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Quick Bites | IMF upgrades global growth forecasts - Clime Quick Bite – IMF upgrades global growth forecasts The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its global growth forecast amid signs that President Trump’s trade war will do less damage to the world economy than initially feared, with a weaker dollar cushioning the impact of tariffs on US trading partners. The Fund’s updated World Economic Outlook shows that global growth is expected to be 3% this year and 3.1% in 2026, up from previous projections published in April of 2.8% and 3%, respectively. The world’s two largest economies, the US and China, both also received upgrades as did Australia. The IMF’s chief economist said that he saw a “tenuous resilience” in the global economy despite the chaotic rollout of steep tariffs on US trading partners in recent months. He added that growth was less affected because many of the levies were ultimately not as severe as originally planned. Source: IMF, FT “Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. The forecast for 2025 is 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the reference forecast of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) and 0.1 perc…

India retains growth edge with 6.6% growth, World Bank forecasts; cuts global outlook Global growth forecasts are down to 2.5% for 2026, with the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices cited as key reasons. Despite this, India is set to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy, projected at 6.6% in fiscal year 2026-27. However, higher energy costs may moderate India's growth, while fiscal deficits are expected to widen across South Asia.

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast as Middle East war weighs on outlook The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3% from 3.1%, citing the impact of the Middle East war, elevated inflation pressures and risks from trade fragmentation. In its updated World Economic Outlook report, titled “Global Economy at the Crosscurrents of War and Technology,” the IMF also raised its 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.2%. The Fund said the moderate slowdown reflects the effects of the Middle East war, partly offset by demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle due to advances in artificial intelligence and wider adoption of the technology. Global headline inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027, indicating that the disinflation trend has stalled, the IMF said. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, with renewed escalation in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and a possible correction in technology-related expectations among key threats, according to the report. The IMF kept its 2026 growth forecast for the US unchanged at 2.3%, while cutting the eurozone fo…

IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3% but projects rebound in 2027 The IMF has cut its global growth forecast for the second time this year, flagging "uncertainty and risks" brought on by the war in Iran. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez responds to threats from Donald Trump that the US will cut off all trade with his country. And, the heatwave is putting France's power system is under pressure.

IMF expects global GDP to gain 3% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027 According to the report, the global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage point compared to the optimistic growth scenario presented in the IMF’s April report

IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3%, Eyes Rebound in 2027 Published byGlobal Banking & Finance Review Posted on July 8, 2026 · Last updated: July 8, 2026 By Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON, July 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to 3.0%, warning of ongoing risks posed by the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and potential corrections in market expectations for AI. The global lender said the world economy had dodged a sharper downturn as a result of the war, with demand-driven momentum in the tech sector helping to offset a war-related drop in energy supplies. Growth should rebound to 3.4% in 2027, but that is still below the average of 3.5% seen in 2024 and 2025. The IMF raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% from April, but said it should drop to 3.9% next year. Energy prices were 25% higher now than before the war began on February 28 and would remain higher, it said. The new forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will start to reopen in mid-July, reaching prewar conditions by March 2027. "The global economy as a whole has, so far, weathered the shock…

IMF cuts 2026 world growth forecast, citing Iran war fallout Global economy to grow 3 percent in 2026, as AI demand partly offsets energy shock from Iran war, IMF says.

World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.5% as Iran war lifts energy ... A woman walks past the World Bank building in Washington on April 5, 2021. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)PRNTO WASHINGTON (AP) — The economic fallout from the Iran war — higher energy prices and increased uncertainty — will drag down global growth this year, the World Bank said Thursday. The 189-country anti-poverty agency expects the world economy to grow just 2.5% this year, its weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic upended global commerce six years ago. The bank downgraded its forecast for growth in two-thirds of the world’s countries. But the United States, which started the war by joining Israel to attack Iran on Feb. 28, is being spared a downgrade. The World Bank still expects the world’s biggest economy to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from a January forecast and up a tick from 2.1% in 2025. As a major energy producer, the world’s biggest economy is more resilient than countries that import their oil and natural gas, and the U.S. economy is benefiting from big tax cuts and booming investment in artificial intelligence. Butordinary Americans are still frustratedbyhigher gasoline and …

World Bank cuts global growth outlook to 2.5%, lowest since COVID The World Bank slashed on Thursday its global ​growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% due to the war in the Middle East, warning growth could slow to just 1.3% if energy supply disruptio...

