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IRAN threatened UNITED STATES in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Iran and Saudi Arabia: Fragile Managed Rivalry - AGSI
Iran and Saudi Arabia: Fragile Managed Rivalry - AGSI
Mar 13, 2023
Tehran and Riyadh have agreed to restore diplomatic relations, however, every actor who stands to lose from the agreement has strong incentives to sabotage it.
4 min read
Two middle powers in a small region, Iran and Saudi Arabia are strategic rivals. Yet under China’s auspices, Tehran and Riyadh are engaged in an effort to manage their rivalry, resulting in the March 10 trilateraldeclarationrestoring diplomatic relations. The prospects for the concord between Iran and Saudi Arabia in part depends on Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s ability to control their own proxies and propaganda apparatuses, which stand to lose from the agreement. The rapprochement’s success is also dependent upon the political will in Tehran and Riyadh to resist sabotage attempts by Israel, which wants to isolate Iran and may perhaps be aided in this effort by the United States.
The text of the declaration provides some indications into the crux of the problem between Iran and Saudi Arabia: Both states agreed to “resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions” and affirmed their “respect for the sovereignty of …
After the Iran War, No One Can Guarantee the Gulf's Security
After the Iran War, No One Can Guarantee the Gulf's Security
The US-Israeli war on Iran has severely weakened if not destroyed the
Pax Americana
, the US-led political, economic, and security structure that, despite numerous detours and failures, has helped to stabilize the Middle East since the 1990s. The war now appears to be in a tense state of suspended animation, primarily focused on the status of the Strait of Hormuz—an issue that was not even a
casus belli
at the start of the conflict. Ongoing
high-stakes negotiations
to end the conflict have so far failed to resolve most, if not all, of the most vital points, including the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Today, the United States can claim no decisive victory; Israel has used the conflict as a cover for its territorial expansion; and China has emerged as a potential peer competitor in the region.
The war has caused extensive damage. On top of the continuing
effects
of maximum-pressure sanctions by the United States, Iran has suffered
serious economic damage
, its military has been devastated, and thousands of civilians have been killed. Lebanon, a bystander to the conflict, has been repeatedly struck by Israeli ground inc…
Analysis: What does Israel want from the Iran war? Is it ... - CNN
Analysis: What does Israel want from the Iran war? Is it ... - CNN
A man stands in a residence destroyed by an airstrike in Tehran, on March 14.
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
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The US and Israel attacked Iran together at the same time. But as the war
drags into its third week
, it is becoming clear the two countries have some differences in how they see the war proceeding.
In order to better understand what Israel wants from the war compared with what we know about what the Trump administration wants, I spoke with Daniel Shapiro, an Atlantic Council fellow who was US ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration and was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy during the Biden administration.
Our phone conversation, edited for length and style, is below.
Do Israel and the US have the same objectives in the war as we’ve seen it play out so far?
SHAPIRO:
Israel and the US have a number of overlapping objectives, but there is some divergence, and probab…
Should Congress Prohibit Federal Funding for the War in Iran?
Should Congress Prohibit Federal Funding for the War in Iran?
April 13, 2026byScot Wilson
Five weeks into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the human and economic toll continues to mount. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed in combat and more than 200 wounded; Iranian authorities report at least 2,076 people killed and more than 26,500 wounded inside Iran since strikes began on February 28, 2026. Israel has reported approximately 25 fatalities and over 6,400 civilian injuries from Iranian missile and drone attacks, and additional deaths have been recorded in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of the world’s oil typically flows—has driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel and pushed the national average for gasoline in the United States past $4 per gallon, with diesel above $5.60. Independent analysts estimate the direct cost to the U.S. Treasury at roughly $35 billion to $45 billion in the first month, and the Pentagon has formally requested a $200 billion supplemental from Congress on top of a proposed $500 billion increase to the fiscal 2027 defense bu…
US, Iran sign memorandum of understanding ahead of schedule to end the war, reports say
US, Iran sign memorandum of understanding ahead of schedule to end the war, reports say
US, Iran sign memorandum of understanding ahead of schedule to end the war, reports say
Was this war worth it? Well, the Pentagon said weeks ago that the president's military objectives had been achieved, but experts tell me some of those gains were overstated. Destroy the missile threat. Destroy the navy. No nukes. That's Secretary Pete Hegseth outlining the Trump administration's goals in the first week of the war with Iran, goals he said were achieved back in April. Epic fury decimated Iran's military and rendered. It combat ineffective for years to come. Retired Admiral Mark Montgomery says Iran's navy has indeed been destroyed. They're going to have *** challenge rebuilding that, but Iran still has some drone and missile capabilities. They can still harass their. Arab neighbors, they can still threaten Israel, though he says the threat of Iran obtaining *** nuclear weapon has been reduced, at least for now. We've set back their program in *** total of 5 to 10 years, but notably, officials say key details about the future of Iran's nuclear program still need to be negotiated. The initial agr…
Analysis-US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals alarmed
Analysis-US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals alarmed
<p>By Samia Nakhoul</p><p>BEIRUT, June 18 (Reuters) - The U.S.-Iran agreement — the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution — is being hailed by its backers as the deal of the century. </p><p>But for Tehran's adversaries across the Middle East — from Israel to Gulf states and factions in Lebanon — it looks more like the curse of the century: an accord that could leave Iran more secure, more legitimate and ultimately more influential.</p>
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Iran: Any Miscalculation Will Open the Door to Action
Iran: Any Miscalculation Will Open the Door to Action
Iran: Any Miscalculation Will Open the Door to Action
02 February 2026
11:49 AM
Foreign Policy
WANA News
WANA (Feb 02) –
Iran’s Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces announced that Tehran has revised its defense doctrine following recent security developments, warning that any miscalculation by opposing parties could trigger a swift and decisive response.
Major General Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi made the remarks during a nighttime visit to assess the readiness of one of the armed forces units. Referring to rising regional tensions, he said the motivation and preparedness of Iran’s armed forces to confront external threats are at their highest level, stressing that “any miscalculation will give Iran the green light to act.”
Pointing to the history of confrontation between Iran and the United States, Mousavi emphasized that pressure policies and hostile actions over past decades have not weakened Iran, but have repeatedly led to failures in the opponent’s strategic calculations. He added that narratives promoted in recent months portraying Iran as weakened are now at odds with realities on the ground.
Reviewing a number of…
War Without Endgame: The Strategic Confusion of the 2026 Iran Conflict
War Without Endgame: The Strategic Confusion of the 2026 Iran Conflict
Wars are expensive laboratories, and the Iran conflict has generated lessons that will shape American military investment and doctrine for a generation. The Iran War of 2025–2026 was the culmination of more than two decades of escalating confrontation over Iran's nuclear program, regional proxy activities, and strategic posture in the Persian Gulf. What began in 2002 as a crisis over clandestine uranium enrichment facilities resolved, after cycles of sanctions, diplomacy, and covert action, into a sustained U.S.-Israeli air campaign against the full spectrum of Iranian military capability.Operation Midnight Hammer, launched in June 2025, struck hardened nuclear sites.Operation Epic Fury, the broader campaign beginning in late 2025 and continuing through March 2026, targeted missile production, air defense networks, IRGC leadership, and naval infrastructure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a targeted strike in February 2026 — the most consequential leadership decapitation in the conflict's history. By late March 2026, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff had presented Tehran with a15-point frameworkfor a…
Diplomacy or Defiance: Iran’s Rulers Face Existential Choice After US ...
Diplomacy or Defiance: Iran’s Rulers Face Existential Choice After US ...
Weakened by war and diplomatic deadlock, Iran’s clerical elite stands at a crossroads: defy pressure to halt its nuclear activity and risk further Israeli and US attack, or concede and risk a leadership fracture.
For now, the republic establishment is focusing on immediate survival over longer-term political strategy. A fragile ceasefire ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli air strikes, followed by US strikes on three Iranian nuclear installations.
Both sides declared victory but the war exposed the military vulnerabilities and punctured the image of deterrence maintained by a major Middle East power and Israel's arch regional foe. Three Iranian insiders told Reuters the political establishment now views negotiations with the US - aimed at resolving a decades-long dispute over its nuclear ambitions - as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril.
The strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, which included killings of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists, shocked Tehran, kicking off just a day before a planned sixth round of talks with Washington.…
The US has long used economic coercion to achieve foreign policy ...
The US has long used economic coercion to achieve foreign policy ...
The Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz has largely brought oil traffic to a halt, hitting petroleum-exporting countries hard.
Asghar Besharati / Getty Images
Two months after the United States, along with Israel,
launched a war against Iran
, that conflict appears far from a lasting resolution.
Much commentary on the protracted nature of the conflict has centered on the limits of both the
military
and
diplomatic approaches to the war
. But the conflict has also exposed another key reality: the limits of U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. has been the world’s preeminent economic and military power for decades, certainly since the end of the Cold War. It is at the center of much global financial activity and
has a military budget well beyond China, the closest competitor
.
Leveraging that power, the U.S. has long used economic coercion to achieve its foreign policy goals, whether
against North Korea under the Kim regime
, Russia
over its invasion of Ukraine
or
Iran
since the 1979 revolution that overthrew the U.S.-allied shah.
But as U.S. power in the world has slowly declined amid the rise of China and an increasingly …
Iran’s Ceasefire Runs Out August 21. The Rest Of The Middle ... - Forbes
Iran’s Ceasefire Runs Out August 21. The Rest Of The Middle ... - Forbes
Business
Energy
Iran’s Ceasefire Runs Out August 21. The Rest Of The Middle East Isn't Even On A Clock
By
Güney Yıldız
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Contributor.
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I focus on the nexus of AI adoption, energy, and geopolitics.
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Summary
Indirect US-Iran talks in Doha have stalled, with Tehran refusing to return until a $6 billion frozen funds dispute is resolved, hindering a ceasefire-to-settlement deal. This highlights the complex, fragmented nature of Middle East risk, which cannot be viewed as a single entity. Iran operates under a temporary US license for oil transactions expiring August 21, indicating ongoing instability. Syria's economic opening predates recent conflicts, while Iraq is embroiled in a domestic anti-corruption purge. Lebanon faces internal strife over a peace framework with Israel, rejected by Hezbollah. The Gulf, though legally unchanged, now assumes direct Iranian strike risks. Investors m…
Curse of the century? How US-Iran deal handed Tehran a… - inkl
Curse of the century? How US-Iran deal handed Tehran a… - inkl
When the United States and Israel struck Iran in February, plunging the Middle East into one of its most dangerous crises in decades, the objective was clear: cripple Tehran's power and force the Islamic Republic onto the back foot.
Get breaking news anytime, anywhere. Download the TOI app now!
Months later, after thousands of deaths, soaring energy prices and one of the largest military confrontations the Middle East has seen in decades, Iran remains standing — and may have emerged with a stronger hand than before.
What MAGA are calling the “deal of the century” may look very different from the capitals that have spent years trying to contain Iran. The interim agreement signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has halted the devastating three-month war but many analysts see something else emerging: a stronger, more legitimate Iran.
The 14-point agreement grants a 60-day window for negotiations on a permanent settlement while preserving the ceasefire in Iran and Lebanon. For Tehran, it offers the prospect of renewed oil exports, economic recovery and international recognition afte…
One view of Iranian strategy - Marginal REVOLUTION
One view of Iranian strategy - Marginal REVOLUTION
Some observations and comments on Trump and Israel’s war on Iran:
1. Tehran is not looking for a ceasefire and has rejected outreach from Trump. The reason is that they believe they committed a mistake by agreeing to the ceasefire in June – it only enabled the US and Israel to restock and remobilize to launch war again.
If they agree to a ceasefire now, they will only be attacked again in a few months.
2. For a ceasefire to be acceptable, it appears difficult for Tehran to agree to it
until the cost to the US has become much higher than it currently is
. Otherwise, the US will restart the war at a later point, the calculation reads.
3. Accordingly, Iran has shifted its strategy. It is striking Israel, but very differently from the June war. There is a constant level of attack throughout the day rather than a salvo of 50 missiles at once. Damage will be less, but that isn’t a problem because Tehran has concluded that Israel’s pain tolerance is very high –
as long as the US stays in the war
.
So the focus shifts to the US.
4. From the outset, and perhaps surprisingly, Iran has been targeting US bases in the region, including against…
The political consequences of the Iran war - Brookings Institution
The political consequences of the Iran war - Brookings Institution
Research
This piece is part of the “Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world” series, which features original analyses and policy recommendations by experts on the immediate and prospective long-term fallout from the 2026 Iran war.
IfRobert Kaganand other early opponents of the war in Iran are right, the conflict will end in defeat for the United States, an outcome that will irreversibly weaken America’s global standing and will “set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes alike adjust to America’s failure.” Even when a war begins with popular support, as many do, failing to achieve its key objectives can affect public sentiment in ways that constrain the ability of leaders to undertake future military action. And when wars are undertaken without initial public support, as the latest conflict with Iran was, the public reaction against those who started and supported it can be harsh.
It is too early to predict the outcome of the war with certainty, but the United States is farther away from achieving its objectives than the Trump administration has been willing to admit. Although the pres…
Where did the experts go? State Department cuts limit the Iran war ...
Where did the experts go? State Department cuts limit the Iran war ...
Spotlights
Where did the experts go? State Department cuts limit the Iran war effort
FILE - State Department employees applaud as their colleagues walk through the lobby of the State Department headquarters in the Harry S. Truman Building, July 11, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, file)
In the escalating war in Iran, the State Department’s
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
would ordinarily be at the center of the geopolitical fray.
Typically led by a veteran diplomat, the bureau’s role would be to coordinate U.S. foreign policy across an 18-country region, much of which has become a
chaotic battlefield scarred by drone and missile strikes
as the U.S. and Israel remain locked in conflict with Iran.
The Trump administration for a time put Mora Namdar, a lawyer of Iranian descent with limited management experience, in charge before later moving her to a different post. One of her credentials was her contribution to Project 2025, a conservative think tank’s blueprint for the second Trump administration. Namdar’s last Senate-confirmed predecessor was a longtime Middle East expert who had been with the …
Collapsed US-Iran talks expose a broken global order - The Federal
Collapsed US-Iran talks expose a broken global order - The Federal
Thecancellation of US-Iran talksin the Swiss village of Obbürgen was presented as a temporary diplomatic setback. Officials spoke of scheduling difficulties, ceasefire violations, and the need to create better conditions for negotiations.
Yet, the significance of what happened extends far beyond a missed meeting. The collapse of these talks reveals a deeper crisis—one that has been building for years within the institutions charged with maintaining international peace and security.
The talks, meticulously arranged to implement a peace dealfollowing the electronic signingof a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on June 17, were derailed byyet another Israeli ceasefire violationand the inevitable Hezbollah response. But the real cancellation happened long ago—it was the cancellation of any pretence that international institutions serve the cause of justice rather than the geopolitical ambitions of Washington and its allies.
Consider the central figure in this diplomatic theatre: Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who now audaciously campaigns for the position of…
Why Iran Will Escalate: U.S. Military Strikes and the Risk of a Quagmire
Why Iran Will Escalate: U.S. Military Strikes and the Risk of a Quagmire
Why Iran Will Escalate
U.S. Military Strikes and the Risk of a Quagmire
Nate Swanson
February 24, 2026
A fighter jet preparing to launch from a U.S. aircraft carrier, the Arabian Sea, February 2026
U.S. Navy / Reuters
NATE SWANSON
is Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He was Director for Iran at the National Security Council between 2022 and 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
More by Nate Swanson
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Why Iran Will Escalate
U.S. Military Strikes and the Risk of a Quagmire
Nate Swanson
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Experts react: The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal ...
Experts react: The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal ...
An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of an Iranian missile, in Tehran, Iran, on February 19, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters Connect)
“Let the oil flow!” With those words on Sunday evening, US President Donald Trump
announced
that the United States had reached an agreement to end the war with Iran after more than one hundred days and open the Strait of Hormuz, with the official signing set to occur on June 19. Shortly after, Iranian officials
confirmed
that the two sides had finalized a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would remove the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and extend the current ceasefire.
As details emerge, our experts are sharing their insights on what we know—and still don’t know—about the deal, what it all means, and what to expect next. We’ll update this post as we learn more and additional expert contributions roll in.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
Nate Swanson: Watch for a “delta” between the MOU’s aspirations and a final deal
Landon Derentz: Don’t be so sure about a fast return to normal for energy markets
Josh Lipsky: These are the big questions markets—and US al…
The Iran War and an Emerging Geopolitical Order
The Iran War and an Emerging Geopolitical Order
Stay updated and subscribe to our newsletters
An International System in Transition:The world is shifting from an international system with known boundaries to a new global order whose rules have yet to be defined. The Iran war has accelerated this transition, but did not cause it.
No Leader Has Emerged:No major power has demonstrated the political will or legitimacy to lead a coordinated response, pointing to a failure of global governance.
Security is Being Redefined:National security no longer encompasses military deterrence alone. It also includes supply chains, semiconductors, digital infrastructure, and AI capacity, which have become equally decisive in determining state power and influence.
Gulf States Face a Dilemma:The Gulf states’ energy wealth and geographic centrality grant them considerable negotiating weight in a multipolar order, but these same advantages expose them to disproportionate risks in periods of escalation.
The US-Israel-Iran war cannot be viewed as a passing regional crisis or a clash between competing powers in a limited arena, but rather as a pivotal moment in contemporary political history. The worl…
Between a fatwa and war: how Iran makes sense of its nuclear capability
Between a fatwa and war: how Iran makes sense of its nuclear capability
Between a fatwa and war: how Iran makes sense of its nuclear capability
The Hindu
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·
May 03, 2026
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· By Vasudevan Mukunth
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What to know about Between a fatwa and war: how Iran makes sense of its nuclear capability
President Donald Trump to abandon its nuclear programme, Iran has “vowed” to protect its nuclear stockpile.
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What happened
President Donald Trump to abandon its nuclear programme, Iran has “vowed” to protect its nuclear stockpile.
Why it matters
At the same time, former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei disapproved of the use of nuclear weapons on religious grounds.
Common ground
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons — NPT for short — discourages countries from developin…
The United States and Iran Must Overcome Four Challenges for Nuclear ...
The United States and Iran Must Overcome Four Challenges for Nuclear ...
Source: Getty
The challenges from previous negotiations reveal how much needs to be done.
Between April and May 2025, the United States and Iran engaged in five rounds of nuclear negotiations, with a sixth round scheduled in mid-June. Two days before that round was set to begin, on June 13, Israel attacked Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and personnel, among other targets, with American assistance. Nine days later, the United States directly intervened in what became known as the Twelve-Day War by bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. Throughout the war, Tehran retaliated by striking Israeli military and civilian sites with drones and missiles. On June 24, Washington brokered a ceasefire after Tehran launched missiles at an American air base in Qatar. In Iran, the Israeli attackskilledseveral nuclear scientists and senior military commanders. They alsokilled1,190 people, injured 4,475 of them, anddisplacedtens of thousands more. In Israel, Iranian drones and missilesstruckmilitary and civilian sites, despite the country’s advanced air defenses. They alsokilledat least …
Hegseth Doesn't Deny $200 Billion Request From Congress For Iran War ...
Hegseth Doesn't Deny $200 Billion Request From Congress For Iran War ...
Breaking
Business
‘It Takes Money To Kill Bad Guys’: Hegseth Doesn’t Deny Pentagon’s $200 Billion Iran War Funding Request
By
Sara Dorn
,
Forbes Staff.
Sara Dorn is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics.
Follow Author
Mar 19, 2026, 09:57am EDT
Mar 19, 2026, 11:41am EDT
Topline
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth didn’t deny Thursday that the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion in additional funding for the war in Iran, telling lawmakers the figure “could move,” teeing up a potential partisan battle in Congress as the war has become increasingly complex and politically risky for President Donald Trump.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth provides updates on military operations in Iran during a press briefing at the Pentagon on March 19, 2026 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Key Facts
Hegseth said, “I think that number could move, obviously,” when asked by a reporter about the report for the funding request in The Washington Post a day earlier, adding, “it takes money to kill bad guys.”
The Pentagon has reportedly asked the White House to seek $200 billion from Congress to fund th…
How long will the Iran war last? Experts weigh in on the debate
How long will the Iran war last? Experts weigh in on the debate
In this article
Since the U.S. and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran last weekend, Washington has been keen to stress that the military action will be over in a matter of weeks and won't turn into a so-called forever war.
But experts say the U.S. could easily get bogged down in "Operation Epic Fury" if the Iranian regime proves more resilient than expected.
"What we're seeing is going to be more complicated than the White House may have hoped," Suzanne Maloney, Brookings Institution vice president and director of foreign policy, told CNBC Tuesday.
"Obviously, the start of the conflict appeared to be tremendously successful with the very quick announcement that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, had been killed, that was a huge breakthrough in many respects and the U.S. and Israel have been able to do immense damage to Iran's military capabilities."
"But the day after is going to be immensely complicated as well, and I am not optimistic that we're going to see a quick end to this conflict, because the Iranians are escalating across the region and that is their long-standing game plan," she …
How Trump's war on Iran could succeed — or go disastrously wrong
How Trump's war on Iran could succeed — or go disastrously wrong
People watch as smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026.
