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Russia’s Economy in ‘Technical Stagnation’: Sberbank ... - KyivPost In brief:Russia’s key state-owned bank CEO said Russia’s economy “technically stagnated” in July-August, pointing to the central bank’s elevated key rate as the main constraint. The Russian economy slipped into “technical stagnation” in the second quarter of 2025, moving to zero growth in July and August, Russiaʼs Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok on Sep. 4. Russia’s Sberbank is a Russian major state-owned bank and financial services company headquartered in Moscow. Follow our coverage of the war on the@Kyivpost_official. Gref blames the Russian Central Bank’s 18% key rate for slowing down the economy. It reached its peak in October 2025, when the Central Bank raised it to 21% to fight increasing inflation. Since June it has beenlowering, but still remains “one of the highest in the world,” Gref said. Russia’s annual inflation fell for the fourth month in a row to 8.8% in July 2025, the lowest since October last year, down from 9.4% in June, Russian Central Bank’sdatashows. Sberbank expects the key rate to stand near 14% by year-end, but Gref argued that real re…

Sberbank chief Gref says Russian economy ‘cannot survive long’ under current key interest rate <p>Sberbank chief Herman Gref is calling on Russia’s central bank to cut the key interest rate, warning that the Russian economy “cannot survive long” under current conditions.<p>

Russian Economy Slipped Into 'Technical Stagnation,' Sberbank CEO Warns ... September 4, 2025 onlyfactsplease Russian Economy Slipped Into ‘Technical Stagnation,’ Sberbank CEO Warns Sept. 4, 2025 Russia’s economy slipped into “technical stagnation” in the second quarter of this year, according to Sberbank CEO German Gref, who on Thursday repeated his past warnings that the Russian Central Bank’s tight monetary policy risked tipping the country into recession. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Gref also said that July and August data suggested growth was now approaching zero. “A main driver, of course, is the key interest rate. According to our internal estimates [at Sberbank], the rate will be around 14% by year-end. Is that enough for the economy to start recovering? In our view, it is not,” the banker added. “Given the current level of inflation, recovery can only be expected when the rate is at 12% or lower.” Russia’s Central Bank had raised its key rate to a two-decade high of 21% in September 2024 to combat surging inflation, largely driven by spending on the military. Although policymakers have since lowered the rate to 18%, signaling a gradual shift away from their fi…

Sberbank's Gref Warns: Russian Recession Looms Without Rate Cuts Published byGlobal Banking & Finance Review Posted on September 4, 2025 · Last updated: September 4, 2025 By Olesya Astakhova VLADIVOSTOK, Russia (Reuters) -Sberbank CEO German Gref, one of Russia's most powerful bankers, warned on Thursday that the economy was stagnating and that unless the central bank slashed interest rates then the country would fall into recession. Russia's war economy grew at 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, far faster than G7 countries, despite multiple rounds of Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but it is slowing sharply under the weight of high interest rates. Russia's highest military spending since the Cold War has stoked inflation, which prompted the central bank to raise its key interest rate to 21% in October, the highest level since the early years of President Vladimir Putin's rule in 2003. The central bank cut to 20% in June and then to 18% in July, but there have been a series of warnings from senior officials about the fate of the economy, which they say is still shackled by the crippling cost of credit. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of…

Sberbank chief Gref says Russian economy 'cannot survive ... - Meduza Sberbank chief Herman Gref is calling on Russia’s central bank to cut the key interest rate, warning that the Russian economy “cannot survive long” under current conditions. Gref made the remarks at Sberbank’s annual shareholders meeting, the Russian business news outlet RBC reported. The Russian economy has already been “overcooled,” he said. “Look at how many difficulties are emerging right now, including problems in the energy sector. We have a whole range of non-macroeconomic factors that are driving up prices,” Gref said, without specifying which factors he had in mind. The day before, RBC noted, Russia’s central bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said the regulator would factor in Russia’s fuel crisis when updating its macroeconomic forecast ahead of the next key rate meeting, scheduled for July 24. Zabotkin had said in early June,according toForbes Russia, that Russia’s central bank saw no signs of economic “overcooling.” In his view, such a trend would manifest as a “release of labor resources” — but unemployment in Russia remains at a historically low level according to official data. В последний…

