Calibration · how well do verdicts age
By confidence tier
| Confidence | Total predictions | Verified | Partial | Refuted | Pending | Expired | Verify % | Decided % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| high | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| medium | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Verify % = verified / total. Decided % = (verified + partial + refuted) / total —
the rate at which predictions stop being "we'll see." Best-in-class would be a
high verify-pct in the high row and a
low verify-pct in the low row (calibrated
confidence). Anything below ~3 days of operation is mostly pending; revisit
after the corpus has had time to accumulate.
Recent decided predictions · 4
US-Iran diplomatic engagement announcements
evidence — Multiple sources confirm US-Iran diplomatic engagement announcements, including a memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian Foreign Ministry stating no agreement expected soon but US diplomat seeing good chances for agreement.
Moscow's public statements framing the attack as defensive
evidence — Multiple statements from Russia (GDelt entries from 2026-05-24 and 2026-05-25) framing the attack as defensive, including in Moscow, Russia. The DW source confirms the attack (hypersonic Oreshnik missile in Kyiv), and the Bluesky post describes new attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, cons
Ukrainian military movements near Kyiv in the 24h before the attack
evidence — The prediction was that Ukrainian military movements near Kyiv would occur within 24 hours before the attack. The evidence shows multiple entries (from GDELT) on 2026-05-24T00:00:00 indicating Ukrainian military activity in Kyiv, including 'UKRAINIAN fought MILITARY in Kiev' and
International diplomatic responses prioritizing civilian casualties over military escalation
evidence — The prediction was 'International diplomatic responses prioritizing civilian casualties over military escalation'. The evidence shows multiple diplomatic engagements involving 'CIVILIAN' and 'MILITARY' aspects, including a Secretary of State appealing MILITARY in the US, and news