AP
The Middle East
Donald Trump
Pete Hegseth
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Pete Hegseth on Monday showed the bombast typical of the shock and awe start of America’s wars as he promised victory
over Iran
.
“We will finish this on ‘America first’ conditions of President Trump’s choosing, nobody else’s, as it should be,” the defense secretary said at the Pentagon.
But his comment fatefully recalled another promise, made in 2001.
“This conflict was begun on the timing and terms of others; it will end in a way and at an hour of our choosing,” President George W. Bush told a nation traumatized by the 9/11 attacks. Shortly afterward, he took America
into wars
that lasted for most of two decades.
History’s echo will only fuel fears that this administration is failing to remember the bloody lessons of the recent past.
The size of Donald Trump’s gamble in launching a war
alongside Israel
that has already led to the assassination of
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
is encapsulat…
Tehran rejects US terms as hardliners push escalation
Tehran rejects US terms as hardliners push escalation
In Mashhad, firebrand Friday prayer leader Ahmad Alamolhoda claimed that “US Army infantry is responsible for rising prices.” He later said the remark was metaphorical, arguing that the war had triggered hyperinflation and that “profiteers and the main culprits behind rising prices are the US army’s infantry.”
Earlier in the week, Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline daily Kayhan, wrote that “rising prices and hoarding are the products of the enemy’s infiltration in the government.”
While Iran’s armed forces were “working miracles,” he argued, the economy had been left undefended, allowing enemies to undermine battlefield gains.
Shariatmadari, who for decades attacked previous administrations over inflation and economic mismanagement, remained notably quiet during the ultraconservative governments of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ebrahim Raisi.
In 2024, he claimed rising prices had “nothing to do with the performance of the government or parliament,” describing inflation as part of a foreign conspiracy.
Last week, he questioned why parliament had stopped monitoring the government’s performance. Days later, lawmakers hel…
Is might right?
Is might right?
<p>“HOW did the world’s richest nation armed with the most powerful military arrive at this strategic defeat?” <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" class="link--external" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/opinion/iran-war-us-military-power.html">asks</a> <em>New York Times</em> writer W.J. Hennigan.</p>
<p>Quoting Donald Trump in his analysis for the same paper, David E. Sanger captures the American president’s bravado: “There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.”</p>
<p>Contrary to Trump’s declaration, the Iranians have not only survived a war with the world’s most powerful military but have also found themselves in a position to celebrate. “Iran is actually stronger now relative to their position in the Middle East than they were prior to this war,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Trump, he said, was “divorced from reality”.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/2009004">14-point agreement</a> between Washington and Tehran appears more like a temporary stabilisation mechanism reached after a costly confrontation. The immediate objective seems to be to restore stability in the Gulf rather than resolv…
The War on Iran: A Conversation - Boston Review
The War on Iran: A Conversation - Boston Review
Published in our Spring 2026 issue
This roundtable appears in our Spring 2026 issue under the headline “Imperial Anxieties.”
On Monday, April 6,
Boston Review
convened a panel of distinguished scholars of Iranian politics, history, and culture to discuss the war on Iran initiated by the United States and Israel in late February.
The following is an edited transcript of the event, moderated by Alex Shams. The panelists discuss the geopolitics of American and Israeli aggression, the long history of Western intervention in the region, reactions from within Iran and the Iranian diaspora, and the fate of struggles for freedom and democracy “under the boot of empire.”
Alex Shams:
More than 3,500 people have been killed in Iran since this unprovoked war of aggression began, in addition to nearly 1,500 people in Lebanon. All of us on this panel have loved ones in the region, and I just want to start by acknowledging that this is a very difficult time.
As with the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq in 2003, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have invoked vaguely preemptive rationales in response to unspecified “imminent” and “existe…
War in Iran: Who wins and who loses? | Centre for European Reform
War in Iran: Who wins and who loses? | Centre for European Reform
The attack on Iran by the US and Israel is good news for Russia but bad news for Europe, including Ukraine, and ultimately for the US itself. China could emerge as a long-term winner. Europeans must look after their own interests, regardless of Trump’s wrath.
In launching a war of aggression against Iran on February 28th 2026, the US and Israel have caused renewed chaos in the Middle East, after a few months of relative stability following the US-brokered ceasefire agreement in Gaza. US president Donald Trump seems not to have considered what the war’s wider effects might be, or its winners and losers; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not care.
US president Donald Trump seems not to have considered what the wider effects of war on Iran might be, or its winners and losers; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not care.
The winnersRussia seems likely to be the biggest winner, in several ways. First, higher oil and gas prices will boost Russian export revenues, enabling the regime to ease pressure on the civilian economy, and to keep ploughing money into the war against Ukraine. Global oil pric…
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out ... - Atlantic Council
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out ... - Atlantic Council
A banner of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on a street, after he was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Saturday, in Tehran, Iran, March 1, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY
What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the
US-Israeli military campaign
launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will radiate across the region and the world. So we turned to our regional network of experts to assess the conflict’s expanding impact.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
Israel: Echoes of Purim in a diminishing threat
The United Arab Emirates: Closer to the US-Israeli position than it wants to be
The Gulf: Iran is losing credibility with its attacks
The Gulf: Mediation has become unappealing
Iraq: An opportunity to reestablish its sovereignty
Lebanon: Hezbollah’s aims remain uncertain
Turkey: Bracing for impact in security, the economy, and diplomacy
Palestinian territories: Losing the world’s attention yet again
I…
Almasirah:Any Enemy Miscalculation Will Be Met with 'Unprecedented ...
Almasirah:Any Enemy Miscalculation Will Be Met with 'Unprecedented ...
Major General Hatami was speaking on Tuesday at a meeting between senior Iranian Army commanders and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on the eve of the 47th anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.
He underscored the close integration of defense and diplomacy in safeguarding Iran’s national interests.
According to Hatami, defense and diplomacy are “not only interdependent but are essentially one and the same thing operating effectively against a defiant enemy that seeks to undermine the interests of the Iranian nation.”
He expressed optimism that, with full coordination between the two, the country’s officials will be able to fully safeguard the rights of the nation.
“We, as the army of the Islamic Republic of Iran, are fully prepared, and we know that the enemy only understands the language of power,” he said, adding that the Armed Forces are now at a higher level of defensive readiness.
“If they commit any miscalculation,” he warned, “they will undoubtedly receive a response that they have neither seen nor experienced before.”
His remarks came amid a signi…
Military Analysis of the War With Iran | Council on Foreign Relations
Military Analysis of the War With Iran | Council on Foreign Relations
Event date
Wednesday
April 29, 2026
Speakers
Kelly A. Grieco
Senior Fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center
Frederick "Ben" Hodges
Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe
Philip M. Breedlove
Distinguished Professor of the Practice and CETS Senior Fellow, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs; Former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Max Boot
CFR Expert
Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Presider
Robert Danin
Principal, Georgetown Global Strategies; Senior Advisor, Inter-Mediate; Counselor, Middle East, Dragoman; CFR Member
Defense analysts and former military leaders discuss the current state of the war from a security perspective, providing their expertise on the challenges on the ground.
DANIN: Well, hello, everyone. I’m Rob Danin. I’m a principal and Georgetown Global Strategies, and I had the honor of being a senior fellow at CFR for over ten years, and I’ll be presiding over today’s discussion.
Today we’ll be looking at the military aspect of the Iran war and the strategic perspectiv…
Freedom Talk, War Risk: America's Iran Playbook - Fair Observer
Freedom Talk, War Risk: America's Iran Playbook - Fair Observer
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
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Iran is never a simple subject in Washington. It is easy to point to Tehran’s own failures and stop there. But that move turns every American threat into a moral project by default, and it lets policymakers avoid a harder audit: what US pressure does in practice, and what it reliably produces.
Right now, that audit matters. The US says it
wants
diplomacy with Iran, with indirect talks in Oman restarting after the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent US
strikes
on Iranian nuclear sites. At the same time, US force posture around Iran has visibly
thickened
: a carrier strike group, additional destroyers and an expanding mix of aircraft at regional bases. Even when officials insist the goal is “leverage,” a buildup is still a buildup — and it changes incentives on all sides.
Freedom as framing
American officials often speak about Iran in the language of solidar…
IRAN provided aid ISLAMIC in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate - Foreign Affairs
When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate - Foreign Affairs
When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate
Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do
Hussein Banai
June 19, 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, December 2025
Jonathan Ernst / Reuters
HUSSEIN BANAI
is Associate Professor of International Studies at the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies at Indiana University, Bloomington, and a co-author of
Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the U.S.-Iran Conflict
.
More by Hussein Banai
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Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do
Hussein Banai
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US-Iranian war: The limits of hubris - NewsclickNG
US-Iranian war: The limits of hubris - NewsclickNG
US-Iranian war: The limits of hubris
Editorial
By
Editor
On
Mar 9, 2026
187
Share
T
he sneak attack launched penultimate Saturday against Iran, after a spell of saber-rattling, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, many members of his household and dozens of Iranian officials, marked the limit of hubris that has shaped the presidency of Donald Trump of the United States of America and the tenure of his ally, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
The unprecedented “decapitation” of the Islamic Republic’s leadership and the torrential rain of strikes that have followed speak volumes about the two leaders’ bohemian, mercurial and eccentric tendencies since taking power.
The precipitous US-Israeli joint strikes, which have killed over 1,000 people, including more than 150 schoolchildren in Iran, have fundamentally upended Iran’s power structure and plunged the Middle East into another round of volatility.
The attacks have abruptly sundered Khamenei’s over 36 years of despotic rule. His killing has left a big power vacuum in Tehran. With the late Iranian leader’s extremely antagonistic stance towards the US and the …
Full text of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's letter to the ...
Full text of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's letter to the ...
By Masoud Pezeshkian
Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter, addressing the American people, calling on them to question the motives of the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.
Below is the full text of his letter.
_________________________________________________
“In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful
“To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:
“Iran — by this very name, character, and identity — is one of the oldest continuous civilisations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers — and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbours — Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.
“The Iranian people harbour no enmity toward other nat…
Iran plays with fire, but calculates Trump will hold back - RTL
Iran plays with fire, but calculates Trump will hold back - RTL
With its defiant strikes on ships, Iran is making a paradoxical and explosively high-risk calculation -- that it can boost its long-term deterrence through actions that invite new US attacks.
Iran, experts say, is also expecting that Trump, whatever his anger and bravado, does not want a return to all-out war, which could further spike oil prices and alienate US voters months before congressional elections.
Iran learned from the war launched by the United States and Israel on February 28 that its ultimate card is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway for one-fifth of the world's oil.
"They want recognition of Iran basically having control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is their bottom line. That is their leverage with the United States and the West that has replaced earlier enriching higher and higher levels of uranium," said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
"Fundamentally, they think time is on their side. They can suffer more than the Americans and the Gulf and that's what they're gambling on," he said.
Trump has been declaring ceasefires with Iran since April 8, upsetting Israel, a…
Israel and the U.S. Delivered a Blow to Iran. It Could Come Back ...
Israel and the U.S. Delivered a Blow to Iran. It Could Come Back ...
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S
hortly after the end
of the Iran-Iraq War, the United States Institute of Peace held an event in Washington, D.C., to discuss the Middle East’s delicate prospects. Panelists suggested ever more intricate ways to give regional peace a chance, until the neoconservative Michael Ledeen spoke out heretically. “You have heard the case for peace,” he said. “I rise to speak on behalf of war.” He said that the conflict, which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and killed perhaps a million people, had been “a good war.” And he said that any “peace” between the United States and a government as malevolent as Iran’s would be a sham, and a prelude to more war. Peace is what happens “when one side imposes conditions on another,” Ledeen told me in 2013. He said it is not enough for both sides to stop fighting. One of them must lose. Ledeen
died in May
, well into his fifth decade of arguing against peace, or at least a sham peace, with Iran.
Explore the October 2…
The Iran War Strategy the U.S. Is Not Pursuing
The Iran War Strategy the U.S. Is Not Pursuing
Two weeks ago, in“We Bombed the Wrong Target,”I argued that Operation Epic Fury had addressed the headline, Iran’s nuclear program, while leaving the story largely untouched: Tehran’s regional proxy network and its underlying strategy of asymmetric resistance. I warned that “the United States has addressed the headline. It now faces the story, and it does not appear to have a strategy ready for it.” That assessment has aged poorly only in one sense: the situation has deteriorated faster than anticipated.
Fourteen days into Operation Epic Fury,seven American service members are deadand approximately 140 more have been wounded. Iran haseffectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil above $100 per barrel. A U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile, operating ondecade-old targeting data,likely killed more than 170 schoolgirls in Minab, the deadliest civilian casualty event for the U.S. military in recent decades. A new Iranian supreme leader,Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC and hostile to diplomatic compromise, has been installed. And the Trump administrationcannot coherently articulate what victory looks likeor when the war ends.
This ar…
Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world - Brookings
Blowback: How the Iran war may change the world - Brookings
Experts from across Brookings analyze the long-term implications of the war and provide policy recommendations for decisionmakers in Washington and around the world.
More than 100 days have passed since the United States and Israel launched ambitious joint military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had served as the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader for nearly 37 years, along with dozens of senior military and political officials. But the decapitation of Iran’s leadership did not collapse its regime, which has remained firmly in control and began retaliating almost immediately. Tehran’s missile and drone counterstrikes targeted Israel and the Gulf states, U.S. military bases, and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the strategic chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas supplies typically pass.
However and whenever the conflict ends, the Iran war will have major implications for the evolving international security and economic order. For that reason, consistent with the Brookings Institution’s mission to …
Iran War: Winners and Losers - Global Issues
Iran War: Winners and Losers - Global Issues
Iran War: Winners and Losers
Opinion
by
A. K. Abdul Momen
(
new jersey, usa
)
Thursday, March 26, 2026
Inter Press Service
NEW JERSEY, USA, March 26 (IPS) - Who benefits from a war of choice against Iran? The immediate political winners may include President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But if the war continues for a longer period, the political consequences for both Trump and Netanyahu could be uncertain. However, the most consistent beneficiaries are defense contractors, defense manufacturers and military lobbyists, who profit regardless of the outcome.
A. K. Abdul Momen
The primary losers are the countries of the Middle East and the broader Muslim world. Most importantly, the residents and citizens of Iran, Israel and its neighborhood countries are most directly affected by the relentless bombardment, pounding and missile attacks besides the soldiers of both sides. Millions of them are uprooted from their homes, spend nightmares till the war is over.
Despite vast reserves of oil and gas, the very engines of global prosperity—many nations across the region continue to face instability, poverty, and insecurity. …
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
To Be or Not To Be: Iran-US War and Lessons for the Global South
To Be or Not To Be: Iran-US War and Lessons for the Global South
What did U.S. President Donald Trump get wrong after deciding to attack Iran? And what did he get right? What made him attack Iran? And what are the implications for the “rest”, especially the “Global South”?
Donald Trump’s foundational and fundamental “error” lay in the conceptual, emotional and spiritual (or mystical) premises of modern-day Iran. These do not lie in historical Persia but in the foundational and seminal currents of Shia Islam: the day of Karbala (Ashura).
Owing to the schism in Islam on account of “succession issues” after the death of the Prophet of Islam (PBUH), political permutations and combinations led, among other things, to the murder of the Prophet’s grandson, Imam Hussein (AS), at Karbala.
Besieged by the forces of his opponent Yazid, and overwhelmed by superior military capabilities and numbers, Imam Hussein (AS) and his small band of followers chose to fight and resist Yazid.
While the outcome of the battle at Karbala, where hunger and thirst were weaponized against Imam Hussein (AS), his family and followers, was almost foreordained, Imam Hussein (AS) fought. Culminating in his marty…
How Americans View the Iran War | Institute for Global Affairs
How Americans View the Iran War | Institute for Global Affairs
This post is part of IGA’s new report on American public attitudes, War President. Read theexecutive summary hereand themethodology here. Clickhere to read the next chapter.
Americans disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the war with Iran, don’t think it’s making the United States any better off, and are pessimistic about its chances of success. They are reluctant to put ground troops at risk, troubled by moves that would increase Iranian civilian casualties, and connect the war to higher costs of living. Americans blame Washington as much as Tehran for the conflict — and many say the war affects their vote.
1.Only Republicans are sold on the war.Seventy-three percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the war, 55 percent say Iran is now less likely to acquire a nuclear weapon than a year ago, and 55 percent say operations have made the United States safer. Those figures fall to 23 percent, 26 percent, and 14 percent among independents — and 5 percent, 24 percent, and 5 percent among Democrats.
2. Americans don’t want to escalate.Sixty-two percent oppose a US ground invasion of Iran. Fifty…
Iran's battered economy will take years to recover from the war
Iran's battered economy will take years to recover from the war
The deal was a long time coming—far too long for ordinary Iranians. American and Israeli bombs have damaged their infrastructure and industry; American warships have blockaded their ports. The memorandum of understanding (mou) between America and Iran, signed by Donald Trump in Versailles on June 17th, sets out 60 days for negotiations over a final agreement, with big incentives (perhaps even $300bn in investment) if Iran co-operates. But how much it gets may become a sticking point.
For ordinary Iranians, the pain has been acute. Last month inflation was 84% year on year, more than twice the rate in January. Food-price inflation, at 131%, was even higher. (The blockade has affected imports, too. Some 3,000 containers destined for Iran have stacked up in Pakistani ports since mid-April, and grain shipments to Bandar Imam Khomeini, Iran’s main hub for agricultural goods, have fallen by 40%.) Poor Iranians are paying for meat and bread in instalments. Gholam-Hossein Mohammadi, the deputy labour minister, has said as many as 2m people have lost their jobs—up to 7% of the workforce. On May 18th Donya-e Eqtesad, an Irania…
Stephen Miller warns Iran of severe military consequences if it rejects ...
Stephen Miller warns Iran of severe military consequences if it rejects ...
Stephen Miller warns Iran of severe military consequences if it rejects US deal
The White House Deputy Chief of Staff says the US holds all the leverage and Iran faces 'severe military punishment' if diplomacy fails.
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by
Editorial Team
May. 20, 2026
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller delivered a blunt message to Tehran: accept a deal with the United States, or face severe military consequences. The warning, issued on Fox News, represents the latest escalation in rhetoric from an administration that has made confronting Iran a centerpiece of its foreign policy.
Miller framed the situation as one of overwhelming American dominance. He asserted that the US holds all the leverage in the standoff with Iran, describing the US embargo of Iranian ports as “resetting the entire global order.”
Maximum pressure, maximum volume
The posture isn’t exactly new. It’s an extension of the “maximum pressure” campaign that began after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the JCPOA, in 2018. That campaign has included waves of sanctions, military posturing, and diplo…
OSAMA BIN LADEN consulted PAKISTAN in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
PAKISTAN reduced relations UNITED STATES in Tehran, Tehran, Iran
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Iran Rejects US Peace Plan, Hardliners Maintain Control Amid Crisis
Iran Rejects US Peace Plan, Hardliners Maintain Control Amid Crisis
State TV rejection and defiant tone signal security establishment driving Iran’s stance
Dubai: Iran’s rejection of a US-backed peace plan has underscored a familiar pattern —and a deeper reality— that in moments of crisis, the country’s hardline establishment remains firmly in control of both tone and direction.
Iranian state television, citing an unidentified senior official, said Tehran had“responded negatively”to the American proposal aimed at ending the war.
“The end of the war will occur when Iran decides it should end, not when Trump envisionsits conclusion,” the official said, according to Press TV.
The fact that the rejection was aired through state television — rather than formal diplomatic channels — signals that the message is being driven by Iran’s security establishment, underscoring where real authority lies.
The response reflects a broader pattern in Iran’s approach to external pressure. Since the 1979 revolution, Tehran has repeatedly resisted US and Western demands — from enduring decades of sanctions to refusing limits on its missile programme and insisting on domestic uranium enrichment eve…
Why did the US attack Iran? Questions about the war, explained
Why did the US attack Iran? Questions about the war, explained
WORLD
Donald Trump
Add Topic
Why is the US at war with Iran? Answering key questions about the conflict
Terry Collins
Sarah D. Wire
Josh Meyer
Zachary Schermele
Ashley Pōkiʻi Lewis
Nikol Mudrová
Kim Hjelmgaard
USA TODAY
March 3, 2026
Updated March 8, 2026, 3:20 p.m. ET
Hear this story
A new and geopolitically complex war between the United States and Iran is escalating and as the number of American service members killed since the initial attack on Feb. 28 grows, many people are asking: Why are we involved? What is really happening? And what comes next?
To help make sense of the rapidly evolving conflict, we invited readers to
send in their questions
and asked USA TODAY journalists to break down the answers.
Here are some of the questions you asked USA TODAY:
Why is the US attacking Iran?
The United States and Israel began
strikes on Iran early on Feb. 28
, in a campaign that
killed the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
, and dozens of top officials and hit more than 1,250 targets inside the country. President
Donald Trump
said the strikes were intended to eliminate "imminent threats" from Iran and prev…
PAKISTAN consulted OSAMA BIN LADEN in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
New Delhi: For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has presented itself as the loudest defender of the Palestinian cause. Every year, Tehran marks "Quds Day" with speeches condemning Israel, senior Iranian officials routinely describe Palestine as the "central issue" of the Muslim world, and support fo
New Delhi: For more than four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has presented itself as the loudest defender of the Palestinian cause. Every year, Tehran marks "Quds Day" with speeches condemning Israel, senior Iranian officials routinely describe Palestine as the "central issue" of the Muslim world, and support for Palestinian armed groups has been a pillar of Iran's revolutionary identity.
