Iran's theocratic rulers have seen off a U.S. military campaign, and Iran's powerful hardliners feel strengthened by enduring it. They are pushing the leadership to take a tough stance in upcoming talks with the U.S. and to prioritize rearming. According to reports, three Iranian insiders told Reuters that the political establishment now views negotiations with the U.S. as the only way to avoid further escalation and existential peril. A fragile ceasefire ended a 12-day war in June that began with Israeli air strikes, followed by U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear installations. Both sides declared victory in the conflict. Strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets included killings of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and nuclear scientists. The war exposed the military vulnerabilities of Iran and had a strong psychological impact on Iran's leadership.

Ordinary Iranians are suffering and dissatisfied, according to one report, and are desperate for any peace dividend or financial relief to be used in raising living standards and offering better prospects after a destructive war that has followed years of painful sanctions. Hardliners and ordinary citizens have opposing priorities and low tolerance for delay. The Iranian regime unleashed an unprecedented wave of state violence to suppress nationwide protests in January, killing thousands of demonstrators. The Islamic Republic regime has perpetrated violence against U.S. personnel and interests, partners, and allies across the region, and has faced repeated public uprisings that have only been suppressed by violent mass repression. Washington and Tehran have struck a two-week ceasefire deal. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is eighty-six years old and has been Iran’s supreme leader for nearly thirty-seven years. His ouster, death, or incapacitation will precipitate only the second leadership change in Iran since the regime’s establishment nearly fifty years ago. There is a risk of new large-scale protests.