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Future scenarios of Russia-China relations: not great, not terrible 25 September, 2024 Alexander Ryumin AP/TT The future of Russia-China relations will have a decisive impact far beyond the borders ofthe two authoritarian partners.How Moscow’s and Beijing’s strategic, political, economic and military ties develop will affect security and prosperity in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and on the global stage in the intensifying battle between democracy and autocracy. At the same time, the trajectory of their relationship in the short, medium and long term isnot set in stone and will depend on numerous factors inside, between and beyond Russiaand China.These will include structural bilateral factors that either enable or limit stronger relations, as well as external factors in both the European and the Indo-Pacific theatres. How these various factors will develop and interact across different timeframes remainsan open question.This report identifies three overarching scenarios for the future of Russia-China relations, as well as their development paths, likelihood and implications: The West must plan for this full range of possible outcomes across domains and their impacts. Crucial…

China and Russia: Alternate financial system - GIS Reports Moscow and Beijing want to counter the West by reshaping global trade and payment systems. Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping exchange documents during a signing ceremony in Beijing, China, on May 16, 2024. The two leaders seek to create an alternate financial system to enable their economies to function without Western oversight. © Getty Images × In a nutshell Western sanctions have restricted Russia’s access to capital and transactions China balances supporting Russia and accessing Western markets Moscow and Beijing are working toward an alternate BRICS payment system This report on Chinese-Russian finance models is the first in a two-part series on the mechanics of Sino-Russian relations. The second, focusing on economics, can be found here . The war Russia has been waging in Ukraine since February 2022 has led to the United States and other Western countries imposing sanctions on the Kremlin and potentially on its enablers. One of the most important aspects of these sanctions is financial. Moscow and Beijing are constantly looking for countermeasures to get around these restr…

Russia, China find payments workaround as US sanctions net widens ... MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia-China trade options have narrowed since the U.S. imposed sanctions last week on the only Russian bank branch in China, but President Vladimir Putin’s Chinese visit last month has helped ensure the two countries have payment alternatives for now, three sources said. Since Putin’s visit, specially authorised banks have been set up in border regions which allow Russian firms to open non-resident accounts (NRA) with Chinese banks, a step that has become more important since VTB’s Shanghai branch was targeted with sanctions, they told Reuters. Trade between Russia and China ballooned to a record $240 billion in 2023. Maintaining the flow of income and goods, which is crucial to the Kremlin, depends on ensuring smooth payments. The workaround, which involves smaller, regional banks that can for the time being fly below the U.S. sanctions radar, shows how Moscow and Beijing are having to take increasingly complex steps to ensure bilateral payments continue to be made but at the same time potentially exposing some Chinese financial firms to U.S. sanctions as they look to circumvent restr…

China Will Help Rebuild Ukraine - But That Comes With Risks This September, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporationannounceda $75 million equity commitment to the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Pursuant tothe U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Dealsigned in April, the joint fund will use the revenue from natural resource extraction to finance Ukraine’s economic recovery. However, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery over the next decade in Ukraine isestimatedto be $524 billion, which is almost 2.8 times the country’s nominal GDP for 2024. The demise of USAID, disagreements over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, and constant bickering between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy all suggest that Kyiv cannot expect anyMarshall Plan-like support to aid its recovery. Meanwhile, the EU’s ability to meaningfully assist with reconstruction beyond the50 billion euroit pledgedin2024is unlikely. Europe is currently preoccupied with investing in its own defenses amid deteriorating relations with the United States and loomingdiscussionsover a withdrawal of U.S. troops from the continent. As Ukraine’s Western partners have wavered, Beij…