Yet recent events have exposed a striking contradiction between rhetoric and strategic behavior. The months following the Israel-Hamas war have demonstrated that while Iran is willing to support proxies, issue fiery statements, and celebrate the language of "resistance," it has shown remarkable restraint whenever its own national interests have been directly at stake. The contrast has become even more visible amid attempts to reduce tensions involving the United States and Israel.
This is not to suggest that Iran has abandoned every connection with Palestinian groups. Tehran continues to provide political backing and has long been associated with military and financial support for organisations such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. However, there is a widening gap between symbolic le…
PAKISTAN consulted OSAMA BIN LADEN in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Why Tehran threatens Trump while pursuing diplomacy | Iran International
Why Tehran threatens Trump while pursuing diplomacy | Iran International
Trading resumed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) under strict and highly managed conditions, with parts of the market reopening while 42 major, mostly export-oriented companies remained suspended.
The restart marked a procedural return to activity, but within a framework designed to tightly control selling pressure and limit volatility.
Steel and petrochemical companies — traditionally among the most influential drivers of the TEDPIX index — did not reopen. These firms were reportedly damaged during the war, yet authorities have not disclosed the extent of the damage, the duration of production halts, insurance coverage details, financing arrangements or reconstruction timelines.
No revised earnings projections have been made public. The absence of such disclosures leaves investors without the information needed to reassess valuations in a post-conflict environment.
At the same time, sectors that did resume trading were already structurally fragile before the conflict began. The banking system had been operating with capital constraints and persistent balance-sheet weaknesses.
The automobile industry w…
Iran Deal is Imperfect, But Decertification was a Mistake
Iran Deal is Imperfect, But Decertification was a Mistake
The following is an interview with Pacific Council President and CEO Dr. Jerrold D. Green on Iran following his remarks at the "Under Threat? U.S.-Iranian Relations & the Future of the Iran Deal" panel atMembers Weekend 2017.____________________
Dr. Jerrold D. Green:As is widely known, even by its architects, the Iran nuclear deal is imperfect. These imperfections, however, do not justify decertification. For casual observers the deal can be confusing to understand. Many think—incorrectly—that this deal was meant to cover all aspects of Iranian policy. In point of fact, the deal was more narrowly focused exclusively on impeding Iran’s development of a nuclear weapons capability based on aggressive enrichment.
It is important to understand who the deal architects were. They were the P5 + 1 countries: Russia, China, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. It is especially noteworthy—and indeed a remarkable accomplishment—that Moscow, Beijing, and Washington were able to agree on anything, especially in light of the current global political climate. This is not simply an American deal. The United States h…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
Five Strategic Futures for the Iran War - smallwarsjournal.com
Five Strategic Futures for the Iran War - smallwarsjournal.com
Wars rarely end as their participants expect. Military campaigns launched to achieve clear political objectives often produce ambiguous, incomplete, or entirely unforeseen outcomes. The outcome of the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States will shape not only Iran’s nuclear ambitions but also the balance of power in the Middle East and the security of one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.
As Carl von Clausewitzremindsus, “war is ultimately a continuation of policy by other means.” Military operations may reshape the battlefield, but the outcome of war is determined by political decisions and strategic adaptation. Rather than predicting a single outcome, strategists often explore multiple plausible futures to understand the risks and opportunities that may emerge. As President Trump took office, we offered our thoughts onpotential scenariosfor the Russian-Ukrainian War, and we do so here again.
Three key variables will likely shape the trajectory of the Iran war. First, thecohesion of the Iranian regime; second, thescale and durationof Israeli and American military pressure; and third, the de…
Iran Update Special Report, May 24, 2026 | ISW
Iran Update Special Report, May 24, 2026 | ISW
Previous
Next
Iran Update Special Report, May 24, 2026
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and
The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute
are publishing daily updates to provide analysis on the war with Iran. The updates focus on US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s response to the strikes. The updates cover events from the past 24-hour period.
Key Takeaways
Conflicting US, Iranian, and regional reporting indicates that the contours of a possible US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) remain unresolved and may not yet represent a final agreement.
Iranian officials, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated outlets, and Iranian sources speaking to Western and regional media are presenting the possible MOU as conditional on US concessions and continued Iranian leverage.
IRGC-affiliated reporting has identified frozen assets, sanctions relief, the naval blockade, Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz as the main unresolved issues. This is every issue in the first stage of the agreement, before talks on the nuclear program.
Mediators appear to be trying to preserv…
Analysis: Awaiting Israel's strike, Tehran pushes propaganda to cushion ...
Analysis: Awaiting Israel's strike, Tehran pushes propaganda to cushion ...
“Lethal, precise, and especially surprising.”
That’s how Israeli Defense Minister Yoav GallantframedIsrael’s impending military response to the Islamic Republic’s overt and direct missilebarragefrom Iranian territory against the Jewish state earlier this October. While Gallant’s comments appeared intentionally vague, the Islamic Republic’s remarks are becoming increasingly specific. And with good reason.
Iranian politicians, military officials, and media outlets are currently advancing a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs. In so doing, they seek to stem the ability of any strike to generate a crisis of legitimacy that could then cascade to threaten regime survival for Tehran’s theocrats.
The imperative of this campaign for pro-regime elites is set to grow, given the inability of the Islamic Republic to successfully co-opt Iranian nationalism into the fight against Israel and bolster its tattered standing on the home front. Perhaps nowhere was this failure more apparent in Ir…
Who Really Won the Israel-Iran War? Inside the 12-Day Campaign That ...
Who Really Won the Israel-Iran War? Inside the 12-Day Campaign That ...
Loading...
Eliana Fleming
JUN 24, 2025 19:37
4
min read
Just today a ceasefire took effect, concluding
Israel
’s 12-day “Rising Lion” operation, also known as the “12-Day War” against
Iran
. This historic campaign reshaped regional dynamics by crippling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities but left critical challenges unresolved. Below is a detailed breakdown of the outcomes, losses, and future implications.
Casualties and Human Toll
Direct Damage Assessment
Ready for more?
Ready for more?
Israel
:
Iran
:
High-Profile Eliminations
Israel
:
Iran
:
Israel’s Strategic Achievements
The operation marked a historic success for Israel, with the following key accomplishments:
Iran’s Achievements and Israel’s Unresolved Challenges
While Iran’s regime survived, it faces significant setbacks, yet several issues remain open for Israel:
Looking Ahead
Israel’s operation is a monumental achievement, defying expectations and evoking awe akin to a sci-fi narrative. As one observer noted, “Israel cut Iran’s threat to the grass, but it may grow again.” Iran’s persistent ambitions demand vigilance, as it is already working to …
How America's war crowned Iran as the Gulf's new hegemon
How America's war crowned Iran as the Gulf's new hegemon
There is a particular irony — the kind that history savors — in the fact that the United States set out in February 2026 to destroy Iran as a regional power and instead ended up cementing its dominance.
This is not a paradox – it is a pattern. Anyone who has paid attention to American foreign policy in the Middle East over the past three decades will recognize it immediately, because it has happened before, and because many of us said, in advance and in print, that it would happen again.
I wrote in “Quagmire” in 1992 that the United States had no strategic interest in becoming the permanent arbiter of Middle Eastern politics and no capacity — military, cultural or institutional — to remake the region in its image.
I wrote in “Sandstorm” in 2005 that the invasion of Iraq had not diminished Iranian power but enormously magnified it, by eliminating Tehran’s primary regional counterweight and handing the country’s Shia majority a state.
Washington’s response to both arguments, then and now, was to produce more think-tank papers, schedule more Senate hearings and launch more wars.
Now we are living in the aftermath of the latest …
Inside the Iran-US negotiations: leverage, risk and zones of agreement
Inside the Iran-US negotiations: leverage, risk and zones of agreement
VOICES
Mohammed Alharthi
12 February 2026
Inside the Iran–US negotiations: leverage, risk and zones of agreement
Mohammed Alharthi (MPP 2025) examines how regional dynamics and power politics are shaping the prospects and risks of diplomacy in the Iran-US negotiations.
Estimated reading time: 5 Minutes
There is a version of diplomacy measured not in words, but in 100,000 tonnes of steel, a tactic currently on display in the Gulf and Arabian Sea, an ‘armada’ led by the USS
Abraham Lincoln
carrier strike group, alongside destroyers, missile-defense systems, and other assets, to invite Iran to reconsider its position while negotiations remain unresolved.
This has unfolded after months of unprecedented anti-government protests in Iran and years of an intermittent maximum pressure campaign, with sanctions by the
first
and
second
Trump administrations aimed to coerce the Iranian regime into concessions.
What is at stake for each side?
There are three contentious issues: (i) the nuclear program, (ii) ballistic missiles, (iii) Iran’s support for regional proxies, the armed groups and militias across the Middle East tha…
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States' Leverage, War, and the ...
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States' Leverage, War, and the ...
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States’ Leverage, War, and the Case for Collective Security
Mohammad Yaghi
|
28 Apr 2026 19:30
عربي
PDF
Introduction
There is a clear contradiction between the importance of the Arab Gulf states to the United States and the global economy, on the one hand, and Washington’s disregard for the interests of these states, on the other.
The Arab Gulf states made every possible effort to
prevent
the United States from attacking Iran, knowing in advance that they would be among the biggest losers from such a war. Rather than listening to the Gulf states, Washington appears to have prioritised Israel’s interests. In the early days of the conflict, Secretary of State Marco Rubio justified the U.S. attack by
saying
that Washington knew Israel was preparing to strike Iran and that such a strike would trigger attacks on U.S. forces, making a pre-emptive U.S. strike necessary. This interpretation was also reinforced by Kamala Harris, who
stated
at a Michigan Democratic Women’s Caucus event in Detroit on April 18, 2026, that Trump “entered a war — got pulled into it by Bibi Neta…
A Summary of the Iran War, So Far - Geopolitical Futures
A Summary of the Iran War, So Far - Geopolitical Futures
Analysis
From the Desk of George Friedman
Regional Directory
Middle East and North Africa
United States
Weekly
Open as PDF
Wars can be viewed by historians later, but while they are raging and facts and lies compete for attention, it’s hard to understand what’s happening. Nevertheless, as we are living through the war in Iran, it’s worth making an attempt to understand what is happening, however confusing it might be.
As it stands now, the United States and Israel are conducting an air war that appears bent on destroying Iran’s nuclear program. Both see a nuclear weapon as dangerous to themselves, regardless of how it’s delivered. It’s unclear whether Iran can build a deliverable nuclear weapon, but even if there’s a small possibility, it could lead to catastrophic consequences.
The first U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear development program demonstrated the importance of this objective. Having only partially succeeded, the U.S. and Israel then mounted a far broader aerial assault to bring about a second objective: to force regime change or, failing that, inflict enough damage to elongate the recovery time, during which perhaps …
Analysis-Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war
Analysis-Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war
<p>By Samia Nakhoul</p><p>BEIRUT, June 15 (Reuters) - The U.S.-Iran deal may silence the guns, but it cannot alter the verdict of more than three months of war. </p><p>The region has emerged from one of its most dangerous crises in decades with the balance of power broadly unchanged, Iran politically emboldened, and Gulf confidence in U.S. protection deeply shaken, Gulf sources, diplomats and analysts say.</p>
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Trump and Netanyahu's Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a ...
Trump and Netanyahu's Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a ...
Trump and Netanyahu’s Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a People’s Uprising
By
Kevin B. Anderson
|
Mar 3, 2026
|
View Larger Image
Reeking of Imperial Hubris
Seizing upon what they consider to be a generational opportunity, with Iran’s theocratic dictatorship shaken by the January people’s uprising, Trump and Netanyahu launched a “prolonged” attack from the air on February 28. While the attacks are aimed, they say, at eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile capacity, it clearly involves an effort at regime change. With their nefarious surprise attack – conducted in the middle of negotiations — and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in his residence along with other regime leaders and members of his family, they have committed at least three major war crimes: launching a war of aggression, attacks on the civilian population, and assassination of the political and military leadership of sovereign nation. This is also a precedent for other imperialist and subimperialist powers everywhere.
Of course, it is not surprising that many sectors of the Iranian population have express…
The Iran-US Agreement and the limits of American hegemony
The Iran-US Agreement and the limits of American hegemony
June 15, 2026 at 1:43 pm
A group of Iraqi participants and members of Hashd al Shaabi march with flags and chant slogans during a demonstration in support of Iran and against US and Israeli attacks in Khorramshahr, Iran on March 28, 2026. [Haidar Mohammed Ali – Anadolu Agency]
After nearly half a century of hostility, sanctions, military threats and indirect confrontations, the announcement of a memorandum of understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States may represent one of the most significant geopolitical developments in the Middle East since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
More than an agreement on nuclear issues, however, this development reveals something deeper: Washington’s recognition of the limits of the “maximum pressure” strategy it has pursued against Tehran for decades.
Since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in February 1979, the United States has sought to contain Iran through a variety of means. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, sabotage operations, hybrid warfare, targeted assassinations and the constant threat of military action have all been employed.
The objectiv…
The Iran War Shows the Limits of U.S. Power - Carnegie Endowment for ...
The Iran War Shows the Limits of U.S. Power - Carnegie Endowment for ...
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Cross Hall of the White House on April 1, 2026, in Washington, DC. Trump used the prime-time address to update the nation on the war in Iran. (Photo by Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images)
If Washington cannot adapt to the ongoing transformations of a multipolar world, its superiority will become a liability.
The Iran war is confronting the Middle East and the world with dramatic transformations. War realities are reshaping global supply chains and testing long-held alliances. They are also showing the limits of security and stability in the Gulf and the wider Middle East without a regional architecture, as well as the limits of military superiority in impacting desired political change. The Iran war is becoming one of the pivotal moments in international history that are measured not merely by the outcomes of military battles, but by the profound impact they leave upon the political and symbolic standing of major powers—as well as upon their self-perceptions and their capacity to shape the world according to their will. Today—as thewar in Irancontinues—the United Stat…
'Catastrophic capitulation': Why US and Israel are the biggest losers in Iran deal
'Catastrophic capitulation': Why US and Israel are the biggest losers in Iran deal
PRESS REVIEW – Thursday, June 18: An Israeli paper slams the US's deal with Iran as a "catastrophic capitulation". While Trump sees the US as the big winner, the press says Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz shows that it has set a new status quo. Also, EU leaders scramble to find anti-China trade measures without provoking Beijing into a trade war. Plus, as a heatwave returns to Europe, French resort towns plan to fine men who go shirtless in public.
Who Is Winning the 2026 Iran-US War? A Tactical Score:...
Who Is Winning the 2026 Iran-US War? A Tactical Score:...
Your searches will appear here
Executive summary
The current US–Iran war is fluid, with heavy strikes, regional escalations, diplomatic negotiations and a conditional ceasefire all unfolding simultaneously; neither side has achieved a decisive strategic victory as of early June 2026, but the balance of tangible military effects and diplomatic leverage favors the United States and its partners modestly — score: 65/100 (leaning U.S.).[1][2][3]
1. Battlefield damage versus survivability: conventional effects and asymmetric resilience
The United States and Israel have reportedly struck Iranian military and government sites, sinking Iranian vessels and destroying some infrastructure, while Iran has demonstrated resilient asymmetric capabilities — launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles across the region and restoring access to most missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz — which complicates any claim of outright U.S. dominance[1][4][5].
2. Regional escalation: Hezbollah, Lebanon and the wider theatre
The war spilled into Lebanon and sparked a separate Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah that killed thousa…
The war on Iran is Washington's most unpopular war in history among the ...
The war on Iran is Washington's most unpopular war in history among the ...
Rally against the war on Iran in Los Angeles. Photo: PSL LA
Over 1,400 people have been killed and 18,000 injured in Iran
since the start of the US-Israeli war against the country on February 28. Major civilian casualties have been reported, including
160 school girls killed
in an attack on their elementary school. As the conflict reaches its third week, the vast majority of people in the US are flatly rejecting another war launched in their name.
According to a recent
Ipsos
poll,
only 27% of the US public supports the attacks on Iran
. Unlike previous conflicts, this aggression is unfolding amid what appears to be the deepest and most immediate opposition to a US war in modern history. The US war on Iran is reportedly even
less popular than the Vietnam War
was in its final years.
It may also be one of the most expensive wars in modern history. In the first six days, US taxpayers had already spent an estimated
11.3 billion USD
. This number doesn’t factor in major costs like troop deployments, aircraft operations and maintenance, equipment losses, long-term care for wounded troops, rebuilding munitions sto…
The U.S. attacked Iran to show its power but the war is already lost ...
The U.S. attacked Iran to show its power but the war is already lost ...
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is already lost for the United States. Even if Iran is militarily defeated, it is unlikely the United States’ political objectives will be achieved. And, on balance, the United States will come out weakened from this war.
Recommended Video
President Trump’s biggest problem lies in his attempt to square an impossible circle: imposing regime change in Iran without committing ground troops. Trump understands that neither his MAGA base nor the U.S. public has any appetite for another prolonged ground war in the Middle East. But regime change from the air does not work for a 90 million-strong country that is four times the size of Iraq and has been preparing for this eventuality for decades. The United States is beleaguered by the paradox of a leadership wanting to reimpose its global might through coercion and hard power and a population fundamentally opposed to any war that entails a significant expenditure of U.S. lives.
Why Iran Is Harder to Break Than It Looks
Despite all the talk of a downgraded Iran in the last two years, recent events have demonstrated the country’s capacity to…
Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war
Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war
Senior Analyst, Middle East
The Iran-Israel war has brought the Middle East to the brink of a new regional order — one in which Israel seeks to assert itself as an unrestrained military power. Israel has framed its offensive as a preemptive strike against an imminent Iranian nuclear threat it claimed posed an existential danger. Yet the operation may have been aimed primarily at curbing Iran’s regional influence — now and in the future — and reinforcing Israel’s freedom of military action.
In this Q&A, ACLED Senior Analyst breaks down how the war unfolded, what it achieved, and what the current ceasefire might mean for the future.
The scale and intensity of Israel’s attack on Iran were unprecedented, presenting the most severe security challenge the Islamic Republic has faced since the Iran-Iraq War. In total, Israel carried out nearly 360 attacks across 27 Iranian provinces. Many of these attacks comprised multiple aerial strikes on different targets in the same city. Over 150 distinct locations were targeted over the course of 12 days. The intensity of the attacks on the Iranian capital, Tehran, was particula…
Weaponising Connectivity: The Iran War and the Rise of Chokepoint ...
Weaponising Connectivity: The Iran War and the Rise of Chokepoint ...
Analysis
Weaponising Connectivity: The Iran War and the Rise of Chokepoint Warfare
8 April 2026
Written by:
Burak Elmalı
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On the night of 7 April 2026, Iran
announced
its acceptance of a two-week
ceasefire
, with negotiations scheduled to commence on 10 April in Islamabad, Pakistan. The decision followed a statement by
U.S. President
Donald Trump indicating that U.S. strikes would be suspended, contingent upon Tehran’s agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
After two months of coordinated U.S.–Israeli
military operations
, a central strategic lesson has emerged: modern warfare is increasingly defined by the ability to disrupt connectivity rather than solely destroy military assets. Iran’s asymmetric response demonstrates that critical infrastructure
and the vulnerabilities embedded in global
interdependence
have
become a primary instrument of
coercion
.
U.S. bases in the Gulf, alongside energy facilities, ports, and logistical hubs, are no longer peripheral targets but integral com
ponents of escalation dynamics.
The temporary
disruption
of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’…
Should Britain embrace a tougher approach towards Iran?
Should Britain embrace a tougher approach towards Iran?
Big Asks
Should Britain embrace a tougher approach towards Iran?
The Big Ask | No. 09.2026
Alec Smith
Mar 06, 2026
1
1
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Image generated using Artificial Intelligence
Following weeks of preparation and military build-up in the Middle East, the United States (US) and Israel launched an offensive against Iran on 28th February. Strikes on Tehran
eliminated
many senior Iranian figures, most notably Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, who was
confirmed
dead early on 1st March.
Iran
retaliated
by launching missile strikes against countries throughout the Middle East, while an Iranian drone
targeted
a Royal Air Force (RAF) air station at Akrotiri on Cyprus on 1st March. Although Britain initially
appeared
reluctant to show overt support for ‘
Operation EPIC FURY
’, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister,
announced
on Monday that the United Kingdom (UK) will allow the US to use British air stations to strike Iran. This development forms the foundation for this week’s Big Ask, in which we asked eight experts:
Should Britain embrace a tougher approach towards Iran?
Dr Hillary Briffa
Adjunct Fellow, Council on Geostrategy, and…
Iran parliament speaker says US plots ground attack despite diplomatic ...
Iran parliament speaker says US plots ground attack despite diplomatic ...
ANI
Iran Speaker Ghalibaf
Tehran: Iran's parliament speaker
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
said Sunday that the United States was plotting a ground attack despite publicly engaging in diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war.
