THE HALFAX HEIMDALL AUGUR

Analysis-Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say <p>By Samia Nakhoul</p><p>BEIRUT, June 29 (Reuters) - A security deal between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a stalemate rather than resolving Israel's underlying conflict with Hezbollah by tying Israel's pullout from southern Lebanon to the Iran-aligned group's disarmament, a condition regional analysts and politicians say is unattainable.</p><p>At its core is a bargain few see as workable: Hezbollah has flatly rejected disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it.</p>

Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say <p>Disarmament of Hezbollah is unattainable because Lebanon can't enforce it amid sectarian tensions, experts say, which means that IDF troops could stay in the country indefinitely</p> <p>The post <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-lebanon-deal-may-entrench-stalemate-rather-than-end-war-analysts-say/">Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com">The Times of Israel</a>.</p> <figure><img src="https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2026/06/F260628AMA001-1024x640.jpg" title="Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say" border="0" width="160" height="100" class="type:primaryImage"></figure>

06292026 Counterpoints Full Israel and Lebanon have signed a landmark agreement that could pave the way for a long-term deal between the two countries. But can the process succeed without Hezbollah disarming? Has Hezbollah&apos;s confrontation with Israel served Lebanon&apos;s national interest? And will Israel ever withdraw from southern Lebanon?Melinda Nucifora is joined by David Daoud, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Mouin Rabbani, Managing Editor of Jadaliyya magazine and author of the upcoming book Gaza Apocalypse, and broadcaster and author Baria Alamuddin for a debate on the future of Lebanon, Hezbollah, and regional stability.

New Lebanon deal revives Jerusalem’s hopes of curbing Iran’s influence <p>Trilateral pact formalizes IDF coordination with Lebanese army and ties Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, but certainly doesn't guarantee peace on the northern border</p> <p>The post <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-lebanon-deal-revives-jerusalems-hopes-of-curbing-irans-influence/">New Lebanon deal revives Jerusalem&#8217;s hopes of curbing Iran&#8217;s influence</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com">The Times of Israel</a>.</p> <figure><img src="https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2026/06/AP26179337180292-1024x640.jpg" title="New Lebanon deal revives Jerusalem&#8217;s hopes of curbing Iran&#8217;s influence" border="0" width="160" height="100" class="type:primaryImage"></figure>

An Israel-Lebanon Agreement May Not Be Worth the Costs The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return. All eyes are on Gaza as Israel and Hamas inch toward a ceasefire in their months-long war. If and when a truce is reached, however, the Biden administration’s focus will likely turn to Lebanon, where it hopes to de-escalate amid fears of a full-scale war. Last week, several local and pan-Arab press outlets reported on Beirut’s unenthusiastic response to a proposal that Washington formulated in partnership with Paris and conveyed to Lebanese and Hezbollah officials via an unofficial French white paper. Although actual negotiations will not begin in earnest until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, the initial reception from Lebanon suggests that the chances for success are remote. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein and French ministerfor Europe and foreign affairs Stephane Sejourne have visited Beirut repeatedly in recent months to lay the groundwork for a joint de-escalation plan, culminating in the white paper. Building on…

Hanin Ghaddar: Lebanon turns against Hezbollah <p>After the US signs a dreadful MOU with Iran granting it control over Beirut's future, it then ushers in an unprecedented Israel-Lebanon agreement. Could real peace be on the way? </p> <p>The post <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/hanin-ghaddar-lebanon-turns-against-hezbollah/">Hanin Ghaddar: Lebanon turns against Hezbollah</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com">The Times of Israel</a>.</p> <figure><img src="https://static-cdn.toi-media.com/www/uploads/2026/07/Lazar-Focus-March-19-30-1024x640.jpg" title="Hanin Ghaddar: Lebanon turns against Hezbollah" border="0" width="160" height="100" class="type:primaryImage"></figure>

Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say A security deal between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a stalemate rather than resolving Israel’s underlying conflict with Hezbollah by tying Israel’s pullout from southern Lebanon to the Iran-aligned group’s disarmament, a condition regional analysts and politicians say is unattainable. At its core is a bargain few see as workable: Hezbollah has flatly rejected disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it. With Hezbollah unlikely to disarm, analysts say Israel has political cover to keep an open-ended military presence in southern Lebanon, which it invaded after Hezbollah fired at Israel on March 2 in solidarity with Tehran over the war in Iran.For all the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app. The deal leaves the Lebanese state trapped between obligations it cannot meet and sovereignty it cannot fully reclaim, the analysts say. The framework deal also collides with

Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war, analysts say <p>A <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/2011097">security deal</a> between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a stalemate rather than resolving Tel Aviv’s underlying conflict with Hezbollah by tying its pullout from southern Lebanon to the group’s disarmament, a condition regional analysts and politicians say is unattainable.</p> <p>At its core is a bargain few see as workable: Hezbollah has <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/2002787">flatly rejected</a> disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it.</p> <p>With Hezbollah unlikely to disarm, analysts say Israel has political cover to keep an open-ended military presence in southern Lebanon, which it <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1981537#:~:text=The%20death%20toll%20from%20Israel%E2%80%99s%20sustained%20attacks%20on%20Lebanon%20since%20March%202%20has%20climbed%20to%20at%20least%20687">invaded</a> after Hezbollah fired at Israel on March 2 in solidarity with Tehran over the war in Iran.</p> <p>The deal leaves the Lebanese state trapped between obligations it cannot meet and sovereignty it cannot fully reclaim, the analysts say.…

US-Iran deal leaves major Lebanon questions unresolved - Naharnet A deal between Washington and Tehran that ends the Israel-Hezbollah war leaves many issues in Lebanon unresolved, failing to mention Israel withdrawing from the country or an end to Tehran's support for the militant group. Under U.S. pressure, Lebanese officials have been holding direct talks with Israel aimed at reaching a separate agreement on ending the hostilities, but Beirut appeared to have been sidelined with the overnight announcement on the regional conflict. - What does the deal involve? - Details of the agreement to end the Middle East war on all fronts have not been made public, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have both said it includes Lebanon. Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war on March 2 with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that Lebanon says have killed more than 3,700 people and displaced more than one million others. An official source told AFP that "Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement or the time of the ceasefire". Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezb…

After war losses, Hezbollah seen gaining from Iran-US deal Iran's interim deal with the U.S. looks set ​to bolster Hezbollah's political and financial hand in Lebanon, with Tehran promising more funding for its ally once ‌cash ​starts to flow, according to four sources familiar with ties between Tehran and the group. A cash infusion to Hezbollah could help it recover from heavy wartime losses and deliver a setback to Israel, which dealt the Iran-backed group crushing blows in a 2024 war and has campaigned against sanctions relief for Tehran. The U.S.-Iranian memorandum of understanding (MoU), due to be signed on Friday, is expected to halt hostilities across all fronts, mediator Pakistan has said, although its terms have not been made public. The ‌halt to fighting -- at Iran's insistence -- includes Lebanon, where Hezbollah fired at Israel in solidarity with Tehran on March 2, igniting an Israeli offensive that has killed thousands and led Israel to invade the south, in a conflict that has unfolded in parallel to the wider U.S.-Iran confrontation. The situation in south Lebanon remains volatile. Iran warned Israel on Tuesday to expect an Iranian military response if it didn't st…

Enigmatic Entente: The Stalemate of Israel-Lebanon Security Deal A recent security agreement between Israel and Lebanon is raising concerns among regional analysts and politicians, who argue it may perpetuate a deadlock rather than resolve Israel's conflict with Hezbollah. The deal stipulates that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon is contingent on the disarmament of the Iran-aligned group, a condition broadly viewed as unattainable. Hezbollah has firmly rejected disarmament, and the Lebanese government lacks the capacity to enforce it. Analysts suggest this arrangement grants Israel the political leverage to maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely. The deal places Lebanon in a difficult position, as it is burdened with obligations it is unlikely to fulfill, while its sovereignty remains compromised. Despite being presented as a diplomatic breakthrough, the deal has spurred criticism and fears of exacerbating Lebanon's internal conflicts. Hezbollah officials have declared it null, while other political figures highlight that it does not safeguard Lebanon's rights. As long as the condition of Hezbollah's disarmament remains unattainable, the agreeme…