Russia and China Forge New Payment System to Counter Western Sanctions Ukraine War: Russia’s New Strategy in 2025 – What NATO Fears Most by Russia Desk April 11, 2025 [Image: nycla] Share this Linkedin X Facebook Telegram Pinterest Whatsapp Email In a significant development aimed at reshaping the global financial landscape, Russia and China are poised to sign an agreement establishing a new payment mechanism. This initiative seeks to facilitate bilateral trade between the two nations while reducing dependence on Western financial systems, particularly the US dollar.​ The forthcoming agreement underscores a broader strategy by both Moscow and Beijing to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and financial restrictions. By creating an alternative payment system, the two countries aim to ensure uninterrupted trade and financial transactions, even amidst geopolitical tensions.​ This move is part of a larger trend among BRICS nations to explore financial mechanisms that offer greater autonomy from Western-dominated systems. The development of such alternatives is seen as crucial for maintaining economic sovereignty and fostering resilient international partnerships.​ The establishme…

Russia and China's 'No-Limits' Trade Partnership Is Losing Steam By Moscow Times Reporter May 22, 2026 A freight train in the city of Zabaikalsk on the Russian-Chinese border. Evgeny Epanchintsev / TASS On his visit to China this week, President Vladimir Putin touted Russia’s “no-limits” cooperation with Beijing, Moscow’s key trade partner and a critical economic lifeline since its rupture with the West in 2022. And judging by the lavish welcome the Russian leader received in the Chinese capital, one might think the relationship has nowhere to go but up. Yet despite Putin and Xi Jinping’s proclamations of an ever-deepening partnership, analysts say the two countries may be approaching the limits of what the relationship can deliver economically. China has largely replaced Europe as a supplier of manufactured goods and a buyer of Russian energy exports since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That has helped bilateral trade soar 55% between 2021 and 2025, surpassing the two countries’ shared target of $200 billion set in 2019. Bilateral trade fell 7% to $227.6 billion in 2025, marking the first decline since the pandemic year of 2020. Russian exports to China dropped 3.9% to $124.8 bill…

Russia's Dependence On China Is Deep And Wide — It May Also Be ... -Analysis- Russian President Vladimir Putin has scored a “huge own goal” with the war in Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns . He was referring to Russia’s losses at the front, international sanctions, the expansion of NATO and Russia’s growing dependence on China — something that has escalated in recent years and may well become one of the enduring challenges Putin’s government has created for Russia. The risks associated with this final point, the deepening dependence on China, are substantial — and breaking free from it will prove to be a formidable task. [shortcode-Subscribe-to-Ukraine-daily-box] Russia’s evolving relationship with China has become a focal point in international geopolitics and economics. This transformation has been catalyzed by a combination of factors, including Western sanctions, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and China’s meteoric rise in the global economy since the early 2000s. The shift in Russia’s economic alignment toward China began in earnest in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict and the resulting Western sanctions. P…

Pragmatic trio: China, Russia, North Korea's triangle of convenience The war in Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions have dramatically reshaped Moscow’s external priorities. Facing isolation from European and American markets, Russia has pivoted decisively eastward, rediscovering strategic and economic opportunities with China and North Korea. What has emerged is not a formal alliance but a pragmatic network of survival — a triangle defined less by shared ideology than by mutual necessity and the constraints of sanctions. Russia’s pivot to the East is not new, but the urgency imposed by sanctions has intensified it. China, Russia’s largest trading partner, provides both a reliable market and a critical supply of energy, technology and manufactured goods. In 2023, China–Russia trade hit a record US$240 billion. Meanwhile, North Korea – long isolated and dependent on China – has found renewed value in a Russia willing to engage outside formal international frameworks, with an increasing share of its trade — arguably over 90% — flowing through Chinese channels. For Russia, engagement with Pyongyang is largely pragmatic. Moscow seeks low-cost labor, logistical support and occas…

China's Strategy in the Ukraine War and the Shaping of a Post-Conflict ... Introduction Despite ongoing peace talks spearheaded by U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues with seemingly no end in sight. While China might not play a primary role in peace negotiations, it nonetheless has an important stake in the outcome of the conflict. This paper seeks to assess Beijing’s calculus and potential role in brokering peace in the Ukraine conflict within the context of great power diplomacy among Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels. Faced with Russia’s unrelenting military campaign, Washington, Brussels and Beijing have each adopted distinct positions on the war. The United States, as the key peace broker, continues to shift its policies to accommodate competing peace deal demands from Kyiv and Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU is increasingly aligning itself with Ukraine’s position, while China promotes neutral diplomatic initiatives that merely amplify a pro-Russian stance. Because China’s initiatives largely align with Russia’s position on the war, they have done little to realistically support ceasefire efforts. Rather, they are designed to portr…