"The enemy publicly sends messages of negotiation and dialogue while secretly planning a ground attack," Ghalibaf said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.
Click here for live updates on the US-Israel Iran War
"Our men are waiting for the arrival of the American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional allies once and for all," he added.
Ghalibaf's defiant message comes after one month of regional war that was sparked on February 28 when Israel and the United States launched air strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader and triggering a conflict that has spread across the Middle East.
Live Events
Shipping traffic in the vital
Strait of Hormuz
-- through which 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes -- has been brought to a near-standstill by the conflict.
Ghalibaf called for unity among Iranians, saying…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
Washington and Tehran's Very Dangerous Moment
Washington and Tehran's Very Dangerous Moment
A woman walks past a banner with the images of Iranian leaders in Tehran on June 10, 2026. (Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
The Islamic Republic’s words and actions suggest that it has changed its approach to both diplomacy and war.
The U.S.-Iran negotiations feel like a rapid-fire game of ping-pong. How are you keeping track of where things stand?
It is indeed a rapid-fire game of ping-pong, except the players keep changing the rules of engagement: one jumping on the table, one scoring under it, both chasing each other around it, each with a paddle in one hand and a whip in the other. And somehow, the audience keeps getting hit.
Following events on the ground, and the various actors’ intentions and strategies, is simply impossible. The volume of information coming out of Iran alone, even during theinternet blackouts, has been staggering. Analyzing it against what is happening in the United States, Israel, and Lebanon, and understanding how they all interact, is a game unto itself. Yet somehow, it appears that far more is happening on the Iranian side, where the Islamic Republic is simultaneously juggling a military, eco…
Iran's Trolling Caught the U.S. Off Guard. Here's How to Push Back.
Iran's Trolling Caught the U.S. Off Guard. Here's How to Push Back.
Council on Foreign Relations
Articles
Share
By experts and staff
Published
June 10, 2026 10:49 a.m.
Jessica Brandt
CFR Expert
Senior Fellow for Technology and National Security
Share
Jessica Brandt previously led the U.S. intelligence community’s efforts to mitigate foreign influence threats as the director of the Foreign Malign Influence Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Iran’s diplomatic response to President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian civilization wasn’t a condemnation or a counterthreat. It was a scheduling request. “8PM is not so good. Could you change it to between 1 and 2PM — or if possible, 1 and 2AM?” one Iranian embassy wrote on X.
When Trump later delivered an expletive-laden demand that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz, it responded with a joltingly deadpan quip: “We’ve lost the keys.”
These jocular retorts are not one-offs. They are part of Iran’s much broader strategy to push back on the United States in the information domain—one that encompasses satirical memes, artificial intelligence (AI)-generated videos, and sarcastic pile-ons designed to undercut U.S…
Iran Can No Longer Pay Its Own Soldiers — and Trump Has Several Ways to ...
Iran Can No Longer Pay Its Own Soldiers — and Trump Has Several Ways to ...
Maj. Paul Lopez, F-22 Raptor Demonstration Team commander, performs during the Chicago Air and Water Show, Aug. 17, 2019. Founded in 2007, the F-22 Demo Team showcases the unique capabilities of the world's premier fifth-generation fighter aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by 2nd Lt. Samuel Eckholm)
Summary and Key Points:
On the surface, the Iran war has stalled into a tense ceasefire. Underneath, the regime is coming apart: prices are soaring, exports have collapsed, and a government can no longer reliably pay the troops it’s counting on. Iran is using the lull to rebuild — but the same pause has handed Washington a menu of ways to push the regime past the edge, short of the ground war the headlines keep warning about.
America Has Options When It Comes to Iran
F-22 Raptor Elephant Walk. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor assigned to the 3rd Wing conducts flight operations at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Sept. 28, 2023. The F-22 Raptor is a critical component of the Global Strike Task Force, and is designed to project air dominance rapidly and at great distances to defeat threa…
One year after 12-day war: Iran rises as regional superpower while US Empire slips into oblivion
One year after 12-day war: Iran rises as regional superpower while US Empire slips into oblivion
One year after the 12-day imposed war, Iran has emerged as a regional superpower by defeating the US-Israeli war machine twice, while America – humiliated, economically drained, and stripped of credibility – now desperately seeks a deal to escape war and avoid complete collapse.
Iran has lost its fear of war | World News - Hindustan Times
Iran has lost its fear of war | World News - Hindustan Times
Editor’s note: On June 11th Donald Trump claimed that he had agreed a “great settlement” with Iran. Iran’s foreign ministry said that most of the text of a memorandum had been “finalised” but that ”excessive” American demands remained a sticking point
WHAT was once unthinkable has now become routine. In the past week America and Israel have both bombed Iran, and Iran has downed an American helicopter, fired missiles at Israel and attacked several Arab states. This is fast becoming the region’s new normal. Though a ceasefire of sorts has largely held for more than two months, talks between America and Iran remain at a stalemate and violations are becoming more frequent.
Diplomatic deadlock is not the only cause of the volatility. It also reflects an emboldened Islamic Republic. Donald Trump has insisted for months that the regime is desperate for a deal. Instead he has been vexed by an Iran willing to tolerate low-level conflict and risk a return to all-out war. Yet a newfound fondness for risk is a risk in itself. Iran is wagering that it can deter Israel and coerce Mr Trump into a deal. Both may prove difficult.
Read…
Behind the Headline: The U.S.-Iran Crisis Explained
Behind the Headline: The U.S.-Iran Crisis Explained
News
|
February 25, 2026
Behind the Headline: The U.S.-Iran Crisis Explained
by Ambreen Ali
National Security & Defense
Source
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
President Donald Trump has threatened to attack Iran multiple times in recent weeks, accusing Tehran of developing weapons capable of striking the United States. Iranian leaders have vowed to respond if the country is attacked militarily. With rising tensions threatening to further destabilize the Middle East, a lot is on the line as the two countries ended talks in Geneva with no deal.
Daniel C. Kurtzer
, the S. Daniel Abraham Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, spent nearly three decades in the U.S. Foreign Service, including serving as the U.S. Ambassador to Israel and Egypt. He explains how this crisis came to be and how it may play out if the situation escalates further.
Why has the situation with Iran escalated?
Daniel Kurtzer:
The administration points to three reasons for its aggressive stance toward Iran and its preparations for attacking Iran. First, there are uncorrobor…
Comprehensively Countering the Iranian Regime's Malign Activities
Comprehensively Countering the Iranian Regime's Malign Activities
The Washington Institute’s director of research testifies on the Trump administration's best means of combining diplomatic, military, and congressional pressure to permanently block Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or reconstituting its damaged regional threat network.
The following are prepared remarks submitted to the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Chairman Mast, Ranking Member Meeks, and distinguished members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on U.S. policy to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities. In my view, the window is open for the United States to work with like-minded partners to advance opportunities in a region no longer held back by Iran’s nefarious influence. To emphasize, this is a window of opportunity: how the United States proceeds in the coming months will determine whether a more stable and secure Middle East emerges from the post-October 7 environment. To press the advantage, Washington must be prepared to bring more to the table than pressure. Military force and sanctions are critical elements of strategy but insufficient on their…
Checkmate in Iran - The Atlantic
Checkmate in Iran - The Atlantic
It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China a…
'They Don't Know Iran's Military Lexicon': First Six Days of The ...
'They Don't Know Iran's Military Lexicon': First Six Days of The ...
By Abdul Bari Atwan
They truly don’t know Iran. By this, I mean the Israelis and the US, and even some Arab leaders, none of whom dared to condemn the aggression. But the aggression entered its sixth day without the regime falling, and/or the new interim leadership rushing to the nearest negotiating table to surrender. The following factors need to be considered.
The battlefields:
First: The downing of an advanced American fighter jet, the F-15, by Iranian missiles in the west of Iran, a firstever development. This suggests the Iranian military leadership may have developed new missiles capable of achieving this feat, or they acquired them from their Chinese and Russian allies, or both, particularly the Russian S-400 and S-500 missile systems.
Second: The entry of Hezbollah’s ballistic missiles into the arena, striking deep inside Israel, specifically Tel Aviv and Haifa, for the first time after 15 months of restraint and the rebuilding of its military arsenal, and/or what was destroyed during the Israeli aggression. This means that no area in the Zionist entity will be safe.
Third: The fiery speech delivered by …
U.S.–Iran Military Engagement: Likely Scenarios - FPIF.org
U.S.–Iran Military Engagement: Likely Scenarios - FPIF.org
Shutterstock
U.S.–Iran Military Engagement: Likely Scenarios
The Trump administration has threatened not only targeted strikes against Iran but a more prolonged military engagement.
By
Yahya Zarrinnarges
|
February 26, 2026
A war between the United States and Iran appears increasingly plausible. Both sides still hope to avoid conflict, yet it remains unclear how they can do so, as diplomacy has not yet succeeded. Although President Trump appears to be giving diplomacy additional opportunities in the hope that war can be avoided, the Trump administration has threatened not only targeted strikes against Iran but a more prolonged military engagement.
The military balance in the Middle East is changing rapidly as the United States deploys additional aircraft carriers and warships to the region in preparation for possible conflict. Iran is also following its war-planning procedures. According to reports from inside the country, both the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are on heightened alert. Iran is reportedly sending more military equipment to border areas, adding short-range missiles …
US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Tehran gains, rivals alarmed
US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Tehran gains, rivals alarmed
AP
Demonstrators wave Iranian flags in a small group gathering at the Islamic Revolution square in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 14, 2026.
The U.S.-Iran agreement - the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution - is being hailed by its backers as the deal of the century.
But for Tehran's adversaries across the Middle East - from Israel to Gulf states and factions in Lebanon - it looks more like the curse of the century: an accord that could leave Iran more secure, more legitimate and ultimately more influential.
Also read:
What challenges could stand in the way of a final US-Iran deal?
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the interim deal on Wednesday, ending a three-month war. Trump chose to formalise it at Versailles, on the sidelines of the G7 summit - a setting widely seen as symbolic of the remaking of international order after conflict.
The 14-point agreement extends a ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, to allow negotiations on a permanent settlement and address issues such as Iran's nuclear programme.
Live Events
"For…
Diplomacy During War: Priorities for the Trump Administration
Diplomacy During War: Priorities for the Trump Administration
Three former U.S. policy practitioners experienced in negotiating with Iran discuss what kind of agreement is possible, what each side may require to make it happen, and how officials in Washington, Israel, the Gulf states, and Europe should address emerging differences in their objectives.
On April 2, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Emily Harding, Richard Nephew, and Michael Singh, moderated byAtlanticstaff writerNancy Youssef. Harding directs the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and has served in multiple U.S. government posts. Nephew is the Bernstein Adjunct Fellow at The Washington Institute and former U.S. deputy special envoy for Iran. Singh, the Institute’s managing director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow, formerly served as senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. The following is a rapporteurs’ summary of their remarks.
Central to any negotiations in the current war is the tension between diverging Israeli, U.S., and Iranian interests. While Israel seeks to eliminate the Iranian…
Moving from War to Diplomacy: What's Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?
Moving from War to Diplomacy: What's Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?
Amid major diplomatic milestones and major international security threats, three experts explore what it will take to achieve success on multiple negotiating tracks at once.
On April 15, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Ambassador Michael Herzog, Robert Satloff, and Hanin Ghaddar. Herzog is the Institute’s Tisch Distinguished Fellow, former Israeli ambassador to the United States, and a retired brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Satloff is the Institute’s Segal Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy. Ghaddar is the Institute’s Friedmann Senior Fellow and coauthor of “A Roadmap for Israel-Lebanon Peace.” The following is a rapporteurs’ summary of their remarks.
Israel is grappling with the transition from war to diplomacy on three different fronts, with two of these transitions—Iran and Gaza—being led by the United States. Although noteworthy battlefield gains have been made in each case, they have not yet been translated into durable political outcomes.
The shift to diplomacy is challenging for Israel. Both Jerusalem and Washing…
The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is failing. Here is why
The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is failing. Here is why
The aggression launched by the
United States
and
Israel
against
Iran
has produced a striking strategic paradox. While the American-Zionist axis relies on brute technological force and indiscriminate fire, it remains blind to the historical and sociopolitical realities of the region.
Thousands of targets across Iranian territory, including military facilities, infrastructure and command structures, have been struck and may have suffered significant
damage
. The US maintains air dominance, while the Zionist regime continues to expand its campaign with unceasing strikes.
Yet these tactical gains have not translated into political success. The central objectives of the aggression remain out of reach, leaving the US and the Zionist regime winning battlefield engagements while steadily losing the strategic contest.
In asymmetric confrontations, victory is measured by whether military force can compel the adversary to accept the political outcome sought by the attacking power. By that standard, the American-Zionist campaign is already encountering serious limitations.
The war across the region, now in its third week, is charact…
The War Against Iran and Global Risks: “Tell Me How This Ends”
The War Against Iran and Global Risks: “Tell Me How This Ends”
Conflict & Security
The War Against Iran and Global Risks: “Tell Me How This Ends”
Widyane Hamdach
March 26, 2026
The 2026 U.S.–Israeli strikes against Iran, initiated under Operation Epic Fury, represent one of the most consequential military interventions in recent Middle Eastern history. This article examines the war’s multidimensional consequences across national, regional, and international arenas and finds that the structural constraints of such a conflict risk the intervention’s transforming into a strategic overextension for the U.S. To avoid such an outcome, the article argues against any escalatory action and recommends that U.S. policymakers prioritize diplomacy over prolonged war. In a conflict defined by uncertainty, the most prudent course for U.S. policymakers is to pursue strategies that carefully manage escalation and reduce the risks of a wider regional and global crisis. By combining multilateral engagement and strengthening regional security partnerships, the U.S. could minimize the risks of a long-term ground war and strategic overextension.
The 2026 U.S.–Israel war against Iran has challenged the …
Why the Iran ceasefire and Modi-Trump talks could redefine India's ...
Why the Iran ceasefire and Modi-Trump talks could redefine India's ...
A fragile Iran truce, a high‑stakes Modi–Trump reset and a hard‑nosed case for “India First” - in the latest edition of ‘Point Blank’, Shishir Gupta, Executive Editor, Hindustan Times, lays out how these strands are converging into a decisive few weeks for New Delhi’s foreign and security policy.
The starting point is the imminent Iran–US interim deal that could lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after three and a half months of war. US President Donald Trump has announced that the blockade will be lifted and an interim arrangement signed on June 19, opening the world’s most critical energy chokepoint to maritime traffic again. For India, heavily dependent on Gulf oil, that alone is a shot in the arm: 16 days of ceasefire have already pulled prices down and injected optimism into global markets.
Yet, as Shishir Gupta stresses, this is no peace agreement; it is a 60‑day breathing space to negotiate the real prize - a nuclear deal. Washington’s first military objective in this war was to neutralise Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile; without verifiable rollback on that front, he argues, the coming deal r…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the Iran war
Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the Iran war
A man seen holding a poster of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was recently killed in US-Israeli airstrikes, on March 6, 2026. (Foad Ashtari / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect)
The US and Israeli militaries are hammering Iran for a second week. Iranian forces and proxies are striking back across the Middle East. Global financial and energy markets are full of volatility. And questions abound about the future trajectory of this conflict and its wider consequences.
Below, Atlantic Council experts pierce the fog of war with clarifying answers to twenty of the most pressing questions about these fast-moving events.
Click to jump to a question
1.
Is the US accomplishing its goals in the war?
2.
Is Israel achieving its aims in this conflict?
3.
Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran?
4.
What would be an acceptable end to this war for the Iranian regime?
5. What would be an acceptable end to this war for the US?
6.
What do we know about Iran’s new supreme leader?
7.
What happens if the Iranian regime collapses?
8.
How is the Iranian opposition responding to the conflict?
9.
Is Iran’s nuclear stockpile a danger?
10.
What threat does…
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's Nuclear Weapon
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's Nuclear Weapon
As you may have noticed, the U.S. and Iran are still skirmishing in the Strait of Hormuz. And Donald Trump is still issuing bombastic threats. If the Iranians don’t bend to his will, Trump said last week, “the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist!”
Get used to hearing that. When the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the two nations expires later this summer, we’ll see even more acrimony, even as the terms will allow tens of billions of dollars to flow into Iran with no strings attached. Of course that will allow the Iranians to rebuild their defenses. Trump has already said they have a right to deploy missiles. Meanwhile, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz will give it a hammer over the head of the global economy for the foreseeable future.
There was a
better way
. In 2015, I went to Israel and interviewed a former head of
Shin Bet
(Israel Security Agency), a former head of
Mossad
,
and four or five other security officials. I asked what they thought of the Iran nuclear deal known as the
JCPOA
(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), negotiated by the Obama Administration with the backing of China, Russia and …
How the War in Iran Has Weakened the U.S. in the Great Power Game
How the War in Iran Has Weakened the U.S. in the Great Power Game
“The U.S. war in Iran has damaged Washington’s position in the great power rivalries of the 21st century,” writes Jeffrey Taliaferro.
Image: Shutterstock
Global Affairs
How the War in Iran Has Weakened the U.S. in the Great Power Game
Russia and China are reaping the rewards of American focus on the Middle East
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Napoleon Bonaparte’s maxim
may well have been in the minds of policymakers in Moscow and Beijing these past weeks, as the U.S. war in Iran dragged on. And now that a 14-day ceasefire between Tehran and Washington is in effect—with both sides claiming “victory”—Russian and Chinese leaders still have an opportunity to profit from what many see as America’s latest folly in the Middle East.
Throughout the weekslong conflict, China and Russia struck a delicate balance. Both declined to give Iran—seen to a varying degree as an ally of both nations—their full-throated support or sink any real costs into the conflict.
Instead, they opted for limited assistance in the form of small-scale intelligence and diplomatic support.
As a scholar of international …
Iran exported 36 million barrels of oil in six days - TankerTrackers
Iran exported 36 million barrels of oil in six days - TankerTrackers
Paragraph 2 of the MOU effectively enshrines the abandonment of the Iranian people by committing both sides to "refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs."
This clause stands in direct contrast to many of President Trump's previous statements regarding the Iranian people and his repeated condemnations of the regime's brutality.
In 2017, Trump described Iranians as "a proud people" forced to submit to extremist rule. In 2018, he tweeted: "Such respect for the people of Iran as they try to take back their corrupt government. You will see great support from the United States at the appropriate time!"
Following the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, he posted: "If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change? MIGA."
In January 2026, he urged Iranians to continue protesting and "take over your institutions," adding that "help is on its way." The following month, during major opposition demonstrations, he again appealed directly to Iranians: "When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take."
Today, howev…
The US-Israel War on Iran: Analyses and Perspectives
The US-Israel War on Iran: Analyses and Perspectives
The United States has joined Israel in an all-out war on the Islamic Republic of Iran. On February 28, 2026, a US armada of two aircraft carrier strike groups and scores of advanced aircraft, together with the Israeli air force, launched a sustained military attack on Tehran and other Iranian cities, destroying military and other official targets and killing the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several high-ranking members of the clerical regime.
In response, Iranian forces launched missiles and armed drones against Israel and US military facilities in all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In Israel, Iranian missiles caused serious damage, killing and injuring scores of people. Iran also struck civilian infrastructure in the Gulf, including ports and airports. The hostilities effectively forced the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which no less than 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. US President Donald Trump declared that the aim of the attack on Iran was regime change in Tehran—an objective that, if achieved, will change the strategic outlook for the entire M…
Who Is Winning the Iran War? - CSIS
Who Is Winning the Iran War? - CSIS
Photo: Eyad Baba/AFP/Getty Images
Commentary
byDaniel Byman
Published April 2, 2026
It is difficult to tell which side is winning in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran because the objectives and strategies for victory of the combatants are so different. This is even further complicated by the fact that, for the United States, many of the highest costs of the war lie outside the theater of conflict and involve the economic costs to U.S. allies and the diplomatic damage to the United States.
President Donald Trump and his advisers have laid out multiple goals for the United States, some quite limited and others expansive. These include ending Iran’s nuclear program, degrading its missile capabilities and conventional military stocks, stopping Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other proxy forces, and, most ambitiously, regime change in Tehran. To achieve these goals, the United States and Israel have killed Iranian leaders and bombed Iran’s military forces and infrastructure.
Iran, for its part, seeks to preserve its regime and, if it can, restore deterrence with the United States and Israel. It has alsocommittedenorm…
Iran war: US imperialism's hubris meets reality - Socialist Party
Iran war: US imperialism's hubris meets reality - Socialist Party
Analysis and editorials
Anti-war
International
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Amid the unfolding chaos and turmoil of Trump’s war on Iran,
Socialist Party general secretary Hannah Sell
assesses its origins and global consequences.
The conflict that has raged for over three weeks in the Gulf, and continues as we go to press, is the third US war in the region since the end of the Cold War more than three decades ago. Every aspect of the current conflict demonstrates the weakening of US imperialism over that period. President Donald Trump’s chaotic and reckless approach is both a reflection of the USA’s relative decline and an accelerator of it. Whatever happens from here, the consequences are certain to include a new, qualitative undermining of the power and authority of US imperialism.