Russian Economy at Risk of Overcooling, Sberbank Executive Warns June 18, 2025 Denis Voronin / Moskva News Agency Russia’s economy is at risk of cooling down excessively amid a prolonged period of high interest rates and could face challenges returning to a growth path, a top executive at Russia's largest lender, Sberbank, has warned. “There is a danger of the economy overcooling and that we may not be able to come out of this slump, and further growth could be very restrained,” Sberbank First Deputy CEO Alexander Vedyakhin told Reuters on Wednesday. Vedyakhin projected Russia’s GDP to grow just 1 to 2% this year, less than the government's projection of 2.5%. Russia’s Central Bank lowered its key interest rate to 20% from a historic high of 21% this month, attempting to keep inflationary pressure from the overheating war economy at bay while responding to growing political pressure to ease borrowing costs. “My sense is that, most likely, the Central Bank's key rate could be around 17% by the end of this year. I don't think the Central Bank will sharply reduce the rate as there is a risk that inflation could rise again,” Vedyakhin said. He argued that a more meaningful rate cut is…

Russian Economy Slipped Into 'Technical Stagnation,' Sberbank CEO Warns ... Sep. 4, 2025 German Gref. Vyacheslav Prokofyev/TASS Russia’s economy slipped into “technical stagnation” in the second quarter of this year, according to Sberbank CEO German Gref, who on Thursday repeated his past warnings that the Russian Central Bank’s tight monetary policy risked tipping the country into recession. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Gref also said that July and August data suggested growth was now approaching zero. “A main driver, of course, is the key interest rate. According to our internal estimates [at Sberbank], the rate will be around 14% by year-end. Is that enough for the economy to start recovering? In our view, it is not,” the banker added. “Given the current level of inflation, recovery can only be expected when the rate is at 12% or lower.” Russia’s Central Bank had raised its key rate to a two-decade high of 21% in September 2024 to combat surging inflation, largely driven by spending on the military. Although policymakers have since lowered the rate to 18%, signaling a gradual shift away from their fight against inflation, they have refrained from more drastic cuts, a…

Sberbank CEO Renews Call for Interest Rate Cut - The Moscow Times June 30, 2026 Herman Gref. Sergei Kulakov / Roscongress The CEO of Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, renewed his calls Tuesday for the Central Bank to cut its key interest rate, arguing that policymakers have poured too much cold water on the economy in their fight against inflation driven by military spending. “An economy simply cannot survive for a prolonged period under the weight of the extremely high real interest rates we’re seeing today,” Herman Gref said during Sberbank’s annual shareholders meeting. Russia’s Central Bank hiked its key interest rate to a two-decade high of 21% in late 2024 as inflation surged. While it has since pursued a policy of monetary easing — lowering borrowing costs to 14.25% earlier this month — the regulator recently warned that a widening budget deficit and growing problems in the domestic fuel market may force it to keep rates elevated for longer. Gref called it “completely irrational” to use monetary policy to combat inflation caused by what he described as “one-off factors,” including the global energy crunch sparked by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, as well as Ukrainian a…

Russia on the Brink: Economic Indicators Signal Impending Recession Published by Rajveer Singh on Russia’s economic landscape is showing troubling signs of an imminent downturn, as confirmed by its Economy Minister, Maxim Reshetnikov, during his remarks at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. With a rare degree of candor, he acknowledged that the nation is on the cusp of a recession, citing declining business sentiment and deteriorating economic indicators as warning signs. This statement, coming from a senior government official, marks a significant shift in public acknowledgment of the country’s economic fragility.The symptoms are increasingly clear. Russia’s central bank recently cut its benchmark interest rate from 21% to 20%—the first such move since 2022. In conventional economic theory, central banks lower interest rates to stimulate investment and spending when an economy is cooling. But in Russia’s case, this move reflects more than just standard macroeconomic management. It is a signal that the government recognizes the pressures mounting beneath the surface—pressures driven by shrinking consumer demand, sluggish industrial production, geopolitical isolati…

Russia's economy is under depressive pressure – Sberbank CEO Russia's economy is already overheating in reverse, with high interest rates exerting further pressure and investment falling sharply, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said, arguing the central bank's monetary policy has reached a dead end, Interfax reported on June 30. According to Gref, the Central Bank should continue cutting its key interest rate because using monetary policy to address non-macroeconomic drivers of inflation is ineffective. (By “non-macroeconomic factors,” Gref was referring to Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on Russian infrastructure.) “My view is that an economy cannot function for long under today's extremely high real interest rates. Real rates are around 10% — that is, the Central Bank's key rate minus current inflation. A 10% real rate may be appropriate in the short term to cool the economy. But what we are seeing today, in my opinion, is clear evidence that the economy has already been overcooled. The rate needs to be reduced,” Gref said at Sberbank's annual shareholders' meeting. Ad Read also: Sberbank slashes jobs as economic instability grips Russia He said Russia is currently facing numerous …