Thousands of Chinese Firms Are Supplying Russia's War Machine ... By Micah McCartney Reporter 0 Share Newsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search. Prefer Newsweek on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. A new investigative report has identified thousands of Chinese companies doing business with Russian enterprises that benefit Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry via email for comment outside of regular office hours. Why It Matters China is Russia's key ally but has presented itself as a neutral party since Moscow launched a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It says it has not provided any weapons or military aid to Russia. Read More on World However, the United States and European allies say China has been a “ decisive enabler " for keeping Moscow going in the war. They say China has exploited loopholes in international sanctions to export electronic components, machine tools, unmanned aerial vehicles, and other dual‑use items that have been invaluable to sustaining the Russian war machine. Chinese officials stress they do not provide lethal weapons to Russia and hav…

US NATO ambassador warns China over 'subsidizing' Russia's war in Ukraine News Feed US NATO ambassador warns China over 'subsidizing' Russia's war in Ukraine July 22, 2025 8:32 pm • 2 min read Prefer on Google by Tim Zadorozhnyy U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker in Washington, DC, US, on March 4, 2025. (Kent Nishimura / Bloomberg via Getty Images) U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker warned on July 22 that China may face consequences for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine if Moscow rejects a peace settlement. "I think they need to be called out for their subsidizing this killing that is happening on the battlefields in Ukraine," Whitaker told Fox Business . " China thinks they're fighting a proxy war through Russia. They want to keep the U.S. and our allies occupied with this war, so that we can't focus on our other strategic challenges." The remarks follow U.S. President Donald Trump's July 14 announcement that the U.S. will impose "severe" secondary tariffs on Russia unless it agrees to end the war within 50 days. "The secondary sanctions are going to be significant," Whitaker added. "They're going to hit countries that are buying Russian oil , whether that's China, I…

A Decadal Review of Russia-China Economic Relations The Russia-China partnership has grown steadily in the past decade, driven by Moscow’s widening rift with the European Union. As Western markets closed to Russia in 2014, Beijing emerged as an economic partner, importing Russian energy, defence goods, metals and minerals, timber, and other natural resources and exporting manufactured goods, technology, and dual-use goods. The partnership reached new heights following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with bilateral trade surging from US$147 billion in 2021 to US$240 billion in 2023. This development has fuelled speculation about a potential Russia-China alliance to counter the West. However, this paper argues that the structural asymmetry and conflicting interests within the Russia-China economic partnership hinder its potential for long-term cooperation. Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash, “A Decadal Review of Russia-China Economic Relations,”ORF Occasional Paper No. 462, February 2025, Observer Research Foundation. The year 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, with Beijing emerging as a critical partner for Moscow in trade, commerce, energy, and defence. B…

Russia's river strategy is the next Eurasian power shift While the world’s gaze is fixed on Donald Trump and if he can broker peace in Ukraine, Moscow is quietly launching a far bigger game. As Washington obsesses over Beijing, Russia is weaving together rivers, railways, and drone corridors into a new logistics superpower, aiming not just to recover from sanctions but to dominate the Eurasian continent. Step by step, Russia is expanding its reach by building new shipping routes, reviving old canal networks, and rolling out new technologies like drones – to reshape the map of Eurasia to its advantage. March 2, 2026 -Maryna Venneri-Articles and Commentary Winter view of the Volga river near the city of Kimry. Photo: Shutterstock Russia is adeptly exploiting the US-China rivalry and anti-China policies to reposition itself as a central force in Eurasia and the emerging multipolar world. Its ambitious integration of rivers, railways, and drone technology is reshaping regional logistics and trade, reducing dependency on the West and deepening ties with China on Russian terms. These strategies will enhance Moscow’s influence and resilience, especially in Eurasia and the Global South…