The first Gulf War of the post-Stalinist era, against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, took place in 1991 in the immediate aftermath of the implosion of the Stalinist states in Russia and Eastern Europe. Brutal totalitarian regimes, they had born no resemblance to genuine socialism but were nonetheless not capitalist and acted as a counterweigh…
Experts React: What the Epic Fury Iran Strikes Signal to the World
Experts React: What the Epic Fury Iran Strikes Signal to the World
In the early hours of Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched a major attack on Iran, targeting at least nine cities across the country. Iran vowed swift retaliation for the joint operation “Epic Fury,” targeting U.S. interests and allies across the Middle East with missile attacks reported in Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.
As a volatile region – and the wider world – braces for widespread conflict, Stimson experts unpack Saturday’s strikes on Iran to gauge the full geopolitical implications of the Epic Fury attack.
By Kelly Grieco, Distinguished Fellow
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”
So said President Trumpaddressingthe Iranian people in the early hours of Saturday morning, after the United States began what he described as “major combat operations” in Iran. The joint U.S.-Israeli operation—dubbed “Epic Fury” by the Pentagon—struck hundreds of targets across Iran, including the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s office, govern…
Iran won't surrender "in a million years," analyst says, warning regime ...
Iran won't surrender "in a million years," analyst says, warning regime ...
The U.S. and Israel underestimated Iran's capabilities and it's unlikely the regime will collapse, according to a Middle East analyst, who warned that
Iran
could now be more determined to obtain
nuclear
weapons.
In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank, said he believes the chances of regime change are "very slim," especially without the use of ground troops — which would be a potentially disastrous gambit, he said.
"We had our hopes too high," he said. "If somebody thinks that by air campaign, you can topple this regime, despite the fact that it's weak, but it's still very strong, I think we should think twice."
Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei
, the second son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has operated quietly behind the scenes for years, was named Iran's new supreme leader after his father was killed during the initial airstrikes on Tehran on Feb. 28.
Citrinowicz said that if the
war
ended today, he would not consider it a victory for the U.S. "because the regime is not going to capitulate, not in a…
Operation Epic Folly - Just International
Operation Epic Folly - Just International
By Michael K Smith
“If America attacks . . . Iranians will unite, forgetting their differences with their government, and they will fiercely and tenaciously defend their country.”
—–Shirin Ebadi, Iran’s 2003 Nobel Peace Prize laureate
The only thing truly epic about the current U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is the chasm between the facts on the ground and the media spectacle put forth by President Trump and his fawning aides.
Folly is the best term to capture the reality of a president who until very recently presented himself as uniquely qualified to bring peace to the world via his “Art of the Deal” genius, then turned on a dime to endlessly repeat that the U.S. would inflict maximum damage and suffering on Iran, a country he had said would be a particularly bad place to try and carry out regime change, not to mention a policy he claimed to have rejected no matter where it might be recommended, wisdom he allegedly learned from the disastrous U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
After steady coaching from Benjamin Netanyahu, however, he changed his mind, becoming convinced that a quick decapitation of Iran’s leadership would lead Iran’s suffering ma…
War on Iran: Epic fury turns epic folly - Punjab Today News
War on Iran: Epic fury turns epic folly - Punjab Today News
JUST FOR FUN?
A. J. Philip
March 25, 2026
THREE WEEKS AGO, the United States military looked invincible as President Donald Trump assembled what seemed the greatest concentration of force ever deployed in waters around Iran. When it became clear that the “Great Satan” was joined by the “little Satan” — Israel — the world braced for catastrophe for the regime of the Ayatollahs.
Yet today, the question nobody seems eager to ask is a simple one: what exactly has been achieved?
When the United States and Israel abruptly stopped their aggression against Iran last year, both governments declared that their objectives had been met. Trump boasted that massive bombing had permanently destroyed Iran’s enrichment facilities.
Media outlets filled their pages with elaborate descriptions of bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating deep underground and obliterating hardened installations.
The message was clear: Iran’s nuclear ambitions had been crushed. But that narrative has steadily begun to unravel.
Iran under fire as the conflict escalates on multiple fronts
Iran did retaliate, inflicting significant damage on a U.S. mili…
US misread Iran's power structure, risking wider Gulf war ... - CNBCTV18
US misread Iran's power structure, risking wider Gulf war ... - CNBCTV18
US misread Iran's power structure, risking wider Gulf war and oil shock: Former diplomat
With drone strikes hitting energy infrastructure and shipping insurers pulling back from the Strait of Hormuz, experts warn that the West Asia conflict is rapidly morphing into an economic shock. Analysts say a prolonged standoff could push oil prices towards $100 a barrel, strain India’s import bill, and complicate evacuation efforts for millions of Indians living across the Gulf, even as diplomatic channels struggle to contain the fallout from decisions taken by Washington under Donald Trump.
By
Ashmit Kumar
March 2, 2026, 7:01:33 PM IST
(Published)
4 Min Read
The United States underestimated the resilience of Iran’s power structure, and that miscalculation is now raising the risk of a wider conflict spreading across the Gulf, former diplomat Anil Trigunayat said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
The warning comes as escalating tensions between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other push crude oil and gas prices higher, stoke supply fears, and intensify risks for India’s economy and its large diaspora in West A…
What military capabilities does Iran possess as it negotiates with US ...
What military capabilities does Iran possess as it negotiates with US ...
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Tehran, Iran–Iranian officials are in Qatar formediated talkswith the United States, more than four months after the US and Israel launched heavy air attacks across Iran.
The negotiations in Doha come after the June 17 signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US to end the war, which, in turn, has been followed by limited exchanges of fire and repeated threats of reignited conflict.
Israel appears most eager to resume large-scale military strikes against Iran and its infrastructure, with Defence Minister Israel Katz saying on Monday that targets are already selected and the army awaits an order to deploy fighter jets.
According to Israeli media, Katz told reporters that the war could immediately resume if US President Donald Trump decides the negotiations with Iran – which Israel vehemently opposes – will not yield results, or ifIran attacks Israel.
Katz said Mojtaba Khamenei, who was selected as Iran’s supreme leader after his father Ali Khamenei was killed at the start of the war on February 28 but has not been seen publicly, is “marked for death”.
Iran’s Foreig…
Iran-US Diplomacy: Military Tensions and Risks Amid Nuclear Talks
Iran-US Diplomacy: Military Tensions and Risks Amid Nuclear Talks
Military build-up and unresolved red lines heighten escalation risks amid talks
Dubai: As US and Iranian negotiators cautiously sustain indirect talks inGeneva, diplomacy is unfoldingagainst one of the most heavily militarised backdrops in recent US–Iran history.
American carrier strike groups sit within operational reach of Iran, whileTehran conducts missile exercisesnear one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, with both sides openly warning of consequences should negotiations fail.
The fragile diplomatic momentum is also unfolding alongside fresh military activity.Iranian media reported that Iranand Russia will conduct joint naval manoeuvres in the Sea of Oman, days after Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards launched exercises in the Strait of Hormuz that briefly disrupted traffic through the strategic waterway.
The drills underscore how strategic signalling continues to shadow the negotiations.
Miscalculation spiral: Heavy military deployments by both sides increase the danger of accidents, misread signals, or unintended escalation — a classic security dilemma scenario.
Deadline pressure vs diplomatic r…
The True Cost of Trump's Iran War | Council on Foreign Relations
The True Cost of Trump's Iran War | Council on Foreign Relations
Council on Foreign Relations
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By experts and staff
Updated
June 19, 2026 12:19 p.m.
Max Boot
CFR Expert
Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies
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Max Boot is a historian, bestselling author, and foreign-policy analyst. His latest book, a biography of Ronald Reagan titled
Reagan: His Life and Legend
, is his third New York Times bestseller.
With the signing of a
Memorandum of Understanding
(MOU) on Wednesday, the Iran war is over, at least for now. The full ramifications are not yet obvious. We do not know, for example, what restrictions on its nuclear program, if any, Iran will ultimately agree on as part of the follow-on negotiations—though the economic windfall President Donald Trump is offering Tehran up front greatly lessens the Islamic Republic’s incentive to compromise. But one thing can already be said with confidence: The war was not worth the high price paid for it.
There is, first,
the human cost
. The U.S. lost thirteen troops in the conflict, while Iran lost over 3,375 people, including
170 killed
in what was likely a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls’ school. Twenty-si…
OSAMA BIN LADEN consulted PAKISTAN in Washington, District of Columbia, United States
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Iran Policy Memo: What Comes Next? - J Street
Iran Policy Memo: What Comes Next? - J Street
For the past 18 months, Iran has suffered one strategic setback after another. The downward trend began with the Biden Administration successfully defending Israel against two brazen Iranian missile attacks and continued with the degradation of Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, and the devastation of the 12-day war. The most recent challenge for Iran came on September 27, when the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) implemented the snapback mechanism, reimposing UN sanctions that had been lifted by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Iran is now weak and vulnerable, yet perhaps as dangerous as ever. The reality is that, despite the operational successes of the past two years, the first Trump Administration’s decision to walk away from the Iran nuclear agreement, combined with the recent war between Israel and Iran, means that Iran may be more motivated than ever to pursue a nuclear weapon while maintaining the capability to do so. Absent a renewed diplomatic process, additional conflict seems likely, if not inevitable. However, diplomatic progress is attainable and remains the best approach for addressing the challenges posed by Iran. Th…
Iran promises ‘utter ruin’ if war restarts. Here’s what ... - CNN
Iran promises ‘utter ruin’ if war restarts. Here’s what ... - CNN
People walk past a mural depicting the late leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the late Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, May 12, 2026.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
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Summary
As Iran negotiates with the United States, it threatens to expand attacks beyond the Middle East if war resumes.
Experts assess Iran is engaging in rhetorical posturing but remain wary of Tehran's ability to deploy AI drone swarms, jam satellites and target American bases in Europe.
Iran may also activate Houthi proxies to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and compound global economic pressure.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
As negotiations between the United States and Iran edge toward
a possible agreement
, Tehran is increasingly signaling that any return to war would look very different from the last.
US officials said Thursday that a tentative agreement had been reached in talks between Tehran and Washington and was awaiting President Donald Trump’s approval. Yet even as …
Stalemate: A Fragile Balance in the Iran War
Stalemate: A Fragile Balance in the Iran War
US efforts to impose demands on Iran by force have failed, while Iran’s attempt to enforce its own terms through selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also fallen short. The result is a tense stalemate that could still shift toward renewed escalation or a negotiated settlement.
Vance and Ghalibaf at an Impasse [Agencies]
The decision by US President Donald Trump to extend the ceasefire in the war with Iran shortly before its expiration marked a striking shift from his earlier rhetoric, which had emphasised escalation and outright destruction. The extension, reportedly encouraged by Pakistani mediation, was framed as an opportunity for Iran’s leadership to formulate a unified response to a proposed agreement. Yet the ambiguity surrounding the duration of the extension, alongside conflicting signals from Washington, reflected deeper uncertainty within the American approach. This shift followed Iran’s refusal to attend a second round of negotiations under pressure, raising critical questions about the balance of power and the strategic calculations on both sides.
Iran’s conduct throughout the conflict reveals a deliberate strategy …
Analysis-US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals ...
Analysis-US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals ...
Audio By Carbonatix
By Samia Nakhoul
BEIRUT, June 18 (Reuters) – The U.S.-Iran agreement — the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — is being hailed by its backers as the deal of the century.
But for Tehran’s adversaries across the Middle East — from Israel to Gulf states and factions in Lebanon — it looks more like the curse of the century: an accord that could leave Iran more secure, more legitimate and ultimately more influential.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the interim deal on Wednesday, ending a three-month war. Trump chose to formalise it at Versailles, on the sidelines of the G7 summit — a setting widely seen as symbolic of the remaking of international order after conflict.
The 14-point agreement extends a ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, to allow negotiations on a permanent settlement and address issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme.
“For Washington and Tehran, this is a grand bargain — the deal of the century, with no turning back,” said Lebanese commentator Sarkis Naoum. “The probab…
Iran's Provocations in Hormuz Demand Firm US Response
Iran's Provocations in Hormuz Demand Firm US Response
World
2
min read
The reports of escalating tensions and war preparations in Iran, coupled with the conflicting narratives surrounding the alleged incident involving a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz, demand a firm and unequivocal response from the United States. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital strategic chokepoint, and any disruption to its navigability poses a direct threat to global energy security and American interests. The Iranian regime's history of belligerence and disregard for international norms necessitates a posture of strength and deterrence. The stalled negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program are a direct consequence of Iran's unwillingness to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons capabilities. The policy of appeasement pursued by previous administrations has only emboldened the regime and fueled its destabilizing activities in the region. The United States must maintain a credible military presence in the Strait of Hormuz and be prepared to defend its interests and those of its allies. Any attack on a US warship or commercial vessel must be met with a swift and decisive response. Furthermore, the U…
State media releases reported details of Iran-US draft deal
State media releases reported details of Iran-US draft deal
Iran has shown it will not compromise on its core principles or allow the "Axis of Resistance" to be sacrificed, an Iranian lawmaker said, citing Tehran's military action against Israel in support of Lebanon.
"The Islamic Republic will not allow the 'Axis of Resistance' to be sacrificed, and by attacking Israel in support of Lebanon, it showed that it does not bargain over its values," Fathollah Tavassoli, a member of parliament, said on Friday.
A member of Iran’s parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee denied any split between the Islamic Republic’s military and diplomatic decision-makers, saying both sides take orders from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Mansour Haghighatpour said Western countries were hoping to hear signs of division among Iranian officials, but argued that military and diplomatic actors operate under the same command.
“Both Majid the precision-striker (IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Majid Mousavi) and Mohammad-Bagher the negotiator (Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) take orders from one commander named Mojtaba Khamenei,” Haghighatpour said. “So in r…
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Iran's Victory Is More Pyrrhic Than It Looks - Foreign Policy
Iran's Victory Is More Pyrrhic Than It Looks - Foreign Policy
Argument
An expert’s point of view on a current event.
Iran’s Victory Is More Pyrrhic Than It Looks
The Islamic Republic has survived. Now comes the hard part.
By
Menahem Merhavy
, a research fellow at the Harry S. Truman Institute at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a lecturer at Shalem College.
A man sits in front of a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10.
A man sits in front of a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in Vanak Square in Tehran on June 10.
Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
Iran
Middle East and North Africa
June 17, 2026, 5:06 AM
The emerging U.S.-Iranian cease-fire framework invites a deceptively simple question: Who won the war? It is also the wrong question. Iran did not defeat the United States and Israel, nor did the Islamic Republic collapse under military pressure. What matters now is what Tehran managed to preserve, what it permanently lost, and whether a battered regime can convert a negotiated respite into political survival without unleashing the public expectations it has spent years repressing.
The reported framework cen…
Trump and Netanyahu's Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a ...
Trump and Netanyahu's Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a ...
Trump and Netanyahu’s Lurch into Iran: Imperial Hubris in the Wake of a People’s Uprising
Kevin B. Anderson
March 1, 2026
Length: 1744 words
Summary: Iranian people face attacks from both US imperialism/Israel and a brutally oppressive regime amid their struggle for democracy and social justice – Editors
French version
here
Italian version
here
Greek version
here
Dutch version
here
Chinese version
here
Reeking of Imperial Hubris
Seizing upon what they consider to be a generational opportunity, with Iran’s theocratic dictatorship shaken by the January people’s uprising, Trump and Netanyahu launched a “prolonged” attack from the air on February 28. While the attacks are aimed, they say, at eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile capacity, it clearly involves an effort at regime change. With their nefarious surprise attack – conducted in the middle of negotiations — and the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in his residence along with other regime leaders and members of his family, they have committed at least three major war crimes: launching a war of aggression, attacks on the civilian popu…
Will the US achieve a 'big, beautiful' Iran deal or stall in homeostasis?
Will the US achieve a 'big, beautiful' Iran deal or stall in homeostasis?
The brief
Twelve Day War
between Israel (backed by the United States) and Iran in June—and the recent cease-fire between Israel and Hamas—has led to new questions about whether a deal may now be possible with Tehran, given its increasing isolation on the world stage.
The Gaza cease-fire showcases how, when US President Donald Trump gets personally involved and deploys the full weight of US leverage and creative negotiating tactics, the seemingly impossible can become possible. Israelis, Palestinians, the United States, and the region still have much work ahead to ensure the conflict does not reignite. Trump and his team could try to build on momentum from the Gaza cease-fire to focus on a broader regional deal—that includes addressing Iran, as Trump
mentioned
in his Knesset speech this month.
There are two broad paths. One, a negotiated deal that could bring long-term resolution. Or two, a fragile cease-fire that is periodically interrupted by conflict. There are risks and opportunities in each scenario.
Scenario one: A ‘big, beautiful’ deal
A “big, beautiful deal” would likely require the United States to o…
Fox's Trey Gowdy complains about the MOU: Iran is "better off than they ...
Fox's Trey Gowdy complains about the MOU: Iran is "better off than they ...
Video file
Citation
From June 17, 2026, edition of Fox News'
America Reports
SANDRA SMITH (ANCHOR): Please do share with us where you are with all of this as we get a better understanding at the terms of the deal.
TREY GOWDY (FOX CONTRIBUTOR): Sandra, it is wonderful to see you. I was a little surprised, honestly. We literally had our foot on their throat militarily, economically. And I read this MOU, if you will, I guess about 48 hours ago, and I didn't believe it. I thought somebody was spoofing me when I saw it. Because I see what we are giving up, and then I see this word downblend, and I'm not the smartest guy in the world, Sandra, but if you can downblend you can up blend and how long would it take Iran to up blend because Donald Trump is going to be gone in January of 2029 but the so-called Supreme Leader is not going to be.
So here is my question for my fellow citizens: Do you really think Iran has abandoned its nuclear ambition? Do you believe them? What do you think they are going to do with $300 billion? What are the going to do with the oil revenue? Do you think they are going to build schools?…
No victors, only losers: How Iran war left every side… - inkl
No victors, only losers: How Iran war left every side… - inkl
In war, there are usually winners. Someone gains territory, influence, or deterrence. The Iran war has produced none of that. After months of fighting, thousands of casualties, soaring energy prices, and one of the largest American military deployments in the Middle East in decades, it is difficult to identify a single participant that achieved its central objective.
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What began as a campaign to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat and reassert Western deterrence has instead become a case study in the limits of military power.
The United States spent billions without securing surrender. Israel widened the conflict without finding a lasting solution. Iran absorbed devastating losses yet remained standing. Russia and China watched a partner come under attack with little ability to shape events. Even countries far from the battlefield paid the price through disrupted trade and volatile energy markets.
When President Donald Trump declared that the United States had "complete and total control of the skies over Iran" and called for Iran's "unconditional surrender",…
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
War on Iran Epic Fury Turns Epic Folly A. J. Philip - Indian Currents
War on Iran Epic Fury Turns Epic Folly A. J. Philip - Indian Currents
Three weeks ago, the United States military looked invincible as President Donald Trump assembled what seemed the greatest concentration of force ever deployed in waters around Iran. When it became clear that the "Great Satan" was joined by the "little Satan" — Israel — the world braced for catastrophe for the regime of the Ayatollahs.
Yet today, the question nobody seems eager to ask is a simple one: what exactly has been achieved?
When the United States and Israel abruptly stopped their aggression against Iran last year, both governments declared that their objectives had been met. Trump boasted that the massive bombing had permanently destroyed Iran's enrichment facilities. Media outlets filled their pages with elaborate descriptions of bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating deep underground and obliterating hardened installations.
The message was clear: Iran's nuclear ambitions had been crushed. But that narrative has steadily begun to unravel.
Iran did retaliate, inflicting significant damage on a US military base in the region. The engagement, therefore, was never entirely one-sided. Yet the swift …
Global South Backs Iran Amid Rising Conflict
Global South Backs Iran Amid Rising Conflict
(I have not identified the man in the video)
Iran has launched a direct military response against Israel, targeting multiple high-value sites including Tel Aviv’s financial center, the Israeli Ministry of Defense, Telnof Air Base, and gas platforms off Gaza. The missile barrage reportedly included hypersonic weapons and was launched after coordinated strikes by the U.S., U.K., and E.U. across Iranian territory.
Claims circulated in NATO-country media that most Iranian missiles failed to reach their targets contradict reports from Iranian sources and regional observers. Western news channels are presenting a heavily filtered narrative, similar to the pattern used in coverage of Ukraine’s war with Russia. That narrative promotes the idea of Israeli missile defense dominance and downplays the precision and impact of Iranian strikes.
Among the notable outcomes of Iran’s response is the reported downing of a U.S. F-35 fighter jet. If confirmed, this would be the first known instance of the jet being neutralized in active combat, and it raises questions about the viability of expensive next-generation systems against modern missile technol…
Bowen: US-Iran Deal Raises Inescapable Question of What the War Was For
Bowen: US-Iran Deal Raises Inescapable Question of What the War Was For
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Bowen: US-Iran Deal Raises Inescapable Question of What the War Was For
World News
Thursday, June 18, 2026
The memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran lays out the political, military and economic consequences of the ill-judged decision to attack Iran on 28 February.
The human cost is already clear. Thousands have been killed, many of them civilians, in Iran and Lebanon.
The US, and by extension Israel, have suffered a strategic defeat. The regime in Tehran faced its worst nightmare: a joint military operation to cripple or destroy it by the US, the world's strongest power, and Israel, the Middle East's superpower. The regime has not just survived. It has been empowered.