14 Points on the 14 Points: Assessing the Israel-Lebanon Framework ... This landmark document offers a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build real peace between Beirut and Jerusalem, but progress needs to be swift and visible given the threat of violent opposition from Iran and its local allies. After a rocky start to their fifth round of negotiations and a delay of several hours before the closing ceremony, Lebanon and Israel ultimately signed a “framework agreement” on June 26, marking a substantial step-up from the “statement of intent” they had been expected to endorse. This was the first accord between the two neighbors since the short-lived May 1983 peace agreement, and given its scope, ambition, and potential implications, it is perhaps the most significant since their armistice agreement seventy-seven years ago. Thetext of the agreementis divided into fourteen points, a structure that not only echoes the recentU.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, but also appears purposefully chosen to present an alternative path to that MOU in terms of addressing the Lebanon question. Here are fourteen observations on those fourteen points: 1. The term “framework agreement” was bo…

US-Iran deal leaves major Lebanon questions unresolved - New Age A deal between Washington and Tehran that ends the Israel-Hezbollah war leaves many issues in Lebanon unresolved, failing to mention Israel withdrawing from the country or an end to Tehran’s support for Hezbollah. Under US pressure, Lebanese officials have been holding direct talks with Israel aimed at reaching a separate agreement on ending the hostilities, but Beirut has appeared to have been sidelined with the overnight announcement on the regional conflict. What does the deal involve? Details of the agreement to end the war on all fronts have not been made public, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have both said that it includes Lebanon. Hezbollah drew the country into the war on March 2 with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran’s supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that killed more than 3,700 people and displaced more than one million others. An official source told AFP that ‘Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement or the time of the ceasefire’. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and intermediary for…

US-Iran deal leaves major Lebanon questions unresolved Under US pressure, Lebanese officials have been holding direct talks with Israel aimed at reaching a separate agreement on ending the hostilities, but Beirut appeared to have been sidelined with the overnight announcement on the regional conflict. AFP looks at the deal and the questions it raises in Lebanon. - What does the deal involve? - Details of the agreement to end the Middle East war on all fronts have not been made public, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have both said it includes Lebanon. Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war on March 2 with rocket fire at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader in US-Israeli strikes. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that Lebanon says have killed more than 3,700 people and displaced more than one million others. An official source told AFP that "Lebanon was not informed of the terms of the agreement or the time of the ceasefire". Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally and intermediary for the group, thanked Washington and Tehran for their "insistence on including... an essential and binding clause on halting th…

Israel and Lebanon are closer to peace than they appear Israeli soldiers watch as smoke rises following explosions in southern Lebanon, near the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from northern Israel, on April 28, 2026. (REUTERS/Shir Torem) WASHINGTON—On April 14, Israel and Lebanon held their highest-level talks in four decades and agreed to a temporary cease-fire (initially until April 26 and now extended for three weeks) to allow time for negotiations to run their course. The talks came only after US President Donald Trump pressured Israel to temporarily suspend attacks on Lebanon, in light of assertions by Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators that a cease-fire was necessary to continue US–Iran negotiations. Throughout the US–Iran conflict, Lebanon has repeatedly flashed in and out of the limelight as part of that broader puzzle. Trump now faces a choice. He may choose to renew the pressure on Israel to suspend strikes on its northern neighbor, either because of Lebanon’s potential to serve as a spoiler to any grand bargain with Iran or because of his independent desire to achieve a Lebanon-Israel peace. With either rationale, if Trump keeps up the pressure, then a lasting ce…

Analysis-Israel-Lebanon deal may entrench stalemate rather than end war ... Audio By Carbonatix By Samia Nakhoul BEIRUT, June 29 (Reuters) – A security deal between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a stalemate rather than resolving Israel’s underlying conflict with Hezbollah by tying Israel’s pullout from southern Lebanon to the Iran-aligned group’s disarmament, a condition regional analysts and politicians say is unattainable. At its core is a bargain few see as workable: Hezbollah has flatly rejected disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it. With Hezbollah unlikely to disarm, analysts say Israel has political cover to keep an open-ended military presence in southern Lebanon, which it invaded after Hezbollah fired at Israel on March 2 in solidarity with Tehran over the war in Iran. The deal leaves the Lebanese state trapped between obligations it cannot meet and sovereignty it cannot fully reclaim, the analysts say. The framework deal also collides with Lebanon’s political realities, asking a fragile sectarian state to confront the most powerful armed faction in the country despite a post–civil war system built on power-sharing rather than coe…