Future Scenarios of Russia-China Relations: Not Great, Not Terrible ... 25 September, 2024 NKK/SCEEUS Report No. 4 The future of Russia-China relations will have a decisive impact far beyond the borders of the two authoritarian partners.How Moscow’s and Beijing’s strategic, political, economic and military ties develop will affect security and prosperity in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and on the global stage in the intensifying battle between democracy and autocracy. At the same time the trajectory of their relationship in the short, medium and long term is not set in stone and will depend on numerous factors inside, between and beyond Russia and China. These will include structural bilateral factors that either enable or limit stronger relations, as well as external factors in both the European and the Indo-Pacific theatres. How these various factors will develop and interact across different timeframes remains an open question.This report identifies three overarching scenarios for the future of Russia-China relations, as well as their development paths, likelihood and implications: The West must plan for this full range of possible outcomes across domains and their impacts…

The China-Russia Meta-Threat: The Architecture of Authoritarian Power By Christopher Walker If, in 2016, an analyst had suggested that less than a decade later China would serve as the economic and logistical linchpin enabling Russia to wage a full-scale war against Ukraine, such a prediction would have struck most observers as unlikely, or even outlandish. If the same analyst had proposed that China and Russia, as part of this major war effort, could cooperate with Iran to mass-produce lethal drones and thereby kill many thousands of Ukrainians, the scenario might have seemed similarly far-fetched. Even the bold and seemingly clairvoyant expert in this hypothetical would probably balk at the notion that thousands of North Korean troops would be fighting at the Russians’ side and learning new methods of modern warfare, and that ammunition from Pyongyang would account for roughly half of Russia’s artillery expenditure on the Ukrainian front in the second half of 2025.1 Yet as of early 2026, all these examples of authoritarian cooperation had converged to sustain the longest and most horrific land war in Europe since World War II. It is fair to argue that policymakers and other …

The Pivot to the East Has Succeeded. But There Are Nuances Russia’s “pivot to the East” began long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From the outset, Moscow conceived it as a strategic signal to the West: Kremlin had an alternative to partnership with the developed democracies. It is no coincidence that the turning point in relations with China came in 2005. That year Russia transferred small tracts of land in the Far East to the PRC, completing the border demarcation process; conducted its first joint military exercises with Beijing; and joined China in demanding that the United States withdraw its military bases from Central Asia. By then Moscow had already fallen out not only with Washington after the American invasion of Iraq but also with its European partners in the aftermath of Ukraine’s so-called Orange Revolution. The partnership has proved remarkably resilient. It has survived multiple stresses, and Russia’s war against Ukraine has, if anything, only strengthened it—by stripping Moscow of virtually all its former partners. Today it can be stated with confidence that, in economic terms, the “pivot to the East” has been accomplished. Russia has ceased to be Europe…

The China-Russia Axis Takes Shape - Foreign Policy Analysis The China-Russia Axis Takes Shape The bond has been decades in the making, but Russia’s war in Ukraine has tightened their embrace. September 11, 2023, 11:30 PM By Bonny Lin , the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. An illustration shows half faces of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin for a story about a ChiRussia alliance. Alex Nabaum illustration for Foreign Policy Listen to this article Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN The cover of Foreign Policy's fall 2023 print magazine shows a jack made up of joined hands lifting up the world. Cover text reads: The Alliances That Matter Now: Multilateralism is at a dead end, but powerful blocs are getting things done." This article appears in the Fall 2023 print issue of FP. Read more from the issue. In July, nearly a dozen Chinese and Russian warships conducted 20 combat exercises in the Sea of Japan before beginning a 2,300-nautical-mile joint patrol, including into the waters near Alaska. These two operations, according to the Chinese defense mini…