Its strategy of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and with it one fifth of the world's supplies of oil and gas as well as other vital components in the global economy, has forced Trump to agree to a series of concessions that have infuriated and alarmed America's Iran hawks and the Israeli government.
The memorandum of understanding - or MOU - calls for an end to the war in …
Dances With Bears » IRAN, RUSSIA, UAE, AND INDIA FOR GULF REGION PEACE ...
Dances With Bears » IRAN, RUSSIA, UAE, AND INDIA FOR GULF REGION PEACE ...
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By John Helmer, Moscow,with Sahar Dadjoo, Teheran@bears_with
As tensions persist between Iran and the United States amid intensified military signaling and renewed talk of negotiations, critical questions remain about Washington’s real strategy and the risk of a broader regional conflict. In this context, Tehran Times spoke with John Helmer, a veteran journalist and geopolitical analyst based in Moscow, to examine the shifting balance of power and the prospects for de-escalation.Published todayhere.
Q: In his February 1 statement, Ayatollah Khamenei warned that any US military action would expand into a regional war. How does this reflect the interconnected military and political dynamics of today’s Middle East?
You understand—and I hope your audience understands—that I am a Russia correspondent. I have spent 30 years in Russia, so I am speaking from a Russian point of view. I think it is valuable for your audience to understand that perspective.
I understood the February 1 statement as expressing something obvious, but with implications that are less obvious. It is very clear that Ira…
The US-Iran Stalemate and the Rise of a Global Polycrisis | Crisis24
The US-Iran Stalemate and the Rise of a Global Polycrisis | Crisis24
Intelligence Analysis
7 MAY 2026
/
8 min read
Author
Crisis24 Middle East Team
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The prolonged US-Israel-Iran crisis is already reshaping the global operating environment, forcing corporations and governments to confront an emergency that is no longer impending but underway. What is unfolding today is best understood as a “polycrisis,” where geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and supply chain disruptions converge and reinforce one another, producing worldwide ripple effects across borders and markets.
The US–Iran stalemate is unlikely to hold. Absent meaningful negotiations, renewed escalation is likely to occur, and fighting will likely break out with limited warning.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to act as a global economic shock driver, creating volatility in energy, shipping, and insurance markets, with cascading effects on supply chains and food security.
The conflict has evolved into a systemic risk, not a regional one. Its effects are reinforcing a broader global polycrisis, amplifying economic instability and geopolitical fragmentation.
Iran retains esc…
We Bombed the Wrong Target - Small Wars Journal
We Bombed the Wrong Target - Small Wars Journal
Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign launched on February 28, 2026, has destroyed significant elements of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and decapitated portions of its leadership. What it has not destroyed, and what no air campaign alone can destroy, is Iran’s forty-year strategic investment in a distributed proxy architecture spanning Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Gaza. The nuclear program was always the headline threat; the proxy network is the enduring one. As the Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea shipping and Kataib Hezbollah threatens U.S. bases across Iraq, the morning after Operation Epic Fury reveals a strategic truth that American planners have long resisted: when you remove a state’s conventional deterrent, you do not produce a compliant state, you produce a state with every incentive to fight asymmetrically, indefinitely, and below the threshold of direct confrontation. This article argues that Iran’s proxy network now functions as its primary strategic center of gravity, that the network was specifically designed to survive exactly this kind of decapitation strike, and that the United States must develo…
Iran Got a Great Deal That It Could Still Squander - The Atlantic
Iran Got a Great Deal That It Could Still Squander - The Atlantic
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The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran appears to have ended the war on terms favorable to the Islamic Republic. It releases frozen Iranian assets, relaxes restrictions on Iranian oil sales, and lifts the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—in exchange for Iran ending its closure of the waterway. In other words, Iran receives things it didn’t have before the war in exchange for giving up something it wasn’t doing before the war.
But as good as these terms might look for Iran, they’ve still proved controversial within the Islamic Republic. In the days before the agreement, a loud coterie of hard-liners threw everything it had against the deal. A member of Parliament from Tehran
said
that signing the deal would make Iran “a colony of the United States.” Hard-line demonstrators
wished
“death” on the two men who led the talks with the U.S.: Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister (respectively tagged as “the compromiser” and “the dishonorable”).
Hard-liners oppose the memorandum of understanding becau…
[ED] Iran's reconstruction & US allies - The Korea Times
[ED] Iran's reconstruction & US allies - The Korea Times
An Iranian man walks past a mural featuring anti-U.S. imagery in Enghelab Square in central Tehran, Sunday. UPI
Reports that a postwar memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran may include a $300 billion reconstruction fund, with contributions expected from allied nations and their corporations, raise important questions about responsibility, burden-sharing and the future of international cooperation.
While the U.S. government has not officially confirmed the details, multiple media reports suggest that the proposed agreement would combine sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets and the creation of a massive reconstruction fund designed to rebuild Iran's economy and infrastructure after years of conflict and isolation. Of particular concern is the suggestion that much of the financing would come not from the United States itself, but from investments by companies based in allied and partner countries, including Korea.
If these reports are accurate, the proposal deserves careful scrutiny. Economic reconstruction is an essential component of lasting peace. Yet there is a significant diff…
After the war
After the war
<p>NOW that the war is winding down, an important question needs to be asked. Will the rulers of Iran remember with gratitude the role Pakistan played in helping secure a dignified ending for them?</p>
<p>Iran is set to emerge as a great power in this region now, having absorbed the might of what the Zionist alliance could throw at it (short of nuclear weapons) and yet kept their cities functioning, the Strait of Hormuz under their control and forced the superpower to break off from the wishes of the Israel lobby and push for a settlement with Iran instead. Having absorbed the full might of the superpower’s bombing and emerged intact and in control is no small feat. It is a demonstration of their hard power, and once the US retreats from the region, which it will have to now, Iran is set to emerge as a power to be reckoned with.</p>
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<div class='media__item media__item--newskitlink '> <iframe
class="nk-iframe"
width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="height:250px;position:relative"
s…
100 Days of Iran War: Winners and Losers - Newsweek
100 Days of Iran War: Winners and Losers - Newsweek
By
Brendan Cole
Senior News Reporter
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There may be no clear victor yet, but as the Iran war marks its 100th day on Sunday, early winners and losers have emerged that have upset pre-conflict predictions.
Political and business leaders often tout their first 100 days in office as a timeframe to achieve swift objectives, but as the war hits the milestone, other significant numbers have come to the fore. These include up to 2,211 people killed, more than 22,000 injured and more than 3.9 million displaced, according to missile strikes.com, although estimates vary.
In just over three months, the war has spread to Lebanon, energy markets have been upended, Iran has retaliated with strikes across the Gulf, and the U.S. standing in the region, as well as global diplomacy, have been severely tested, raising questions over who has benefited and who has been hurt so far.
Read More
on
World
...
Winners
1. Iran's Regime
The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Febru…
Iran's Economic Realities Amid War - Middle East Institute
Iran's Economic Realities Amid War - Middle East Institute
Iran entered this war after years ofsustained economic pressure. Sanctions, isolation, and structural weaknesses have already produced a fragile economy marked by inflation, currency instability, and constrained growth. The war has intensified these pressures, but it has not represented a fundamentally new shock. Rather, it is an escalation of existing pressure on an already weakened system, one that has learned to function under constraint.
But Iran is now in unchartered economic territory. Tehran says the war has causedroughly $270 billionin damage, equivalent to around 57% of GDP, suggesting its recovery will take many years. Each additional month that the war continues could set the Iranian economy back by more than five years, reflecting the compounding impact on capital stock and productivity.
This matters for assessing the impact of new US measures, particularly the imposition of anaval blockadeof Iranian ports. Iran’s economy is under strain, but it is not easily broken. Over decades, Tehran has developed workarounds: informal trade networks, indirect routing, andopaque shipping practicesthat allow continued — bu…
Why Sanctions Alone Won't Stop Iran—The IRGC Must Be Fractured
Why Sanctions Alone Won't Stop Iran—The IRGC Must Be Fractured
An Air Force F-16 Viper taxis just a few hundred feet from the wall of fire at the Fort Worth Alliance Air Show, Oct. 28, 2017 at Fort Worth, Texas. (Courtesy photo by Air Force Viper Demo Team)
The United States has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with the
Islamic Republic
of
Iran
.
More than a decade ago, President Hassan Rouhani acknowledged that the Iranian economy had shrunk 5.4 percent. Secretary of State John Kerry’s response was not to take advantage of Iran’s desperation to impose terms but rather to subsidize the Iranian regime to the tune of $1 billion monthly to reward it for coming to the table.
The strategy was so strategically backward as to defy any explanation other than Kerry hoped to win a Nobel Prize by sacrificing U.S. national security. Even though the resulting Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was just a political agreement and not a treaty, Kerry designed it to discourage any future successor from reconsidering his commitments. This is why he frontloaded Iran’s payoff.
Kerry’s broader generosity toward Iran in the face of both need and logic was a further gift to the Isla…
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Executive summary
The United States publicly declared it had achieved victory after negotiating a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, with President Trump saying the U.S. had won a "total and complete victory" and that American forces had "met and exceeded" military objectives[1][2]. Available reporting does not record an equivalent official Iranian declaration of victory; Tehran has framed the conflict as costly but survivable, emphasizing resilience and regional retaliation rather than an outright proclamation of defeat or triumph[3][4].
1. How the United States framed the endgame: a public declaration of victory
U.S. officials, led by President Trump, publicly presented the ceasefire as proof that American military goals had been achieved, with Trump telling AFP the United States had won a "total and complete victory" after securing the two‑week truce and claiming Iran’s military had been significantly degraded[1][2]. U.S. messaging—reported by Reuters and the BBC—emphasized attainment of objectives suc…
RCSGS | Research - The Iran War and Its Global Consequences
RCSGS | Research - The Iran War and Its Global Consequences
Introduction
The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran has rapidly evolved into one of the most consequential geopolitical crises of the decade. What began as coordinated strikes against Iranian military facilities in late February 2026 has developed into a multidimensional conflict involving missile warfare, regional spillover, economic disruption, and growing strategic uncertainty about the war’s trajectory and endgame.
Within less than two weeks, the conflict has already reshaped the strategic environment across the Middle East and beyond. Iranian missile and drone strikes have targeted U.S. bases and strategic infrastructure across the Gulf, including installations in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar. According to figures cited by U.S. officials, the conflict has caused more than 1,200 deaths in Iran, 570 in Lebanon, and at least 12 in Israel, while seven American service members have also been killed in action.
The conflict has also produced immediate economic consequences. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply…
Questioning the U.S.' Superpower Status: What Does the Iran War Tell ...
Questioning the U.S.' Superpower Status: What Does the Iran War Tell ...
May 22, 2026
A
fter the end of the Cold War, the United States began to dominate the world as the sole superpower. Over the past 35 years, the Americans, maintaining this singularity, have tried to punish their enemies and the countries they declared as enemies by invading them. For this purpose, they occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, the latter having no connection to the 9/11 attacks while the former’s sheltering of Bin Laden did not require invasion of the whole country. Allies also did not withhold their support from the U.S. in these occupations.
Americans, together with Israel, who consider it their duty to attack countries they have labeled as enemies and try to legitimize it with excuses such as democracy and human rights, most recently attacked Iran on February 28. More than two months have passed but the Israel‑U.S. duo, which killed all Iranian leaders on the first day with Iran’s initial naivete, still have not achieved their goals. No regime has collapsed, no country has been occupied, Iran’s nuclear program has not been destroyed, and the Iranian army has not been neutralized. Moreover, Iran’s c…
What was it all for? US-Iran agreement brings bitter rivals full ... - CNN
What was it all for? US-Iran agreement brings bitter rivals full ... - CNN
Residents sit amid debris in a residential building that was hit in an airstrike on March 30, 2026, in the west of Tehran, Iran.
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
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Summary
After a year of military conflict that killed thousands, the US and Iran have reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hold further talks on Tehran's nuclear program.
The cycle mirrors last year's failed diplomacy, raising questions about whether repeated military campaigns have made the region more secure.
Iran’s ability to cause chaos from drones, mines and missiles is something the United States and its allies palpably fear.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
A 60-day deadline for Iran to make a nuclear deal as the threat of US force looms. President Donald Trump saying he hopes for a deal even as Tehran’s leadership talks tough, and as Israel pushes for more military action.
Sound familiar? While déjà vu is technically an illusion of the mind, the above has happened once before. It is both where the Middle East is to…
Ten lessons from the first month of the Iran war - Atlantic Council
Ten lessons from the first month of the Iran war - Atlantic Council
A man looks at a residential building damaged by a strike, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, on March 27, 2026. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters)
One month ago, US and Israeli forces launched a military campaign against the Iranian regime that has had
profound
,
globe-spanning consequences
ever since—from
energy markets to the global economy
, and from
the
Gulf
and
broader Middle East
to
Romania
,
Sri Lanka
,
Russia, and China
.
With scenarios for the conflict’s next phrase ranging from diplomatic off-ramps to military escalation, we asked Atlantic Council experts to identify their biggest takeaways from the war so far.
What we’ve learned about . . .
The Iranian regime
US military capabilities
The Trump doctrine
The Iranian opposition
The Gulf states
Israel
The global economy
Global energy markets
Russia and Iran
China and Iran
The Iranian regime
One month into the Iran war, the Iranian regime is bruised, battered, and (perhaps irrationally) bullish about its future. The regime’s apparatus has withstood the decapitation of its leadership and
more than 15,000 strikes
on its capabilities and…
Gulf Security, Iranian Isolation, and Regional Paramountcy After the War
Gulf Security, Iranian Isolation, and Regional Paramountcy After the War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, wears a protective vest and helmet as he speaks with commanders and soldiers on Monday, Dec. 25, 2023. (Avi Ohayon/GPO/Handout via AP)
What follows the war is not a new regional order, but a contest between a weakened Iran, hedging Gulf states, and an emboldened Israel pursuing regional primacy.
GCC
Geopolitics
Commentary
Posted On: April 9, 2026
6
minutes read
GCC
Geopolitics
Commentary
Dr. H.A. Hellyer
Dr. H.A. Hellyer
In the wake of the recent ceasefire, there is much talk of a “New Middle East.” The phrase implies a transition toward something new—a more stable, more integrated regional order emerging from the wreckage of conflict. The evidence tells a different story. What is taking shape is colder and more competitive than what came before. It is not a new order, but a prolonged contest between incompatible visions of regional security, none of which hold dominance. That contest will define Gulf–Iran relations, U.S. security commitments, and Israeli regional ambitions for the foreseeable future.
No Return to Détente
Tehran’s asymmetric tools, including …
Israel's War Against Iran Is a Gamble - And To Pay Off, It Can't Afford ...
Israel's War Against Iran Is a Gamble - And To Pay Off, It Can't Afford ...
News
4 min read
27
Israel’s War Against Iran Is a Gamble – And To Pay Off, It Can’t Afford To Miss
Zeeshan ul Hassan
June 16, 2025
0
Table of Contents
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Introduction
In the ever-volatile Middle East, Israel’s escalating conflict with Iran has entered a critical and dangerous phase. What was once a shadow war of covert operations, cyberattacks, and proxy skirmishes has now evolved into more direct confrontations. As tensions soar, Israel’s decision to strike deep into Iranian territory represents not just military ambition—but a high-stakes gamble with massive geopolitical implications.
This article explores the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, why Israel’s bold moves are a strategic risk, and what’s at stake for the broader region.
The Shift from Proxy War to Direct Confrontation
For years, Israel and Iran have engaged in a low-intensity conflict marked by espionage, sabotage, and indirect warfare through regional proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and various Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq. However, recent attacks—particularly Israeli strikes on Iranian military installations and nu…
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit and the Limits of U.S. Military Power - CSIS
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit and the Limits of U.S. Military Power - CSIS
Photo: U.S. Navy via Getty Images
Commentary
byDaniel Byman
Published April 20, 2026
The current standoff between the United States and Iran is no longer a clash of capabilities but rather a struggle of political endurance and bargaining leverage. The United States began the conflict with broad, butoften unclear, goals that included stopping Iran’s nuclear program, weakening Iran’s missile and conventional military capabilities, and regime change. It is now a contest involving maritime coercion, domestic political constraints, and even great power competition. The result is a war whose trajectory is less defined by battlefield outcomes than by each side’s expectations about the other’s willingness to bear costs.
At the operational level, the conflict has settled into a paradoxical equilibrium: Iran has sought to disrupt global energy flows through a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States hasrespondedby “blockading the blockaders,” blocking trafficto and from Iranian ports. Tehran’s tool kit—drones, naval mines, and swarming small boats—imposes risk and u…
Experts react: The US and Israel just unleashed a major attack on Iran ...
Experts react: The US and Israel just unleashed a major attack on Iran ...
Smoke rises following an explosion in Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026. (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS Connect.)
He went big. On Saturday morning, US and Israeli forces unleashed Operation Epic Fury, what US President Donald Trump called “a massive and ongoing” campaign against Iran. He called on the Iranian people to overthrow the regime once the fighting is done. Iran responded quickly by attacking Israel and US bases in the region. Below, our experts assess the unfolding war and where it goes from here.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
Nate Swanson: We know the objective—and little else
Jonathan Panikoff: The Iranian regime is under unprecedented strain, but beware ‘IRGCistan’
Matthew Kroenig: A high-risk, high-reward campaign
Jennifer Gavito: Iran’s retaliation signals that it is not planning to deescalate
Daniel Shapiro: Trump’s order leaves questions for the American people
Danny Citrinowicz: A campaign with an abstract objective and no clear endgame
Thomas S. Warrick: This war will have a home front in the United States
Celeste Kmiotek: This campaign has serious implications for internatio…
The Crisis Iran’s Leaders Can’t Ignore - The Atlantic
The Crisis Iran’s Leaders Can’t Ignore - The Atlantic
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The war between Iran and Israel and the United States has been an economic catastrophe for Iranians. Their country has lost at least 1 million
jobs
—possibly 2 million—since the war began. In the same period, almost 300,000 eligible Iranians have
signed up
for unemployment insurance, and job-seeking websites are so inundated with new applications that they keep crashing.
U.S. and Israeli strikes over the winter degraded Iran’s industrial capacity. At the same time, the blockade that the U.S. imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Iran’s seizure of control of the waterway, has made life difficult for businesses that rely on imports. So has the continued fall of the Iranian currency: A U.S. dollar now
sells
for 1.75 million Iranian rials.
The regime compounded these effects with its total shutdown of the internet, first during the mass protests in January and then during the war. Access is now mostly
restored
, but for many Iranians who relied on the internet for their work, the damage is already done. Iran might end up experiencing a double-digit economic
contraction
this year—a calamity…
Sensing an edge, Iran 'ready to gamble' it can outlast Trump
Sensing an edge, Iran 'ready to gamble' it can outlast Trump
Sensing an edge, Iran 'ready to gamble' it can outlast Trump
by Stuart Williams
May 12, 2026
Add AL-MONITOR on Google
Iran believes it has the upper hand in the conflict — ATTA KENARE
Iran's leadership is betting it can outlast an under-pressure Donald Trump in its peace negotiations with Washington, but its defiance risks renewed military confrontation and further stoking domestic tensions, analysts say.
With a shaky ceasefire holding almost two-and-a-half months after the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic began, the US president has angrily dismissed Iran's responses to a US proposal for a settlement, warning the truce is on its last legs.
But analysts say that even after the killing of long-time supreme leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iran's leadership remains fiercely ideological and dedicated to the preservation of the Islamic republic set up in the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah.
"They do think they can outlast Trump. The war is existential for them," Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told AFP.
Iran underst…
Has Iran won the war by not losing? - Engelsberg Ideas
Has Iran won the war by not losing? - Engelsberg Ideas
Notebooks
Iran's survival strategy has leveraged a form of warfare grounded in geo-economic calculation.
Even during the Pakistan-led mediation efforts to finalise adraft dealbetween Tehran and Washington, US President Donald Trump used a 23 May press conference to effectively declare victory, yet again boasting of having ‘decapitated’ Iran’s leadership. The declaration, however, may ring hollow (and premature) without consensus on the ultimate metric of success. After all, is thetrue measure of victorywhat was destroyed, or what survived?
For Tehran, itsability since 28 February to defy predictionsof immediate regime collapse under the US-Israel bombardment has validated its decades-long contentions. The Islamic Republic’s strategy can be summarised as: ‘Hit me with your best shot, I can take it and give as good as I get – and give you both a bloody nose.’ That sentiment was captured in apost on Xby Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, who invoked an episode from Sasanian history during which Rome was forced to make peace on Persian terms, a not-so-subtle suggestion that Iran, too, believes it has emerged vic…
The Costs of the War With Iran Will Mount For Decades - Forbes
The Costs of the War With Iran Will Mount For Decades - Forbes
Business
Aerospace & Defense
The Costs of the War With Iran Will Mount For Decades
By
William Hartung
,
Contributor.
Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights.
I am a defense analyst, and cover the economics of Pentagon spending.
