 mm of rainfall, far below the long‑term June average of 165.3 mm, resulting in a 39.8 percent deficit and marking the driest June the country has experienced in more than a decade (odishatv.in).

Analysts note that monsoon rains are essential for driving India’s $4 trillion economy (Al Jazeera). A 156‑year weather study indicates that the rains are permanently shifting to May (Bluesky), a change that brings less overall water but a dangerous paradox of intense flash floods to Kerala (Bluesky). The southwest monsoon begins each year because of a temperature difference between the Asian land mass and the Indian Ocean (The Guardian).

Forecasts for the monsoon’s near‑term outlook differ. One account from the India Meteorological Department says the monsoon may be over in 5‑6 days (India; also reported by The Hindu). Another account from the same department forecasts that the monsoon will continue in an active phase over central India, with a low‑pressure system over the Bay of Bengal set to boost rainfall across central and western regions for the next five days (India; also reported by Times of India). A further conflicting statement says the monsoon is advancing into northwest India, with full country coverage expected soon (India; also reported by Times of India).

Additional reports note that downpours hit southwest Thailand (The Guardian). The India Meteorological Department also indicated that conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into parts of the North Arabian Sea and some areas of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next two to three days (The Hindu).