IMF lowers 2026 global growth outlook to 3%, projects 3.4% growth in ... IMF lowers 2026 global growth outlook to 3%. (AI generated image for representation purposes) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday trimmed its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3% from the 3.1% it had projected in April. It also forecast global growth of 3.4% for 2027. The IMF said that the projections are “down from the average of 3.5 percent observed in 2024–25 and broadly unchanged on a cumulative basis compared with the forecasts in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO).” Also Read: IMF sees India among fastest-growing major economies despite trimming FY27 GDP growth aim to 6.4% The report, titled World Economic Outlook Update for July, said the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), driven by strong demand, has partly offset the economic impact of the war in the Middle East. It describes the global economy as being caught in the "crosscurrents of war and technology”. Live Events According to the IMF, countries' economic performance is increasingly being determined by two factors: their exposure to the war-induced energy shock and their position in the global technology value…

IMF forecasts global trade growth of 3.5% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027 Despite the upward revision of the trade growth forecast, the report’s authors noted that global trade has slowed sharply compared to 2025

IMF cuts global growth forecast assuming Strait of Hormuz opens mid ... The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesdaylowered its global growth forecast for 2026by a marginal 10 basis points (bps) to 3% on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz begins re-opening in mid-July and the situation broadly returns to prewar state by March 2027 – even as US President Donald Trump tore up the ceasefire with Iran. Speaking in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday,Trump said the ceasefire was a “just a waste of time”.Hours earlier, the US hit over 80 Iranian military targets after merchant ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington also revoking a license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil. While released on Wednesday at 6:30pm India time, the IMF’s economic projections were prepared earlier. “The most imminent risk to the baseline forecast stems from developments in the Middle East,” the IMF said in a quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook report. “Renewed conflict would propagate through a further increase in commodity prices and extended volatility, supply shortages, and exchange rate pressures. The muted increase in oil prices and their contained impact on…

IMF lowers 2026 world growth forecast as West Asia risks linger Global economic growth is now estimated at 3% this year, IMF said, down from 3.1% in its April forecast

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 | DESA Publications Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 per cent estimated for 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent. During 2025, unexpected resilience to sharp increases in U.S. tariffs, supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, helped sustain growth. However, underlying weaknesses persist. Subdued investment and limited fiscal space are weighing on economic activity, raising the prospect that the world economy could settle into a persistently slower growth path than in the pre-pandemic era. The report notes that a partial easing of trade tensions helped limit disruptions to international commerce. However, the impact of higher tariffs, coupled with elevated macroeconomic uncertainties, is expected to become more evident in 2026. Financial conditions have eased amid monetary loosening and improved sentiment, but risks remain high given stretched valuations—especially in sectors linked to rapid advances in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, high debt levels and borrowing costs are constraining policy space, especially for many developing ec…

World Bank Says global growth to slow to 2.5%, two-thirds of economies face hit from US-Iran war The world economy will expand 2.5% in 2026, the Washington-based lender said in a report published Thursday. That’s down from a January forecast of 2.6%.

IMF lowers global growth forecast again citing war, trade and lofty AI ... Open this photo in gallery: The International Monetary Fund inched its 2026 global economic outlook lower again to 3.0 per cent. Sees rebound to 3.4 per cent in 2027. Benoit Tessier/Reuters Share Save for later Please log in to bookmark this story. Log In Create Free Account The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to 3.0 per cent, warning of ongoing risks posed by the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and potential corrections in market expectations for AI. The global lender said the world economy had dodged a sharper downturn as a result of the war, with demand-driven momentum in the tech sector helping to offset a war-related drop in energy supplies. Growth should rebound to 3.4 per cent in 2027, but that is still below the average of 3.5 per cent seen in 2024 and 2025. The IMF raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7 per cent from April, but said it should drop to 3.9 per cent next year. Energy prices were 25 per cent higher now than before the war began on Feb. 28 and would remain higher, it said. The ne…

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IMF cuts 2026 world growth forecast, flags risks from new Mideast fighting The IMF cut its 2026 global growth projection again Wednesday, flagging "uncertainty and risks" to the economic outlook as fighting reignited in the Middle East. "Developments overnight illustrate the uncertainty and risks that surround the outlook," said Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director at the IMF's research department.