Follow Author
Mar 04, 2026, 07:13am EST
TEHRAN, IRAN - MARCH 02: A general view of Tehran with smoke visible in the distance after explosions were reported in the city, on March 02, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Contributor/Getty Images)
Getty Images
The latest war in the Middle East, initiated when Israel and the United States bombed Iran on February 28th, has already morphed into a regionwide conflict, with attacks by one side or the other in Israel, Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, with targets ranging from U.S. military bases in the region, to Israeli cities, to a girls elementary school in Iran. On Tuesday, a U.S. strike hit a major hospital in Tehran, and nurses were seen evacuating babies in incubators. Six U.S. service members have died in the conflict as of this writing.
Casualties are hard to track because they are mounting so rapidly, but well over 1…
Iran may 'lash out harder' following Khamenei's death - CNBC
Iran may 'lash out harder' following Khamenei's death - CNBC
In this article
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is fueling fears that Washington's pursuit of regime change in Iran, and Tehran's retaliation, could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe, leaving global leaders scrambling to assess the fallout.
Follow CNBC's live coverage of the U.S.-Israel strikes in Iran
The U.S. and Israel launchedjoint strikeson Iran over the weekend, killing the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting waves of attacks by Tehran across the region.
President Donald Trump made it clear in a video message Saturday following the initial wave of U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran that his objective was "eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people."
Geopolitical analysts warned that Saturday's strikes could be the opening salvo of a sustained military campaign aimed at dismantling the Iranian regime, with the U.S. seeking to assert dominance over the world's most critical oil-producing region.
"The scale of the strikes by the U.S. and Israel, along with the apparent goal of regime change in Iran, suggest the…
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
A guide to what the U.S. and Iran appear to disagree about now | AP …
A guide to what the U.S. and Iran appear to disagree about now | AP …
Iran again launched drone and missile attacks Sunday targeting Bahrain and Kuwait in response to new U.S. airstrikes against the Islamic Republic, and threatened a “complete halt” in negotiations to end the war if Washington continues its attacks.
Motorbikes drive past a banner showing a portrait of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in downtown Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
People walk past banners showing portraits of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in downtown Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
The United States and Iran have less than 60 days to negotiate a permanent end tothe war, but they still seem to be at odds overthe interim dealthey reached this month.
It’s not even clear when the two sides will meet again. “The situation is sensitive and complex,” a senior Iranian negotiator, Kazem Gharibabadi, posted Monday on X.
Talks are just one of the pressing questions. Others include theStrait of Hormuz, which the U.S. says is open while Iran insists on a measure of control. The issue led both sides tocarry o…
From Missiles to Minds: Iran's Influence-Driven War Strategy - ICT
From Missiles to Minds: Iran's Influence-Driven War Strategy - ICT
Download Abstract This paper analyzes Iran’s operational strategy during the current conflict, arguing that Tehran…
Download
Abstract
This paper analyzes Iran’s operational strategy during the current conflict, arguing that Tehran has adopted an influence-centric approach in which cognitive effects are prioritized over conventional military outcomes. Facing clear limitations in its ability to confront the combined military capabilities of Israel and the United States, Iran has shifted toward a multidimensional campaign designed to shape perceptions, erode civilian resilience, and influence political decision-making across multiple audiences. This paper argues that under this evolving strategy, kinetic actions, including missile and UAV strikes, do not primarily serve as military tools, but as instruments of coercion and signaling intended to generate psychological pressure and cause disruption in the regional and international arenas.
Drawing on examples from Iranian and affiliated content, this paper demonstrates how Iran integrates kinetic, economic, and informational efforts into a unified strategy aimed at impo…
Coercion Without Ownership: The Real Trump Playbook on Iran
Coercion Without Ownership: The Real Trump Playbook on Iran
B-2 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
What Is Trump’s Real Strategy on Iran?
Much of the commentary on
Donald Trump’s approach to Iran
begins from a familiar assumption: that he is bent on toppling the Islamic Republic—the reading mistakes both his instincts and his record. Trump has
little interest in regime change
and even less appetite for nation-
building
.
A B-2 Spirit prepares to take-off from Nellis Air Force Base, Nev. during Bamboo Eagle, Jan. 29, 2024. Bamboo Eagle provides Airmen, allies, and partners with a multidimensional, combat-representative battle-space to conduct advanced training in support of U.S. national interests. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Bryson Britt)
He does, however, have a very real interest in bending adversarial regimes to his will. His objective with Iran can therefore best be characterized as “regime reorientation”—that is, forcing the existing machinery of rule to adjust its external behavior and strategic alignments so that they no longer collide with American interests. The model here is
Venezuela
. In that case, Trump left the regime essentially untouched—minus Madur…
Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war | The Straits Times
Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war | The Straits Times
Gulf recalibrates as Iran emerges intact from war
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An Iranian woman walks on a street, after U.S. and Iranian officials said they had reached a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Published
Jun 15, 2026, 08:39 PM
Updated
Jun 15, 2026, 08:49 PM
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BEIRUT, June 15 - The U.S.-Iran deal may silence the guns, but it cannot alter the verdict of more than three months of war.
The region has emerged from one of its most dangerous crises in decades with the balance of power broadly unchanged, Iran politically emboldened, and Gulf confidence in U.S. protection deeply shaken, Gulf sources, diplomats and analysts say.
Iran remains a formidable and undefeated force capable of threatening Gulf Arab states and global energy flows, they say, while the United States has again revealed the limits of military power against a resilient adversary.
For Washington, the deal offers an exit from a costly confrontation that failed to deliver its most ambitious objectives…
Tough Questions About the Iran War — Answered | AJC
Tough Questions About the Iran War — Answered | AJC
***Updated as of March 16, 2026 ***
For decades, the Iranian regime has destabilized the Middle East, targeting Americans, Israelis, Arabs, and even its own people—while backing terror proxies, advancing a nuclear program in defiance of international commitments, and fueling a global network of terrorism. Now, open conflict has forced urgent questions to the forefront.
What is the goal of this operation? Was Iran truly nearing a nuclear weapons threshold? Could this escalate beyond the region? And what does it mean for U.S. allies and global security?
Below are answers to these questions based onexpert analysis from AJC’s Center for a New Middle East. Go deeper by reading ourThe Iran Strikes, Explained.
The United States and Israel have stated that this operation is focused on four main issues:
Destroying the regime's deadly ballistic missiles and razing their missile industry to the ground.
Annihilating the Iranian Navy.
Ensuring that Iranian-backed terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the world.
Ensuring that the Iranian regime can never obtain a nuclear weapon.
Notably, regime change was not identified by the U…
Four Ways the Iran War Could End - The Atlantic
Four Ways the Iran War Could End - The Atlantic
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P
resident Trump clearly
wants out—and soon.
The war that the United States and Israel started with Iran delayed what Trump sees as a landmark visit to China, which he postponed until mid-May, suggesting that he thinks he will be free to travel by then. He said in a Cabinet meeting that most of Iran’s military capabilities have been destroyed, implying a high degree of success. And, having twice left the negotiating table with the regime in the past year, he now appears keen to make a deal of some sort that will allow U.S. and Israeli forces to withdraw and, he presumably hopes, reopen the Strait of Hormuz so that the stock market can rise and oil prices can fall.
But wars rarely, if ever, wrap up neatly, or perfectly solve the problems they aimed to address. Sometimes they lead to new problems. And how they end is always hard to predict. Four weeks into World War II, no one could have anticipated how it would end. By the first month of the 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban-led government was collapsing. Less than a month after the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, Saddam Hussein’s regime fell, …
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?
Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?
A man reads a newspaper in Tehran on June 18, 2026. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)
The United States and Israel may have unwittingly revived the Islamic Republic’s “zombie regime.”
On this week’s episode ofCarnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller spoke with Brookings Institution’sSuzanne Maloneyand Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour about where the Iran war stands and what happens after a deal is signed.
Portions of theirconversation, which have been edited and condensed for clarity, are below.
Aaron David Miller:How did the Iranians read [Operation Epic Fury]?
Karim Sadjadpour:This war has been an existential war for the Islamic Republic. It’s a ten-out-of-ten crisis, and they threw everything they could back at it. They recognized that the country’s top leadership could get assassinated—which is exactly what happened—so they already had in place a decentralized approach, in which the thirty-one provinces in the country each would have a Revolutionary Guard outpost. It would essentially be like thirty-one heads of an octopus. They didn’t need to have a central commander in Tehran giving them orders. They knew what the plan was: close dow…
The Iran War Has Remade the Gulf - Foreign Policy
The Iran War Has Remade the Gulf - Foreign Policy
Analysis
The Iran War Has Remade the Gulf
The region knows that Iran won the war—and is hedging its bets as a result.
By
Amir Handjani
, a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Foreign workers look at a tall plume of black smoke ascends following an explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone on March 3, 2026.
Foreign workers look at a tall plume of black smoke ascends following an explosion in the Fujairah industrial zone on March 3, 2026.
Fadel SENNA / AFP
Iran
Middle East and North Africa
May 26, 2026, 4:16 PM
The guns have not yet fallen silent over the Persian Gulf, but the governments of the Gulf Cooperation Council are already doing what they have always done in moments of upheaval: calculating, hedging, and preparing for a world that looks nothing like the one that existed before. The Iran war has been the most disorienting event in the region since the 1979 revolution. It will produce an equally consequential rearrangement of the region’s political geometry. The GCC states will not lurch toward any single power or alignment. They will do what small states with large sovereign wealth funds and acute…
How Iran gained the strategic upper hand in the war with the US and Israel
How Iran gained the strategic upper hand in the war with the US and Israel
Tehran: Iranians celebrate news of the ‘peace deal’ with the US and Israel.
ZUMA Press, Inc.
After three months of war with two of the world’s most technologically and militarily advanced countries, Iran has proved far more resilient than anticipated. Indeed, strategically at least, Tehran appears to now have the upper hand in the conflict. How has this situation come about?
When the United States joined Israel to launch the
latest war with Iran
in late February 2026, the prognosis did not look good for the regime in Tehran.
In attacking Iran, the US and Israel set up a highly asymmetric conflict. It pitted the Islamic Republic up against two nuclear-armed adversaries who boast some of the most advanced military capabilities on the planet. And the scale of the US and Israeli intervention was far larger than anything Iran has experienced in decades.
Over the course of several weeks, Iran was pounded relentlessly with the full force of US and Israeli air and missile power. Precision strikes and targeted assassinations
removed key members
of Iran’s political and military leadership – including the supreme lead…
Eight Experts on What You're Not Being Told about the War in Iran
Eight Experts on What You're Not Being Told about the War in Iran
Smoke rises on the skyline in Tehran, Iran, February 28, 2026. (AP Photo)
W
ar reporting has
its value. It tells us what was hit and by whom, how the strikes played out, the tactical gains and setbacks. But that is only the first draft of events. The situation in Iran demands more than a battlefield ledger. The harder questions go deeper. Which assumptions—about deterrence, regime durability, regional alliances, or constraints of law—might be wrong?
Over the past couple days, The Walrus has spoken with Middle East and foreign policy experts about where they see the greatest risks of escalation. What alarms them most looking ahead? What is missing from the current coverage? What absolutely needs to be part of the public debate right now?
Their responses follow, edited for length and clarity.
Pierre Pahlavi
Thomas Juneau
Vladyslav Lanovoy
Greg Fyffe
Wesley Wark
Janice Gross Stein
Jabeur Fathally
Maral Karimi
“Gulf states, already uneasy, have been forced into a strategic dilemma.”
Pierre Pahlavi
Full Professor, Chair of the Department of Security and International Affairs, and Deputy Director in the Department of Defe…
Seven Lessons Of The Iran War - Hoover Institution
Seven Lessons Of The Iran War - Hoover Institution
One figure haunts the Iran war debate like a ghost. On May 5, on Stephen Colbert’s late-night show, Barack Obama contrasted his diplomatic approach to Iran with Donald Trump’s reliance on military pressure. His nuclear deal, he argued, prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon without war.
One figure haunts the Iran war debate like a ghost. On May 5, on Stephen Colbert’s late-night show, Barack Obama contrasted his diplomatic approach to Iran with Donald Trump’s reliance on military pressure. His nuclear deal, he argued, prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon without war. “We pulled it off without firing a missile,” he said. “We got 97% of their enriched uranium out... There’s no dispute that it worked...and we didn’t have to kill a whole bunch of people or shut down the Strait of Hormuz.”
Obama was not simply protecting his record. He was defending the model that still governs Democratic thinking about Iran. Former Obama officials, many of whom returned under Joe Biden, now argue across television, radio, and podcasts that diplomacy remains the superior framework and that Trump’s reliance on military power is reckl…
Iran says it will 'not hesitate' to defend itself after latest clashes
Iran says it will 'not hesitate' to defend itself after latest clashes
Generated by AI (8 hours ago)
Recent developments surrounding Iran have been capturing global attention. A significant push for renewed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has been met with challenges, with talks hitting early obstacles despite both nations agreeing to resume discussions on Iran's nuclear program. This has occurred alongside other diplomatic maneuvers in the region, such as a recently brokered ceasefire agreement involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, facilitated by U.S. and Qatari mediators.
In the political sphere, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has openly expressed his displeasure with the new U.S.-Iran agreement, despite allowing it to proceed, signaling internal discord over diplomatic engagements with the U.S. This agreement has also attracted criticism from the Republican Party in the U.S., indicating a rare moment of dissent against Donald Trump from within his own party. Many Republicans are wary of the potential consequences of the deal, which remains vague and incomplete, contributing to market volatility and criticisms about who benefits economically.
The I…
US, IAEA to Help Iran Destroy Enriched Uranium Stockpile Under New Deal ...
US, IAEA to Help Iran Destroy Enriched Uranium Stockpile Under New Deal ...
IAEA to oversee uranium destruction as Hormuz reopens under US–Iran accord
Highlights
Myanmar's inflation spiked to nearly 25 percent as shocks from the Middle East conflict compounded the effects of the country's civil war, the World Bank said Tuesday.
The Bank also slashed its growth forecast for the financial year that started in April, citing "a less favorable external environment".
Myanmar has been mired in civil war since the military snatched power in a 2021 coup, plunging it into a half-decade of instability and a backslide into poverty for many of its more than 50 million citizens.
The country also imports 90 percent of its fuel oil, according to official figures, leaving it highly exposed to closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran war started on February 28.
Gold rose more than 2% on Monday after US and Iran officials said they had reached an initial agreement to end their war.
By 0536 GMT the spot gold price had risen 2.5%, to $4,323.29 an ounce, its highest since June 9, and extended gains for a 3rd straight session. US Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 2.5% at $4,343.80.
…
Who Would Win — the United States vs Iran? A 360° analysis of ...
Who Would Win — the United States vs Iran? A 360° analysis of ...
Headlines in late February–early March 2026 have made the unthinkable immediate: large-scale U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, reports that Iran’s supreme leader has been killed, and a fast-spreading regional confrontation. Readers keep asking the blunt question:
“Who would win if the United States and Iran went to war?”
The honest answer is: there is no single, simple “winner.” What follows is a long-form, source-backed look at the question — the militaries, the asymmetric tools each side will bring, political and economic realities, likely scenarios, and how “victory” should be defined. I draw on reporting from major newspapers, official statements and updates from reputable think-tanks and war analysts to ground the assessment. United States vs Iran (and the recent death of ali khamenei), are the real-world backdrop to this analysis.
Representative image
,
Source CNN
Executive summary — short answer
Conventional military balance:
The United States enjoys overwhelming conventional superiority (air power, navy, precision strike, logistics, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and nuclear forces). In a short, con…
What Good Is a Nuclear Threshold Capability? Lessons from Iran's ...
What Good Is a Nuclear Threshold Capability? Lessons from Iran's ...
STRATEGIST
PDF coming soon
Vol 9, Iss 3
Summer 2026
| 78–102
Deterrence
|
Iran
|
Nonproliferation
|
Nuclear Strategy
MENA
-
The slow-boil conflict in the Middle East that followed Hamas’s attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, differed from past wars in the region in several important ways. Among other factors, it was the first regional conflagration in which Iran, a direct participant in the conflict, was a nuclear threshold state: Tehran could produce a bomb in relatively short order following a decision to do so.
1
In theory, that ability could confer strategic benefits. Iran’s adversaries knew Tehran could quickly cross the proverbial nuclear threshold, and had to factor that risk into their policy deliberations. Indeed, Iran likely developed its nuclear program in part to have a nuclear weapons option—a proliferation strategy known as hedging. But that approach also comes with risks. Because Iran did not yet possess a bomb, its nuclear program was vulnerable to disruption; the international community could impose costs on Iran, including a military strike, to try and prevent its nuclear capabilities from …
Iran expert says Trump's 'war of choice' has morphed into a 'war of ...
Iran expert says Trump's 'war of choice' has morphed into a 'war of ...
A man stands in a damaged residence in Tehran on March 14.
(Majid Saeedi | Getty Images Europe)
Three weeks into the
U.S. and Israel's war with Iran
, it remains unclear how or when the conflict might end. When asked by a reporter on Sunday if he was ready to declare victory,
President Trump
responded
, "no, I don't want to do that. There's no reason to."
Karim Sadjadpour
, a senior fellow at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
, says the president seems to have underestimated Iran's response to the war. Sadjadpour notes that Iran telegraphed from the beginning that it planned to regionalize the conflict. But, he says, "President Trump said that that took him by surprise when Iran started
to attack
the Persian Gulf countries or close down the Strait of Hormuz."
"I don't think President Trump,
in his own words frankly
, understood what he was getting into," he adds.
What to know about Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader
The second son of the late supreme leader keeps a low profile. But he's long been viewed as wielding his power behind the scenes, from crushing dissent to influencing presiden…
Jordan says sirens sounded by technical malfunction
Jordan says sirens sounded by technical malfunction
Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor of Iran's hardline Kayhan newspaper, questioned why senior officials had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, arguing Tehran was relinquishing one of its strongest levers against its adversaries without securing meaningful compensation.
Writing in Kayhan, Shariatmadari asked Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi why they would abandon a "decisive" tool that had brought enemies close to economic suffocation.
He dismissed proposals to charge passing vessels service fees, arguing they paled in comparison to the loss of senior military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians, as well as the extensive damage inflicted on Iran.
"Are we now supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and settle for collecting service fees from passing ships?" he wrote, warning that doing so would ease pressure on Iran's adversaries and pave the way for future attacks.
In an interview with Iran International, Charles W. Dunne, a non‑resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC and an adjunct lecturer at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Aff…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
PAKISTAN reduced relations UNITED STATES in Geneva, Genè, Switzerland
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Trump underestimated Iran's resilience. Now there is only one way out ...
Trump underestimated Iran's resilience. Now there is only one way out ...
A member of the Iranian security forces stands guard next to a banner honouring former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, on March 30.
Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA
For all their claims of military
success
in their war with Iran, the United States and Israel have yet to clearly define their
rationale for starting the conflict
, their
goals
and their exit strategy.
With the Iranian regime having mounted a robust response, the Middle East has been plunged into an unnecessary confrontation with no end in sight.
When US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started this war a month ago, they didn’t have a clear understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime and its defensive capability.
They didn’t expect Tehran to counter their offensives with an unprecedented level of preparedness, striking US bases across the Persian Gulf and hitting Israel hard.
Nor did they anticipate Tehran would
close the Strait of Hormuz
, partially or fully, to cause a shortage of oil and gas with severe consequences for the global economy.
Driven by an
embrace of military power
, they acte…
Estimating the True Cost of War with Iran | GovFacts
Estimating the True Cost of War with Iran | GovFacts
Last updated: Dec 05, 2025 5:12 AM
GovFacts
Published: June 23, 2025
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Last updated 7 months ago. Our resources are updated regularly but please keep in mind that links, programs, policies, and contact information do change.
Contents
The World’s Most Important Waterway
Price Shock at the Pump
Beyond Oil: Global Economic Ripples
Industry-Specific Impacts
Cyber Warfare and Digital Infrastructure
Emerging Markets and Developing Countries
The Price of Power: America’s Military Costs
Economic Warfare: Sanctions and Their Limits
The Human and Reconstruction Bill
In mid-2025, years of tension between America and Iran erupted into
direct military conflict
. The crisis began on June 13 when Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Eight days later, the United States joined the fight, bombing Iran’s key nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan with massive 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
President Trump
says America “does not seek war” with Iran. But he’s also warned that any Iranian retaliation will trigger “far greater” attacks. The world economy now hangs in the balance, wai…
Who Won the Iran War? 10 Experts Explain - Newsweek
Who Won the Iran War? 10 Experts Explain - Newsweek
By
Ellie Cook
and
Jesus Mesa
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President Donald Trump has touted his war-ending deal with Iran as a "great agreement." Many have questioned whether the price of the nearly four-month war in the Middle East was too high and whether the U.S. has really come out on top.
The U.S. laid out several goals when it joined Israel with strikes against Iran on February 28. It succeeded in beating down Iran's conventional military power. But it did not fully achieve the White House's other stated objectives: eliminating the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, regime change, dismantling Tehran's support for proxy groups and wiping out its ballistic missile capacity.
With America's relations with key allies like Israel frayed, 13 U.S. service members killed, billions of dollars spent and weapons stockpiles drawn down, the picture is complicated.
Read More
on
World
In war there are always
different interpretations of the outcome
.