Friends with Benefits: How Russia's Opportunistic Partnerships ... - CSIS Photo: Contributor/Getty Images Commentary byAstrid Chevreuil,Léonie Allard,andNicholas Lokker Published February 27, 2025 Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has been at the root of its acceleratingcollaborationwith North Korea, Iran, and China. While Moscow leans on these three countries to prop up its war effort, these mutuallybeneficial relationshipsare simultaneously supporting the needs of its partners in the realm of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and is going beyond its initial purpose to fuel a global arms race. These mutually beneficial ties include diplomatic support and technological transfers from Russia toNorth Korea(DPRK) andIran, as well as more concrete cooperation such as thesupplyof highly enriched uranium from Russia to China. Russia’s nuclear partnerships undermine the nuclear order with impunity. As one of the five nuclear-weapon states under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Russia has historicallyplayeda key role in preventing nuclear proliferation. Moscowsupported the denuclearizationof the Korean Peninsula and leveraged itsdiplo…

China-Russia Strategic Alignment and Its Implications for U.S. Global ... Posted in Geopolitics March 9, 2026 The recent statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlights a strategic reality that is increasingly difficult for Washington to ignore: Russia now possesses in China a powerful external pillar that enables it to sustain long-term pressure on U.S. global positions . For the United States, this development is particularly troubling because Moscow no longer appears as an isolated revisionist actor. Instead, it is increasingly part of a broader geopolitical alignment that challenges Washington’s ability to define the political, legal, and economic rules of the international system. The risk for the United States lies not only in the existence of cooperation between the two states but in the political framing of that relationship. Beijing and Moscow increasingly portray their ties as an alliance “as solid as a rock,” characterized by high mutual trust, “back-to-back” strategic support, and close coordination on key international issues . Such rhetoric signals an attempt to institutionalize strategic alignment without the formal obligations of a military alliance. For M…

China expanding aid for Russia's war, Western officials say China increased its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2025 and is likely to deepen cooperation with Moscow further this year, Western officials said, casting doubt on efforts by European leaders to improve relations with Beijing. Recommended Video President Xi Jinping has become more assertive and confident in his supporting Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and attempts by the Europeans to persuade their Chinese counterparts to help end the war have become more challenging over the past year, the officials said. Russia’s war in Ukraine wouldn’t be able to continue without ongoing Chinese support, particularly the export of dual-use components and critical minerals used in Russian drone production, the officials said. They described Beijing as the key facilitator of the war. “China could call Vladimir Putin and end this war tomorrow,” US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said during a panel late Friday at the Munich Security Conference. “This war is being completely enabled by China.” The private assessments, shared with Bloomberg on condition of anonymity, are more pessimistic than most Western leaders’ public statements o…

China and Russiaʼs Competition for Central Asia China and Russia have deepened their strategic partnership to counter Western influence, but mutual distrust remains at the lower bureaucratic levels. Their interests overlap in Central Asia, where cooperation and competition are in constant tension. Recorded Futureʼs Insikt Group has tracked both Chinese and Russian state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaigns targeting many of the same Central Asian organizations, a trend that reflects rising geopolitical competition. China is likely to emerge as the dominant power in Central Asia by the 2030s as Russiaʼs influence wanes following its invasion of Ukraine. Cyber espionage from both states is expected to intensify as this geopolitical shift occurs, with Beijing also expanding its digital presence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road and the Digital Silk Road. Organizations operating in Central Asia should be extra vigilant against state-sponsored spearphishing campaigns, assess supply-chain risks, and safeguard sensitive communications given espionage threats. Both China and Russia have deepened their involvement in Central Asia. Over the last decade, China has invested hea…

China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder Share Table of Contents Share China and Russia have expanded trade and defense ties over the past decade, but they’re not formal allies. Experts say Russia’s war in Ukraine could be a turning point in the relationship. After a long history of disputes, China and Russia have expanded their military, economic, and diplomatic relations in the twenty-first century. The countries celebrated seventy-five years of diplomatic relations in 2024. Though their ties have substantially increased, China and Russia are not natural partners or formal allies, and experts question the strength of the relationship. Beijing and Moscow’s cooperation is driven by their desire to curb American power and challenge U.S. hegemony, despite ongoing challenges to their relationship. What are backgrounders? Authoritative, accessible, and regularly updated Backgrounders on hundreds of foreign policy topics. Who Makes them? The entire CFR editorial team, with regular reviews by fellows and subject matter experts. Introduction China and Russia have a long, complicated history together, marked by periods of …

"...cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is allowing Russian forces to keep pace with Ukrainian innovations while China gains the opportunity to test its wares under combat conditions. Although the threat of increased Western sanctions continues to place constraints on their..."