Newsweek
asked 10 experts which side, ultimately,…
The War with Iran from the Perspective of the Gulf States | INSS
The War with Iran from the Perspective of the Gulf States | INSS
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The War with Iran from the Perspective of the Gulf States
The War with Iran from the Perspective of the Gulf States
How has the war in Iran reshaped the security and strategic considerations of the Gulf states?
INSS Insight No. 2128, April 16, 2026
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Yoel Guzansky
Ron Tira
The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel has not, so far, improved the strategic position of the Gulf states; in fact, it may have even worsened it. Despite the damage Iran has sustained, the regime has demonstrated resilience while preserving key levers of pressure—namely, the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and to strike “bypass” pipelines and land-based critical infrastructure in the Gulf states. At the same time, in the eyes of the Gulf states, the war has sharpened the limitations of the US security guarantee. As a result, and given the absence of optimal alternatives, they are likely to continue a hedging strategy: maintaining reliance on the United States, deepening military self-reliant buildup (especially missile and UAV defense), alongs…
The art of the bail: Iran got what it wanted. Did the U.S.? Everyone's is ...
The art of the bail: Iran got what it wanted. Did the U.S.? Everyone's is ...
Good morning. On
Fortune’s
radar today:
Did Iran win the war? Some people think so.
Markets: It’s a mixed bag, tbh.
Regime change at the Fed—
what to watch for
.
Global military spending is on the rise.
AI is changing what students choose to major in.
Gen-Z’s addiction to “
slop bowls
.”
ONE BIG THING
Iran got what it wanted. Now what?
President Trump’s “memorandum of understanding” with Iran has still not been published. The White House spent the last 24 hours defending its peace deal against criticisms that, in large part, it gives Iran what Iran wants: A withdrawal of American forces from the region, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the ability to charge ships passing through, a $300 billion investment fund, and the continuation of the regime in Tehran. The FT’s headline says it all:
‘Humiliation’: Donald Trump battles claims his Iran deal is worse than Obama’s
.
Recommended Video
Iran has already moved three of its own ships out of the Strait this week, carrying 5 million barrels of oil,
CNBC reports
. Most other shipping remains frozen.
The MOU
does
provide for talks over Iran’s nuclear program. Vic…
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States' Leverage, War, and the ...
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States' Leverage, War, and the ...
Opinion
The Illusion of American Protection: Gulf States’ Leverage, War, and the Case for Collective Security
How the war on Iran exposed the limits of U.S. protection and forced Gulf states to rethink their security strategy.
By:
Mohammad Yaghi
/
29 April, 2026
The flags represents the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional and economic union of various Gulf states.
hamzehsh12/iStock
By: Mohammad Yaghi
Political scientist specializing in Middle East politics.
There is a stark contradiction between the Arab Gulf states’ systemic importance to the global economy and Washington’s recurring disregard for their strategic interests.
The Arab Gulf States made every possible effort to
prevent
the United States from attacking Iran, knowing in advance that they would be among the biggest losers from such a war. Rather than listening to them, Washington appears to have prioritised Israel’s interests. As Kamala Harris, the former U.S. vice-president,
stated
at a Michigan Democratic Women’s Caucus event in Detroit, Trump “entered a war — got pulled into it by Bibi Netanyahu… a war that the American people d…
Iran's Missile Firepower Has Almost Run Out - JINSA
Iran's Missile Firepower Has Almost Run Out - JINSA
Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, which it spent decades building into the core of its military power, fell apart in only a few days of U.S. and Israeli strikes. U.S. Operation Epic Fury and Israeli Operation Roaring Lion reduced Iran’s total daily ballistic missile fire roughly 3 times faster than in June 2025. Iranian ballistic missile launches have fallen 90 percent since the start of the current war, including an 88 percent drop against Israel, compared to an 82 percent decrease over the first five days of Operation Rising Lion. Iran fired more missiles during the first day of Operation Rising Lion than it did during the first five days of the current war combined.During the12-Day War, Iran initially relied on launching large-scale missile barrages as a core element of its offensive strategy. However, as the conflict progressed and launcher losses increased, Iran shifted from these massed attacks to more limited strikes. This shift has become even more pronounced in the current war. With U.S. and Israeli forces rapidly destroying roughly 75 percent of Iran’s launch capacity, the regime can no longer conduct sustained, large-v…
Peripheral Vascular Disease Explained: Symptoms, Risks ...
Peripheral Vascular Disease Explained: Symptoms, Risks ...
Is the Iran-United States peace deal staring at a collapse? Tehran is furious after Israel carried out airstrikes targeting what it claimed to be Hezbollah-linked infrastructure in Beirut's Dahiyeh district. The strikes prompted a sharp response from Iran, which warned that the attack would "not go unanswered" and accused the United States of failing to restrain Israel at a critical moment in ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iranian Parliament Speaker and senior negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf said the Beirut strike showed that Washington either lacked the will or the ability to fulfill its commitments. He warned that continued Israeli actions could jeopardize the future of diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington. Meanwhile, senior IRGC official Major General Yadollah Javani declared that Iran's armed forces are prepared to respond to any threat and issued strong warnings regarding security in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
A major diplomatic clash has erupted between Russia and the United Kingdom after the British forces authorities detained a sanctioned tanker believed to be linked to Russia's so-called shad…
Trump's Shifting Objectives in Iran and How the War Could End | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Trump's Shifting Objectives in Iran and How the War Could End | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
With distrust deepening and the Iranian regime still in place, can the United States and Iran reach a deal?
Since joining Israel in the February 28 attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump has given several reasons for the United States’ continued military engagement in the region. His mixed messages on US goals have complicated the pursuit of a resolution to the military conflict,which continues to be deeply unpopular among Americans. On Wednesday, Trump said that there was “no time frame” for ending the war, stressing that his administration wants a “good deal for the American people.” But what does a “good deal” look like today?
Council Senior Fellow and Vice President of Research for Security and Defense Ariane Tabatabai spoke with the Council’s Christina Colón about how much progress the Trump administration has made toward achieving its objectives, the current state of the Iranian regime, and how the war with Iran is likely to end.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Trump administration has outlined several goals for the Iran war. What are the curren…
Iran's Khamenei adviser warns against optimism in US talks, says ...
Iran's Khamenei adviser warns against optimism in US talks, says ...
Iran’s Khamenei adviser warns against optimism in US talks, says America negotiating from desperation
Mohsen Rezaei says Washington must release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets before trust can be built, while a 60-day negotiation clock ticks down
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by
Editorial Team
Jun. 21, 2026
Mohsen Rezaei, a senior military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is throwing cold water on any notion that US-Iran talks are headed toward a breakthrough. His message is blunt: the United States came to the table not from a position of strength, but because years of trying to force Iran’s surrender didn’t work.
The talks, anchored by a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026, were supposed to kick off a productive 60-day negotiation window. Instead, they’re already stalled, with $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets sitting at the center of the impasse.
What Rezaei is actually saying
In a CNN interview on June 5, 2026, Rezaei laid out his case plainly. The US needs to release those frozen assets as a trust-building gesture before meaningful progress can happen. Without that s…
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
RT.com17 Jun 2026, 04:49 GMT+10
Washingtons failed gamble shows how far the global balance of power has moved
What a difference a year makes! Last June, in the wake of the first joint Israeli-US attack on Iran, a joke was making the rounds in the Middle East. It described a bartender welcoming an American, an Israeli, and an Iranian into his bar, offering them beers and saying: "Congratulations, gentlemen; you have all won." Not so this time. There's no question that there is only one winner in the second war against Iran: Iran. There are also multiple losers, including America and Israel.
Make no mistake. A truce doesn't equal peace. Key issues are left for future talks, and there is no certainty that these will yield results, or that any agreements will hold. What we are dealing with here and now is not just another Middle East conflict. Rather, this is part of an ongoing struggle in which the global hegemon seeks to reverse the trends reshaping the global order. The Middle East is a theater in what amounts to a world war, alongside Eastern Europe, where the West is seeking to defeat Russia, and East Asia, where the US and its allies are trying to contain China.
This fight wi…
What the Iran War Reveals About the Limits of US Power
What the Iran War Reveals About the Limits of US Power
What the Iran War Reveals About the Limits of US Power
By
Alexander Clackson
|
Opinion
-
March 24, 2026
Wars often reshape perceptions of power as much as they change realities on the battlefield. The conflict now unfolding around Iran may prove to be such a moment for the United States. Washington and its allies retain overwhelming military superiority. Yet the trajectory of the war reveals constraints on how effectively that power can be translated into stable strategic outcomes.
This matters because global influence rests not only on capabilities, but also on credibility, coalition management, and the ability to shape escalation dynamics. On each of these fronts, the conflict is offering lessons – not only for Washington, but for its competitors.
The first lesson is that overwhelming military superiority does not guarantee strategic control
. The United States possesses the most advanced military capabilities in the world, from precision strike systems to unmatched naval power. Yet Iran has demonstrated how a weaker state can impose meaningful costs through asymmetric means.
Unable to compete conventionally, Tehran has
reli…
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
ANI16 Jun 2026, 06:00 GMT+10
Washington DC [US], June 16 (ANI): Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum (MEF), Michael Rubin, has warned that the newly announced US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) could 'guarantee another round of conflict' in West Asia, while questioning the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking to ANI, Rubin sharply criticised the framework of the agreement unveiled by US President Donald Trump, arguing that it risks empowering Iran without resolving the fundamental security concerns that have driven regional tensions for years.
'Iran is buying time again. I never thought that Donald Trump could actually make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill. The fact of the matter is, what Donald Trump now presents is a deal which almost certainly guarantees another round of conflict in the Middle East,' Rubin said.
His remarks come after senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, establishing a framework for future engagement. According to the officials, sanctions relief under the ag…
Interventionist, irresponsible, provocative: Iran slams US-GCC ...
Interventionist, irresponsible, provocative: Iran slams US-GCC ...
Tehran [Iran], June 26 (ANI): Moments after the United States and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers jointly called for curbing Tehran's nuclear programme, Iran on Friday slammed the two sides, describing the remarks as "interventionist, irresponsible and provocative".
In a statement released by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and carried by state media Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Tehran warned against what it called continued "belligerent and interventionist behaviours" in the region.
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran considered the positions contained in the joint statement of the US Secretary of State and the Foreign Ministers of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council - dated June 25, 2026 - as interventionist, irresponsible and provocative and warned against the continuation of belligerent and interventionist behaviours in the region," the statement read, as quoted by IRIB.
The Iranian reaction came after the US-GCC ministerial meeting held in Manama on June 25, co-chaired by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdul…
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace - Foreign Affairs
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace - Foreign Affairs
Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand
Nate Swanson
June 18, 2026
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 2026
Reuters
NATE SWANSON
is a Resident Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Atlantic Council. He served as Director for Iran at the National Security Council from 2022 to 2025. In the spring and summer of 2025, he served on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team.
More by Nate Swanson
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Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace
Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand
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Obama says U.S. is worse off after war with Iran
Obama says U.S. is worse off after war with Iran
Politics
Obama says U.S. is worse off after war with Iran
Obama says the Iran war left the U.S. “worse off” after billions spent, as retaliation spread across Israel and Gulf countries and the UN warned of wider ruin.
Sarah Mitchell
June 19, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET
2 min read
Obama says U.S. is worse off after war with Iran
Barack Obama’s sharp assessment cuts to the question voters are likely to ask first: what, exactly, did the war with Iran accomplish? Donald Trump said the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran on February 28, 2026, in a campaign later named Operation Epic Fury, with the White House saying the goal was to eliminate an imminent nuclear threat, destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, degrade proxy terror networks, and cripple naval forces.
Obama said the United States seemed to have either returned to the status quo or was “worse off” than before the war began. He said the country had “fought a war,” spent “billions and billions of dollars,” and put “enormous strain” on the military, a blunt accounting that now hangs over the administration’s case for the operation.
The immediate strategic picture is mor…
Iran's Missile and Drone Program: Disrupting U.S. Aerial Hegemony
Iran's Missile and Drone Program: Disrupting U.S. Aerial Hegemony
Stay updated and subscribe to our newsletters
Claiming the Skies: Iran views its missile and drone technology as a potent alternative to its aging air force, allowing it to project power well beyond its borders.
Bolstering Iran’s Deterrence Capacities: Missiles and drones are also part of Iran’s deterrence strategy, but their export to Russia and to various armed groups, backed by Tehran, are perceived as a source of regional instability.
Reigniting Anti-Americanism: President Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in the 2021 presidential elections consolidated political power in the hands of Iran’s conservative faction. This shift reignited anti-U.S. rhetoric in Iranian foreign policy.
ANewWorldOrder:Tehran seesdrone and missile technologyasameans tochallengeU.S.hegemonyin the Middle East andbring aboutaworld orderthat no longer serves the interestsof asinglesuperpower.
For decades, Iran has pursued a revisionist foreign policy premised on rejecting the U.S. led international order. Iranian foreign policy discourse has been underpinned by calls for a just system and opposition to the status quo. Recent global and regional e…
US-Israel Iran War Goals: Strategic Divergence Explained | 2026 ...
US-Israel Iran War Goals: Strategic Divergence Explained | 2026 ...
US-Israel Iran War Goals: Strategic Divergence Explained | 2026 Conflict Analysis
The widening gap between American and Israeli objectives in the ongoing Iran war has become increasingly apparent as the conflict enters its third week in March 2026, with defense experts warning that these diverging goals are beginning to undermine the military campaign's effectiveness and create strategic vulnerabilities for both allies.
What is the US-Israel Iran War Goals Divergence?
The strategic divergence refers to the fundamental differences between American and Israeli objectives in their joint military campaign against Iran. While both nations share overlapping tactical goals of degrading Iran's military capabilities, their long-term strategic objectives have become increasingly misaligned, creating friction in what was initially presented as a unified front against the Iranian regime.
The Core Differences in War Objectives
According to defense expert Peter Wijninga of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, the divergence centers on fundamentally different endgames.
'Israel wants regime change - the complete removal of the…
A Bad Iran Deal and the Price of Credibility - 19FortyFive
A Bad Iran Deal and the Price of Credibility - 19FortyFive
Israel's Merkava IV tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Iran Deal Won’t Buy America Security. It Will Cost It:
Proponents of the emerging nuclear agreement with Iran have settled on a convenient argument: the American-Israeli alliance functions as long as interests diverge, and we have reached that point. Washington, they insist, is more secure with this deal than without it.
It is a seductive argument. It is also wrong.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 134th Fighter Squadron, Burlington Air National Guard Base, Burlington, Vermont is in pre-contact over the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility before receiving fuel from a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 465th Air Refueling Squadron, Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma during exercise Cope North 2025, Feb. 7, 2025. The KC-135 provides the core aerial refueling capability for the U.S. Air Force and has performed this role for over 50 years. It provides aerial refueling to the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps and allied nation aircraft during CN25 to support exercise operations. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sg…
Iran's Postwar Settlement: Sanctions Relief, Private-Sector Reopening ...
Iran's Postwar Settlement: Sanctions Relief, Private-Sector Reopening ...
Iran’s Postwar Settlement: Sanctions Relief, Private-Sector Reopening, and the Political Economy of Regime Survival
Published
May 3, 2026 15:51
The Economy Research Editorial
1,2
1
The Economy Research, 71 Lower Baggot Street, Dublin 2, Co. Dublin, D02 P593, Ireland
2
Swiss Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Chaltenbodenstrasse 26, 8834 Schindellegi, Schwyz, Switzerland
Abstract
This article argues that the real U.S.-Iran postwar negotiating issue is not whether a ceasefire holds formally but rather who ultimately controls economic reopening in its aftermath. Whereas common scenario analysis treats Gulf security, nuclear verification, sanctions relief, and access through Hormuz as separate strategic variables, they ultimately matter most within the context of Iran's political economy. Whereas some sanctions relief might over time delegitimize the regime by restoring links between private business and Western and Gulf economies, bypassing Chinese channels for oil revenue, and circumscribing the rent-seeking power of sanctions-evading enterprises, the real outcome of a face-saving accord on nuclear terms wi…
Ten Big Questions the US Airstrikes on Iran Leave Unanswered
Ten Big Questions the US Airstrikes on Iran Leave Unanswered
Only one thing is clear about the events of the past week. We are now living in an age of chaos, argues the author and former diplomat Arthur Snell
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President Trump announced that the Iranian nuclear programme had been “obliterated”. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that it had been “devastated”. But the evidence suggests otherwise. Just two days after America’s strikes, Israeli planes were pounding the Fordo nuclear site, buried under an Iranian mountain, suggesting that the devastation was not complete. The Iranians had several days of knowing that the US was considering using bunker busters, giving it time to move key personnel and possibly equipment.
Iran has around 400 kilograms of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), the fuel it needs to make a nuclear bomb – although it would need to enrich it further to get it to the required level. It seems clear that neither Israel nor the United States knows where this fuel is. It’s worth noting that before the Israeli and US strikes the intelligence assessment coming out of Washington had Iran …
Inter-Arab Rivalry and Regional Hierarchy in the Post-Liberal Middle ...
Inter-Arab Rivalry and Regional Hierarchy in the Post-Liberal Middle ...
Israel’s Twelve-Day War (June 2025) against Iran, backed by the United States, significantly weakened Tehran’s strategic capabilities and reshaped regional dynamics. Rather than accelerating formal Saudi-Israeli normalization, it produced a post–liberalMiddle East in which Saudi Arabia treats Israel as a covert partner and constrained outsider while vying for regional primacy. (Shutterstock/Asset ID: 2096850640)
The Puzzle: Why Iran’s Collapse Has Not Produced More Arab-Israeli Normalization
The Twelve-Day War of June 2025 delivered the most devastating blow to Iranian strategic power in the Islamic Republic’s history. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, executed five waves of airstrikes involving over two hundred aircraft against Iranian nuclear facilities, military installations, and leadership targets.1Mossad operatives and commando units sabotaged air defense systems while car bombs detonated across Tehran, killing more than a dozen senior nuclear scientists.2The campaign decapitated the IRGC’s intelligence leadership, destroyed the Natanz enrichment facility, and eliminated approximate…
The war on Iran is Washington's most unpopular war in history among the ...
The war on Iran is Washington's most unpopular war in history among the ...
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Original article
by
Devin B. Martinez
republished from
peoples dispatch
under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA) license.
Rally against the war on Iran in Los Angeles. Photo: PSL LA
As the US-Israeli war on Iran reaches its third week, polls, protests, and congressional pushback suggest opposition in the United States is deepening to historic levels.
Over 1,400 people have been killed and 18,000 injured in Iran
since the start of the US-Israeli war against the country on February 28. Major civilian casualties have been reported, including
160 school girls killed
in an attack on their elementary school. As the conflict reaches its third week, the vast majority of people in the US are flatly rejecting another war launched in their name.
According to a recent
Ipsos
poll,
only 27% of the US public supports the attacks on Iran
. Unlike previous conflicts, this aggression is unfolding amid what appears to be the deepest and most immediate opposition to a US war in modern history. The US war on Iran is reportedly even
less popular than the Vietnam War
was in its final years.
…
Corroboration
No verdict, no pronouncement. The model extracts atomic factual claims with verbatim quotes; every quote is validated against the source text and corroboration is computed by counting how many editorially-opposed blocs assert each fact. 2 fabricated/unverifiable quotes were rejected by the cite-or-die gate.
The spine · 1 fact corroborated across ≥2 opposed blocs
3×cross-perspective · 2The United States and Iran have signed a 14‑point agreement / memorandum of understanding, the first such agreement signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
mideast_indotherpakistan
almonitor“The U.S.-Iran agreement — the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution —”
dawn“The <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/2009004">14-point agreement</a> between Washington and Tehran appears more like a temporary stabilisation mechanism”
gdelt“senior US administration officials announced that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance had signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran”
Single-source · 10 — reported by one bloc only (uncorroborated)
Donald Trump said, “There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.”
dawn
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, “Iran is actually stronger now relative to their position in the Middle East than they were prior to this war.”
dawn
Michael Rubin warned that the US‑Iran memorandum of understanding could guarantee another round of conflict in West Asia.
gdelt
Michael Rubin questioned the credibility of Pakistan as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
gdelt
An Israeli newspaper described the US‑Iran deal as a “catastrophic capitulation.”
france24
Trump sees the United States as the big winner in the US‑Iran deal.
france24
The press said Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz shows that it has set a new status quo.
france24
Adversaries across the Middle East, including Israel, Gulf states, and Lebanese factions, view the US‑Iran agreement as potentially making Iran more secure, more legitimate, and more influential.
almonitor
Iran has emerged as a regional superpower, having defeated the US‑Israeli war machine twice.
presstv
The effort to manage the Iran‑Saudi rivalry is under China’s auspices.
agsi.org
Framing · 3 — loaded language surfaced (spin shown, not adopted)
france24
“catastrophic capitulation”
→ loaded description of the deal
france24
“big winner”
→ subjective appraisal of the United States
presstv
“regional superpower”
→ value‑laden status label for Iran
Entities
Iranplace
CNNorg
THE U.S.org
Atlanticplace
World Newsorg
Gulf and Arab statesorg
Hindustan Timesorg
Iranian regimeorg
gulf statesplace
INSSorg
smallwarsjournalorg