Russia and China Have Drawn Closer: Three Ways to Wedge Them Apart The goal of disrupting the strong bilateral relationship between the Russian Federation and People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a key point of interest for American policymakers. Yet discussion often stays at a high level or focuses on challenges rather than solutions, leading to an analytic dead-end. But the need for real solutions is acute: the so-called “no-limits” Russian-PRC alignment, already strengthened over the 2010s by military and economic cooperation, has significantly deepened since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Indeed, it is an important reason for Russia’s sustained capabilities in the face of a multiyear US-led sanctions regime. Both Moscow and Beijing have worked actively across their portfolios of interest to deepen the existing relationship. Russia-PRC trade turnover is now close to $250 billion. Russia is actively sharing military technology such as jet engines, according to public reports. The PRC continues to sell dual-use goods that the Russian military-industrial complex requires for the war, including computer chips and machine tools. And both sides have managed to avoid anta…

Opinion: Russia 'looks East' – Surging logistics and trade flows across ... With China-Russia trade leaping many-fold since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both sides have forged stronger cross-border transport and freight links, says US academic Chen Xiangming. However, this comes with challenges, due to Russia’s historical orientation toward Europe and severely underdeveloped Far Eastern regional and local economies. In June 2022, four months after Russian military trucks carrying soldiers rolled across the border to invade Ukraine, the first freight truck carrying cargo crossed a new bridge between the Chinese border city of Heihe and its Russian counterpart of Blagoveshchensk on the Amur River. Later in 2022, the first freight train crossed the new Tongjiang-Nizhneleninskoye bridge, followed by the launch of container trains in July 2023. These new transport links across the eastern China-Russia border contrast sharply with the battle-ruined borderlands between western Russia and eastern Ukraine. If the war in Ukraine represents the new (and older) geopolitical reality facing European Russia and the eastern Europe, the new cross-border shipping links between China and Russia ref…

Surging logistics and trade flows across China-Russia border Regional Dongbei JiangZheHu Shandong Sichuan Politics ASEAN China-US Relations Chinese Communist Party Cross-Strait Relations Governance International Relations Military Soft Power Economy Belt and Road Initiative China-US Trade War Digital Currency Domestic Consumption Manufacturing Property Market Stock Market Supply Chain Tariffs Transport Technology Artificial Intelligence China-US Tech War Cybersecurity Energy Hi-Tech Manufacturing Innovation Semiconductors Space History Cold War Colonialism Cultural Revolution Memories Nanyang Second Sino-Japanese War World War II Society China workplace China youths Education Entertainment Family Gender Involution Marriage Population Social Media Culture Architecture Arts Death Festival Food Heritage & Tradition Language Music Nature Philosophy Cartoon Videos Explainers Shorts ThinkChina Conversations ThinkChina Forum Vox Pops With China-Russia trade leaping many-fold since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both sides have forged stronger cross-border transport and freight links, says US academic Chen Xiangming. Ho…

The Russian "Pivot to the East": Geopolitics, Domestic Development, and ... Abstract This text provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's "pivot to the East" strategy, a political and economic reorientation towards Asia. The author, Zhao Huasheng, argues that this strategy is driven by geopolitical and national development imperatives rather than a fundamental shift in cultural identity. Historically, Russia has long focused on the East, but the meaning of this concept has varied over time: from a question of cultural identity in the 19th century to a colonial expansionist move in the first "pivot," and now to a contemporary need to rebalance international relations. The current breakdown of relations with Europe has made the "pivot to the East" a necessary and forced choice for Moscow. The "Pivot to the East" Strategy: A Mosaic of Necessities The "pivot to the East" is not just a response to diplomatic isolation, but a long-term national development policy. Russia must address a serious imbalance: its eastern regions, while rich in resources, are sparsely populated, economically underdeveloped, and have obsolete infrastructure. The goal is to transform these areas into new sources…

China and Russia's Economic Ties are Deeper Than You Think - CEPA The China-Russia partnership has strengthened since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with their economic cooperation expanding steadily at a time of massive Western sanctions against Moscow. Unlike Russia’s deteriorating relationships elsewhere, its strategic alignment with Beijing remains close, and is built on more than a decade of deliberate economic and geopolitical rapprochement. The two countries’ synergy stems from naturally complementary economic systems, shared geoeconomic goals, and mistrust toward the West. Russia’s economic and geopolitical dependency on China has increased as international alternatives diminished. Beijing clearly holds the upper hand in the growing relationship, yet both nations derive substantial benefits from the arrangement. Russia has gained a market for its energy resources and a vital source of consumer goods and technology, while China secures discounted access to Russian commodities and is a geopolitical partner for its opposition to the US-led international order. A potential US strategy to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, by ending the Ukraine war and lif…

Russia Under Sanctions: Diversifying Trade Routes to the East Posted in Geoeconomics October 6, 2025 After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia faced unprecedented sanctions pressure from the West. Moscow’s response was to reorient its trade flows toward Asian markets — primarily South and Southeast Asia. This “pivot to the East” is designed to compensate for the loss of traditional markets and routes by attracting new partners and building alternative infrastructure. A central role in this strategy belongs to India , with which Russia maintains a long-standing strategic partnership. Alongside India, Moscow has intensified cooperation with ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and others — which have taken a pragmatic stance and refrained from joining Western sanctions. The key elements of this process include high-level political dialogue, expanding trade (especially in energy), investment in infrastructure projects (the Northern Sea Route and new transport corridors), and the use of alternative settlement mechanisms such as national currencies and barter. Russia–India: Strategic Dialogue and Expanding Trade In late September 2025, a Russian delegation pai…

The China-Russia Axis | Council on Foreign Relations Council on Foreign Relations Articles Share Share In May 2026, when Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin in Beijing, it was the forty-fifth time the two had met in person—give or take. Xi and Putin have seen each other so often that even analysts cannot agree on the exact number. [Video: https://vimeo.com/1192642053/c9598914ef ] The increasing affinity between China and Russia is among the most consequential geopolitical developments of the last decade. Although the two powers have their differences, on every metric—economic, military, political, rhetorical—the general direction has been toward alignment rather than estrangement. That presents a problem for the United States, which since World War II has never had to contend with a pair of adversaries this powerful. [Interactive chart ] While it is tempting to believe that Washington can solve this dilemma by splitting Beijing and Moscow, the bond between them is unlikely to break. Accepting that reality is easy; dealing with it is not. The United States needs to push back against coercion and aggression by both powers, without driving them closer together. It needs to address today…

The China-Russia-North Korea Nexus: Implications for Regional Security ... Sections + × The China–Russia–North Korea Nexus: Implications for Regional Security and the War in Ukraine Roundtable Summary Report KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV via Getty Images August 13th, 2025 Download Full Report In June 2025, the Sungkyun Institute of China Studies (SICS) and the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) co-hosted a closed-door roundtable to assess the growing strategic alignment among China, Russia, and North Korea. Questions around the trilateral relationship have taken on a new level of strategic importance in the wake of Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine, deepening North Korea–Russia military cooperation and intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. The strategic convergence of these three powers — each with longstanding tensions with the West — has raised difficult questions for regional security and policy planning in Seoul, Washington, and beyond. Since 2022, North Korea and Russia have significantly deepened their cooperation, particularly around the latter’s war in Ukraine. Pyongyang has provided Moscow with artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and other mu…